Dr. Younkyoo Kim The Korean Peninsula and International Relations in Northeast Asia Hanyang University, Seoul Nov. 30, 2012 Dr. Younkyoo Kim The Korean.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
World Energy Outlook Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist Brussels, 29 April 2014.
Advertisements

©2009 The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved ©2009 The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved Chapter 6 International Business McGraw-Hill/Irwin.
1 Energy Strategy of Russia in Respect of Asia-Pacific Region and Japan V.V. Saenko Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy Japan-Russia.
Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC)
By Guillermo R. Balce, D. Sc. ASEAN Centre for Energy For presentation at the International Seminar on Northeast Asia Energy Cooperation; 18 October 2002;
Asian Regionalism? ASEAN Northeast Asia. Outline Economic development –Flying geese, falling geese Economic interdependence ASEAN Northeast Asia.
The future of European gas bne.eu. The Russian gas business.
Elena Telegina Director of the Institute of Geopolitics and Energy Security Corresponding Member of Russian Academy of Sciences Dean, International Energy.
Trade and Investment Regime - Japan’s Perspective -
OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES Natural Gas Research Programme Russian and its potential impact on the global LNG market James Henderson Natural Gas.
Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. IHS Group We are pleased to announce that on 10 October 2008 IHS completed the formal closing.
© OECD/IEA NATURAL GAS MARKET REVIEW 2006 Towards a Global Gas Market TOWARDS A GLOBAL GAS MARKET APEx CONFERENCE, Seoul 31 October 2006 Session.
NASPD June 12, 2004 Jim Cowan Maverick EVP/COO. Maverick Overview Market capitalization$1.0 billion Sales Revenue$1.3 billion HeadquartersSt. Louis, MO.
IES Key points of Russian energy strategy up to 2030 – between Europe and Asia Dr. Alexey Gromov Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy.
Russian Energy Strategy up to Period 2030: Questions, Troubles, Risks Dr. Alexey Gromov Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy Moscow, Russia.
INSTITUTE OF ENERGY STRATEGY
Liquefied Natural Gas Development in B.C. Steve Carr – Deputy Minister Ministry of Natural Gas Development – British Columbia September 10, nd LNG.
Economic Implications of Ukraine Crisis and Increase in Russian Gas Imports on Korean Gas Market and its Economy Designing Social Inquiry Ayoung Kang (IT.
Where Are More and Less Developed Countries Distributed?
TEXT Economic Crisis Ends Years of High Growth Asian countries achieved outstanding economic performance for several decades before the economic crisis.
Energy Outlook of Northeast Asia and Regional Energy Cooperation June 9, 2006 Kensuke Kanekiyo Managing Director The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan.
WHY DO WE NEED RUSSIA?. GLOBAL RESOURCE TRENDS By the end of the lesson you will; 1.Have reviewed the key consumption and and trends in stock fuels around.
European natural gas market and GDF SUEZ LNG activities Session 4 “New procurement behaviors by consumers” 2nd LNG Producer - Consumer Conference Tokyo,
Elena Telegina Director of the Institute of Geopolitics and Energy Security Corresponding Member of Russian Academy of Sciences Dean, International Energy.
March 21, 2005Page 1 Globalization of the Asian Gas Market APEC LNG Workshop Chinese Taipei March 21-23, 2005.
Thirty Eight APEC Transportation Working Group Meeting, Bali, Indonesia 1 – 5 July 2013 Thirty Eight APEC Transportation Working Group Meeting, Bali, Indonesia.
Asia’s Energy Insecurity: Markets or Mercantilism Mikkal E. Herberg The National Bureau of Asian Research Conference on Remaking Economic Strengths in.
Globalization Pg Globalization Globalization – the process by which national economies, politics, cultures, and societies become integrated with.
Russia as a key player on the world energy market Elena Telegina Director of the Institute of Geopolitics and Energy Security of Russia Member of the Board,
Gas Market Dynamics – The Ups and Downs March 11, 2009.
LNG in Japan Challenges of Tokyo Gas in the Current Turbulent Market
Japan’s FTAs/EPAs with APEC Economies Nobuhiko Sasaki Deputy Director-General APEC Senior Official METI Japan March 2006.
All Rights Reserved Prospect and Challenges in the World and Asian LNG Market September 10, 2013 The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Masakazu Toyoda.
15 July Perspective on Gas Market Integration ASEAN Gas Market situation | 1 ASCOPE Introduction.
Presentation by Ambassador Manaspas Xuto Executive Director International Institute for Trade and Development (ITD) “The Relevance of Asia Cooperation.
Rosneft’s Initial Public Offering. 2 Initial Public Offering An initial public offering (IPO) is the process of selling stock to the public of a pre-
Energy Industry Analysis 2009 November 2010 The purpose of this analysis is to document the significance of Danish energy industries for the economy and.
APEC EGCFE Workshop March 21-23, 2005 The Grand Hotel, Chinese Taipei Cooperation & Competition in Asia-Pacific LNG Market Cooperation & Competition in.
The need for a European gas index 14 th Nov 2008 Dominique Venet Executive VP Gas.
OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES Natural Gas Research Programme 1 Natural gas for Ukraine, Russia and Europe: where next? Simon Pirani Senior Research.
1 Review on the Monthly Oil Data Collection 11th March 2002 Taipei Shigeru Kimura for EDMC/IEEJ.
JSC Gazprom in World LNG trading Vladivostok LNG - a new source of energy for Asia-Pacific Victor Timoshilov Deputy Head of Project Management Department.
LNG Demand Situation and Trade Issues
NS4054 “Japan, Southeast Asia, and Australia” Mikkal E. Herberg.
Liquefied Natural Gas: Global Overview
Energy Demand Outlook by Mohamed Ariff Based on Data from The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan.
Impact of New Waves of LNG in the Asia Pacific Gas Market: Future of LNG Market in Asia Jinseok Sung Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas Department.
Russian Gas Project up to period 2030: Myth or Reality? Dr. Alexey Gromov Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy Moscow, Russia World Independent.
Substantiative data on the Russian Energy Strategy 2030: expert views on the potential export of energy resources Vladimir Feygin, Vitaly Protasov Institute.
© OECD/IEA 2012 The future of gas in Europe – if it has any Laszlo Varro Head, Gas Coal and Power Markets.
International – Independent - Innovative Gas Overview AUGUST
April, 2007 Energy Situation and Prospects of Korea.
1Korea National Oil Corporation. Bilateral Cooperation Between Russia & Korea for Oil/Gas E&P and Role of KNOC Korea National Oil Corporation.
Transformations of the European gas market and Russian gas export strategy Moscow May 30, 2016 Anna Galkina The Energy Research Institute of the Russian.
Competitors for East Siberian oil and gas in Asia James Henderson MARCH 2016 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
Opportunities and Challenges Abraham Kim, Ph.D. Maureen & Mike Mansfield Center University of Montana Growing Energy Supply & Demand.
Gazprom on Hybrid Markets of Europe “Energy: Perspectives and Challenges” Regional Conference Novi Sad, March 11, 2016 Sergei Komlev Head of Contract Structuring.
OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES Natural Gas Research Programme Russian gas in Europe: how competitive and how secure? James Henderson JUNE 2016 OXFORD.
ГММ -1( а ) Li Jianfei. By 2040, the world and, in particular, countries which have large and technologically advanced economies – such as the USA,
Better Energy, Better World Cooperation in Natural Gas Industry between Russia and Korea Sept Better Energy, Better World.
NS4960 Spring Term 2017 Australia: Energy Policy
Energy Arbitration: The View from Korea & NE Asia
Impacts of New Gulf Geopolitics on Natural Gas Exports to Asia
Energy Arbitration: The View from Korea & NE Asia
Figure 1 Annual LNG import values in Japan and South Korea/Japan Trade Balance (Japan Ministry of Finance) From: The impact of US LNG exports and the prospects.
36th USAEE/IAEE: NORTH AMERICAN CONFERENCEE Washington DC, United States September Removing destination clauses: The implications on long-term.
NS4960 Spring Term 2018 Australia: Energy Policy
Asian Regionalism? ASEAN Northeast Asia.
Chemical Industry in Europe – Trends
The best marketing instrument for Natural Gas is a happy Customer
Presentation transcript:

Dr. Younkyoo Kim The Korean Peninsula and International Relations in Northeast Asia Hanyang University, Seoul Nov. 30, 2012 Dr. Younkyoo Kim The Korean Peninsula and International Relations in Northeast Asia Hanyang University, Seoul Nov. 30, 2012

1.Global LNG Supply and Demand Structure – 8% Increase in LNG Trade (2011): Total Turnover of MT –Largest Exporter → Qatar 75.5 MT ( 31% of total supply) Malaysia + Indonesia+ Australia = 27 % of total supply –Largest Importer → Japan + S. Korea ( 48% of total demand) Global Natural Gas Structure

2.LNG Spot Market  LNG is traditionally traded through Long-term deal contracts  Spot Market Share 11.7 % 19.0 % → 25% (62 MT) Global Natural Gas Structure

LNG Pricing Mechanism Global Natural Gas Structure

1. Hub Pricing and Oil Index Pricing Difference  : 3% decrease in global natural gas demand  Late 2009 – Early 2010: recovery in gas demand (Cold winter)  From early 2009, a gap between Oil Index Pricing and Hub Pricing appeared. Oil Index Pricing > Hub x 2  Appeared after the end of 2010 ◆ Hub Pricing for 2011: NBP : $9 mmBtu Henry Hub : Continue to drop Oil Index Pricing: Continue to rise “the logic of linking gas prices to those of (mainly) oil products had largely disappeared in the major European gas markets. A transition away from formal contractual oil product price linkage is inevitable and arguably has already begun with a great degree of spot gas pricing indexation in some long term contracts” Jonathan Stern of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies “the logic of linking gas prices to those of (mainly) oil products had largely disappeared in the major European gas markets. A transition away from formal contractual oil product price linkage is inevitable and arguably has already begun with a great degree of spot gas pricing indexation in some long term contracts” Jonathan Stern of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Natural Gas Conditions and Implications After the Financial Crisis and Fukushima

Natural Gas Conditions and Implications After the Financial Crisis and Fukushima

Natural Gas Conditions and Implications After the Financial Crisis and Fukushima

Natural Gas Conditions and Implications After the Financial Crisis and Fukushima

Natural Gas Conditions and Implications After the Financial Crisis and Fukushima

2. Decrease in Russian Export to Europe  European importers complain Russian Oil Index Pricing  Larger gap between spot pricing and Russian oil index pricing * $244.44/Mcm ( ) → $452.16/Mcm (2012.7)  Late 2011-’early 12: Focus on renegotiation of gas price between Gazprom and main European importers  European importers increased import from ME, Africa LNG import rather than Russian PNG LNG share 20.4% (‘09) → 23.6% (’11)  Gazprom provides 15% of recent European supply on spot price  *Russian Northeast(NE) Asia gas export 11.8 bcm ('11) → 44.2 bcm ('20) Natural Gas Conditions and Implications After the Financial Crisis and Fukushima

Natural Gas Conditions and Implications After the Financial Crisis and Fukushima

Russian Energy Strategy 2030 ( ) Diversification of exports to Asia: Oil 6% → 25% Natural Gas 0 → 20% –Supplied oil to China through ESPO (0.3 million bpd) Dec, 2010 –Supplied gas to Japan through Sakhalin-II LNG. April, 2009 Delay in Siberia PNG supply to China due to pricing problems. Reliance of Russian oil of 3 NE Asian nations (2011) –Japan: 4% –China: 8% –S. Korea: 6% Reliance of Russian LNG of 3 NE Asian nations (2011) –Japan: 9% (4% '09) –China: 0.5 bcm out of 17 bcm –S. Korea: 9% (4% '09) 1. Increased Export to Asia Russian Energy Strategy towards Northeast Asia

Russia, Share of Various Regions in Natural Gas and LNG Exports, %, 2011 China’s liquefied natural gas imports by country, 2010 Russian Energy Strategy towards Northeast Asia

2. ESPO ESPO Import Countries Status (2011) U.S.A.27% (Largest ESPO Importer) Japan19% China18% S. Korea13% Philippines9% Thailand7% Singapore4% Peru1% Indonesia1% India1% Russian Energy Strategy towards Northeast Asia

 Gazprom’s Chayanda and Kovykta (Irkutsk) Gas field Oct limited research being conducted through experiment production on the possibility of increasing well flow and reserves. Production to launch Plans to liquefy Vladivostok LNG plant (Production capability of 10 million tons)  Sakhalin-III Project’s South Kirinskoye gas field  2011 second probe boring: Increase in reserve(3P) from 304Bcm to 564Bcm. 3. Kovykta, Chayanda, Sakhalin-III Gas field Russian Energy Strategy towards Northeast Asia

 Increase in U.S. shale gas production, uncertainty in European gas demand and price ⇒ Gazprom is trying to increase the LNG Asian market share  Shtokman LNG Project  $40 billion project with yearly LNG production of 7.5 million tons  Vladivostok LNG Project  10 million ton per year LNG project co-initiated with Japan  Chayanda gas field is located 3,000km away in East-Siberia: Need to figure out the logistics  Sakhalin-2 Third LNG Facility Construction  Second LNG facility with yearly production of 4.8 million ton constructed  Advantage: cheap construction cost ($0.5billion~$0.7billion)  But, need to be supplied with gas from Sakhalin-1 or 3 project. 4. Gazprom’s Asia LNG Project Russian Energy Strategy towards Northeast Asia

 ESPO price negotiation and increase in supply  Russia’s Rosneft, Transneft signed 20 year contract with Chinese CNPC (2009)  Provides daily supply of 0.3 million barrels to China  Recently Russia-China agreed on ESPO supply price.  Controversy in Russia on Chinese oil export  Pro: Once fair and competitive price is agreed, increase exports to China will benefit Russia.  Con: For diversification of markets, Russia should not increase exports to China 1.China-Russia Energy Cooperation China, Japan, Korea, and the U.S.

Negotiation on Gas Price  Russia and China signs a gas deal in 2006  But still cannot sign the final contract due to difference in gas price.  Plans to newly construct Northern line(Altai gas pipeline, 30Bcm/y) and Eastern line(38Bcm/y)  Gazprom is currently selling LNG to China on spot price.  Negotiating to construct the third LNG facility within Sakhalin-2 project and Vladivostok LNG Plant.  6 LNG cargos sold to China in 2010  9 LNG cargos sold in China-Russia Energy Cooperation China, Japan, Korea, and the U.S.

 Russia-Japan concluded Vladivostok LNG Plant contract  Japan was the only outcome throughout Vladivostok APEC conference.  Japan-Russia military cooperation realized.  June : the Russian Energy Ministry and the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry signed the Memorandum of Understanding 2. Japan-Russia Energy Cooperation 사진출처 : China, Japan, Korea, and the U.S.

 Korea needs to establish short-mid term energy security plans where the followings are present: North American shale gas revolution Japan’s Fukushima crisis Delay in China-Russia gas contract Russia’s rapid development of far-east  When China-Russian energy cooperation and Japan-Russian energy cooperation is in friction: fits the Korean interest the most.  Japan-Russian energy cooperation back in harmony.  When China-Russian energy cooperation is in harmony, China becomes the transit nation of Russian energy. This makes Korea to be dependent on China for energy. Source: YP News 3.Korea-Russia Energy Cooperation China, Japan, Korea, and the U.S.

 Meeting of Russian President and Korean President on September 8 th was thought to mark as an accelerator to South-North-Russian pipeline initiative.  However, the two Presidents did not give out any significant outcome.  Currently, MOU that states 7.5 million tons will be imported from Russia from 2015 exists only.  The clause that gas price is cheaper means that import through pipeline is 1/3 cheaper logistically compared to LNG. This does not necessarily mean gas import is cheaper accordingly.  Korean Government stance: “Principle of importing gas securely and cheaply” 사진출처 : 연합뉴스 3.Korea-Russia Energy Cooperation China, Japan, Korea, and the U.S.