DP COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO José Armando Campos CST 2 nd International Meeting on Ironmaking 1 st International Symposium on Iron Ore Vitória/ES - Brazil – September 13 th, 2004 ASSOCIAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE METALURGIA E MATERIAIS - ABM
DP Source: Average Market Expectations – BACEN, as of July 30, 2004 GDP - PROJECTIONS Sector Industrial Agricultural Services Total %
DP Source: Market Average Expectations – BACEN, as of July 30, 2004 The variation of 4.2% in the 1H04/1H03, shows that it is possible to have, in 2004, an economic growth greater than the projected number. The dynamic recently generated in the industry will make the 2005 growth larger than the projected number due to a greater carry-over % GDP - PROJECTIONS
DP Source: IBGE, Anfavea, others Greatest 1st semester growth since Growth in all sectors. In terms of demand the biggest growth were in exports, which had a 17.8% increase. The indirect steel exports increased 33.5% (1H04/1H03). Automobile production in the 1 st semester went up by 15% compared to the same period in ECONOMY – 1st Semester 2004 Agriculture % Industry % Services % GDP + 4.2% SectorsSub-Sectors COMPARED TO THE 1ST SEMESTER 2003 Transformation + 7.3% % Construction % Mineral Extraction % Industrial Services Public Services
DP Source: IBGE, others It was the greatest GDP growth (5.7%) since the 3rd quarter of The Industrial Sector grew 6.6%. The Sub-sector Transformation Industry had the highest growth rate pushed by: ECONOMY – 2nd Quarter durable goods – highlight to automotive vehicles - capital goods – highlight to machines and equipment RESUMING OF INVESTIMENTS (growth of 11.7%) The Construction Sector grew 6.7%, after 5 successive quarters in decrease. COMPARED TO THE 2ND QUARTER 2003
DP Source: IBGE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (January 2003 = 100) (January 2003 = 100)
DP % CAPACITY UTILIZATION % CAPACITY UTILIZATION INDUSTRY - GENERAL 82,2 CNI
DP Fonte: Instituto Brasileiro de Siderurgia – IBS Index Number: 1990=100 Steel Consumption 4.7% per year 2.3% per year Elasticity - Income 2.1 GDP STEEL CONSUMPTION x GDP
DP EVOLUTION OF THE PARTICIPATION OF THE MAIN FINAL CONSUMER SECTORS EVOLUTION OF THE PARTICIPATION OF THE MAIN FINAL CONSUMER SECTORS APPARENT CONSUMPTION Source: IBS Construction Industry Automotive Industry Capital Goods, Machines and Equipment (incl. Agricultural) Household and Commercial Appliances %
DP DOMESTIC SALES Source: IBS January ~ June total domestic sales when comparing 04/03 shows an increase of 11% (flat and long).
DP EXPORTS Source: IBS Exports reached 7.5 mt between January and July 2004; 4.5% greater than the same period in Between January and July/2004 semi-finished products represented 52% of our exports, flat products 28%, long products 15% and others 5% Jan ~ July Asia 45.5% North Am. 21.6% Latin Am. 19.0% Europe 10.4% * 3.5% Asia 36.1% North Am. 25.6% Latin Am. 23.4% Europe 10.7% * 4.2% (*) Middle East, Africa, Oceania
DP Steel exports currently represent 42% of total production of finished and semi-finished products. About 55% of the exports correspond to semi-finished products. Finished products exports surpass the level of 5.5 million tons/year for nearly all types of products. EXPORTS
DP DOMESTIC STEEL DEMAND - FORECAST GDP projection scenarios applied to the equation resulting from the regression analysis give the following demands for steel products: mt Source: IBS Flat Products Long Products Total PROJECTION
DP ’ tones Capacity Consumption 36,1 34,7 34,1 32,9 28,9 29,9 28,3 22,3 6,0 25,0 26,2 25,1 20,5 5,4 26,7 19,1 18,5 15,6 17,0 13,3 12,0 5,5 Projection Production 17,7 20,6 22,2 24,0 26,0 38,7 39,8 43,9 31,1 Note: Does not include the new plants in the Northeast planned for export. CAPACITY x PRODUCTION x APPARENT CONSUMPTION The present investment program will allow the sector to meet growth demands as well as to keep exports. EVOLUTION AND PRODUCTION CRUDE STEEL 33,0
DP Investment projects in the sector show a commitment to the internal market by meeting the increase in demand US$ 7.4 bi shall be invested between 2004 and 2008 Installed capacity will increase from 34 to 44 million t/year Average annual forecast growth of the internal demand for steel between 1.2 and 1.4 million tons of products. Production capacity in the sector will remain above the internal demand for all types of products. INVESTMENTS
DP Own Resources 50.6% PROGRAMMED INVESTMENTS US$ 501 PROGRAM 2004/2008 INSTALLED COMPANIES Source: IBS Domestic Currency 24.6% Foreign Currency 24.8% SOURCE OF THE INVESTMENTS Total: US$ 7.4 billion
DP US$ billion Projection 2004 ~2008 – US$ 7.4 billion Source: IBS Flat Products Long Products Specials Steel Sectors INVESTMENTS Source: IBS Reduction 25.9% Rolling 12.6% Steelmaking 7.8% Other 18.0% Raw Materials Treatment and Energy 24.5% Casting 6.5% (*) Environment = 2,5% (**) Modernization/Automation/Research = 2,2% Applications * **
DP INVESTMENTS IN THE REDUCTION AREA EVOLUTION OF THE PROJECTED INSTALLED CAPACITY Blast Furnaces Sinter Plants Coke Plants SOL included mt Source: IBS
DP Private ControlState Control US$ million Investments in Brazilian Steel Industry Source: IBS INVESTMENTS Projection + US$ 7.4 bi US$ 13.0 bi
DP Prices Variation – R$/t (Base January 2002 = 100) jan/02 mar/02 may/02 jul/02 sept/02 nov/02 jan/03 mar/03 may/03 jul/03 sept/03 nov/03 jan/04 mar/04 may/04 Scrap Iron Ore IGP-M Pig Iron Electric Power jun/04 PRICES – RAW MATERIALS x INFLATION
DP COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO José Armando Campos CST 2 nd International Meeting on Ironmaking 1 st International Symposium on Iron Ore Vitória/ES - Brazil – September 13 th, 2004 ASSOCIAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE METALURGIA E MATERIAIS - ABM