Red Meat Prospects Conference ‘Progress Through Partnership’

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture AIDAN COTTER CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA 28 JANUARY 2009 Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture March 2013 Market Outlook for Beef & Sheep Sectors: - ROI Perspective Joe Burke

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture Beef Market Outlook Irish Cattle AvailabilityIrish Cattle Availability EU Beef ProductionEU Beef Production Price SituationPrice Situation Market DemandMarket Demand Live ExportsLive Exports

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture 1.14m. Dairy cows 1.15m. Suckler cows produced 2.16m. calves in 2012: Dairy-bred animals 0.75m. Suckler-bred cattle 1.03m. ROI National Cattle Herd 2012 Dairy-beef crosses 0.38m Source CSO June Source DAFM

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture 2012 Calf Registrations +3.7% / +77,000Live Exports -25% / -55,000

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture (F) Steers Y Bulls Heifers Cows Other Total1,5701,3961,500 – 1,530 Throughput Forecast – Export Meat Plants (000’ head) Most of this increase likely in second half of 2013

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture ROI weekly finished cattle supplies (head) 2013 Cattle Supplies to-date 9.7% vs. 2012

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture UK Throughput -6.3% Prime cattle -7.6% Cull cows -1.6% Calf births recover European Markets Cattle Supplies 2012 France Throughput -5.7% Y. Bulls -6.5% Cull cows -4.8% Live Exps: -3.1% Germany Throughput -1.5% Italy Throughput -4% Cattle imports -10% Males aged <12mo.s -8% Spain Throughput -1.5% Live imports -17% Live exports +54% EU Beef Production in % lower than 2011 (EU Commission)

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture EU-27 Beef Production Trend % -1.5% -2.1% +0.5% +8% +1% -2% N/C. Source: EU working beef forecasting group Further decline of 0.5% forecast for 2013

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture Producer Price Increase: ROI vs. Europe & UK Note: Price Increase in Euro terms

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture Producer Prices: Ireland vs. Europe & UK (w/e 09/03) Irish Price €4.08/kg, EU-15 Av. €3.95/kg; UK €4.37/kg In Italy, R-grade young bull price: €4.09/kg, Spain: €3.90, France: €3.94, Germany €4.14 Prices in Euro terms

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture Source: EU working beef forecasting group Slight further decline in consumption forecast -0.6% -1.2%

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture Ireland Beef Consumption 52 Weeks to 17 th February: Volume: -6.9% Av. Price: +8.0% to €8.85/kg Latest 4 weeks to 17 th Feb: Volume -7.3% Av. Price: +13.4% to €9.36/kg Source: Kantar

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture UK Beef Consumption 52 Weeks to 17 February Volume: - 2.8% Price: + 7.3% 4 Weeks to 17 February Volume: -1.1% Price: +3.0% Disappointing sales of roasting joints Knock-on effect of price increases Underlying decline in consumption Less price promotions Sales of burgers/grills down 35% in latest 4 week period

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture CalvesWeanlings/StoresFinished CattleTotal

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture (000’ head) % change Total NI GB Italy Spain Netherlands Belgium Greece Non-EU 18,270 6,953 1,802 3, ,304 1, ,976 6,084 1,243 3,290 4,102 6,392 3, , % -12.5% -31% -8% +310% +177% +156% N/C +650% Live Cattle Exports 2013 Distribution of Live Exports from Ireland up to w/e. 2 nd March

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture Beef Summary Recovery in national cattle herd:  Increase in cattle kill on last year’s low levels Continued decline in EU production:  4.8% fall in 2012; even tighter supplies this yr Market opportunities in France, Germany, Italy and Netherlands Price performance: UK & Irish producer prices have risen most Beef consumption impacted by higher prices, especially in the more ‘difficult’ economies: ROI, Italy, Spain, Portugal Some recovery in live exports, especially calves

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture AIDAN COTTER CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA 28 JANUARY 2009 Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture SHEEP SECTOR

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture TOTAL 2,171,242 TOTAL 2,431,283 ROI Sheep Meat Production 2011 v’s k + 160k + 32K +12% Increase | + 260k head | + 5,300 tonnes to 53,300t Wk ending 30 Dec Source: DAFM

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture Number of Sheep (Millions) ROI Sheep Population Outlook % growth 5.15 Source’: CSO June National Livestock Survey

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture TOTAL 335,259 TOTAL 447,201 ROI Sheep Throughput Year to-date 2011, ‘12, ‘ k TOTAL 300, % Increase | + 112k head | 19.9kg Av Carcass Wt | +2,229 tonnes

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture c ROI Sheep Prices Period:

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture Home Market – Consumption still growing Latest Kantar Retail Data (52 week period ending 17 Feb ‘13) Total Volume 9,760t (+ 4.9)% Total Value €103m (+ 4.3%)

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture Promoting Lamb with the Quality Mark PR activity TV Advertising (8wks) & Local Radio Instore Activity 2013 Spring & Summer Lamb Promotion New Season Lamb Radio Advert

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture FRANCE 18,995t UK 11,318t BELGIUM 2,129t (+35%) GERMANY 2,508t (+29%) SWEDEN 2,424t (+17%) Export Market Performance Period: January – December 2012 Hong Kong 680t Source’: Bord Bia estimates based on CSO/GTIS (+4%) (+6%)(+350%) Export Market Volumes up 12% Value up 7% Netherlands 1,365t (+76%)

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture Irish Sheep Meat Exports*... Continued shift from carcass to boneless trade * Exports to FR, UK, BE, S, DE

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture Markets Carry over of hoggets | Production +8% | 55% exports FR | Sterling Production - 8% | poor domestic demand | targeting France Production + 3-5% | Shipping costs | Weather | Market Priorities? Breeding flock -5% | Lacaune lambs Spring ’13 | Import requirement +

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture AIDAN COTTER CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA 28 JANUARY 2009 Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture March 2013 Market Outlook for Beef & Sheep Sectors: - ROI Perspective Joe Burke

Red Meat Prospects Conference ‘Progress Through Partnership’