The Seasonal Forecast of the Precipitation in China in the Summer of 2013 国际气候与环境科学中心 International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Peng Jingbei.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Dongqian Wang Bing Zhou Chenghu Sun The features of EAWM 2012/13 and possible influencing factors Beijing Climate Center

Advertisements

Review of Northern Winter 2010/11

Li ZHANG, Hong LIAO, and Jianping LI Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Impacts of Asian Summer Monsoon on Seasonal and Interannual.

Objects Basic Research (Hypotheses and Understanding) Applied Research (Applications and Tools) Joint effects of ENSO and SST anomalies in different ocean.

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, July 2014 Initial Conditions Issued 14 July 2014 Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.

Interdecadal Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon and Precipitation By Huijun Wang Institute of Atmospheric Physics

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 August 2008.

Seasonal outlook of the East Asian Summer in 2015 Motoaki Takekawa Tokyo Climate Center Japan Meteorological Agency May th FOCRAII 1.

Caio A. S. Coelho Supervisors: D. B. Stephenson, F. J. Doblas-Reyes (*) Thanks to CAG, S. Pezzulli and M. Balmaseda.

Climate prediction Ding Yihui, Liu Yanju, Liu Yiming, Shi Xueli National Climate Center, CMA.

Multi-Scale Forcing and Formation of Desert and Monsoon PAGES 2 nd Global Monsoon Symposium, Shanghai, Sep , 2010 Guoxiong Wu Yimin LIU, Anmin Duan,

Intensification of Summer Rainfall Variability in the Southeastern United States in Recent Decades Hui Wang 1,2, Wenhong Li 1, and Rong Fu 1,3 1 Georgia.

THE CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU REGIONAL CLIMATE DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR JFM 2011 HUI-LING WU and CHIH-HUI SHIAO.

1. Global monsoon features Australian monsoon South American monsoon North American monsoon African monsoon Asian monsoon 2. Northern China winter drought.

Drivers of multidecadal variability in JJA ozone concentrations in the eastern United States Lu Shen, Loretta J. Mickley School of Engineering and Applied.

Challenges in Prediction of Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Inadequacy of the Tier-2 Strategy Bin Wang Department of Meteorology and International Pacific Research.

Recent SST, Sea ice, and Snow Cover Monitoring and Diagnosis Beijing Climate Center, CMA YUAN Yuan, ZHOU Bing （ Thanks to Dr. Guo Y J and Dr. Ma L J ）

Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 May 2011 For Real-time information:

Air-sea interaction over the Indian Ocean after El Nino in JMA/MRI-CGCM seasonal forecast experiment Tamaki Yasuda Meteorological.

Regional Climate Simulations of summer precipitation over the United States and Mexico Kingtse Mo, Jae Schemm, Wayne Higgins, and H. K. Kim.

Improved ensemble-mean forecast skills of ENSO events by a zero-mean stochastic model-error model of an intermediate coupled model Jiang Zhu and Fei Zheng.

Ding Yihui, Si Dong,Sun Ying, Wang Zunya,Liu Yunyun China meteorological Administration, National Climate Center April 8,2013 Long-term variation of heat.

A method of analogue-based correction of errors in model prediction and its application to 2013 summer climate prediction REN Hongli, LIU Ying, ZHENG Zhihai.

3. Products of the EPS for three-month outlook 1) Outline of the EPS 2) Examples of products 3) Performance of the system.

Seasonal Variation and Test of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau Heating and Its Profile Zhong Shanshan, He Jinhai Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters of.

Physical Processes of the Influence of 11-year Solar Cycle on the East Asian Winter Climate Wen Chen, and Qun Zhou Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS,

Toward Seasonal Climate Forecasting and Climate Projections in Future Akio KITOH Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan FOCRAII, 6-8 April 2010,

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 31 August 2009.

Zonal Flow Variability Linking the ENSO/Monsoon Systems Step back to the atmospheric response to El Niño –attempt to interpret the zonal flow variability.

Seasonal Climate Outlook for Summer 2013 Ke Zongjian, Wang Yongguang Beijing Climate Center

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 February 2015 For more information,

PAPER REVIEW R Kirsten Feng. Impact of global warming on the East Asian winter monsoon revealed by nine coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs Masatake.

Modes of variability and teleconnections: Part II Hai Lin Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada Advanced School and Workshop on S2S ICTP,

The NTU-GCM'S AMIP Simulation of the Precipitation over Taiwan Area Wen-Shung Kau 1, Yu-Jen Sue 1 and Chih-Hua Tsou 2 1 Department of Atmospheric Sciences.

Future Projections of Precipitation Characteristics in Asia.

One-year re-forecast ensembles with CCSM3.0 using initial states for 1 January and 1 July in Model: CCSM3 is a coupled climate model with state-of-the-art.

SASCOF 2010 Météo-France GCM forecasts JP. Céron – Météo-France

Using the National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) System Johnna Infanti Advisor: Ben Kirtman.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP October 11,

Winter Outlook for the Pacific Northwest: Winter 06/07 14 November 2006 Kirby Cook. NOAA/National Weather Service Acknowledgement: Climate Prediction Center.

Analysis and modelling of the 2010 Pakistan heavy precipitation events Milind Mujumdar Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR), Indian Institute of Tropical.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 26,

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 12, 2010.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 13,

1 LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences Detection and Attribution of East Asian Climate Change Tianjun ZHOU

The role of Atlantic ocean on the decadal- multidecadal variability of Asian summer monsoon Observational and paleoclimate evidences Observational and.

2003 Atlantic Hurricane Season Summary By Gerald Bell, Muthuvel Chelliah Climate Prediction Center NOAA/ NWS And NOAA Atlantic Hurricane forecast team.

Marcel Rodney McGill University Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences Supervisors: Dr. Hai Lin, Prof. Jacques Derome, Prof. Seok-Woo Son.

1/39 Seasonal Prediction of Asian Monsoon: Predictability Issues and Limitations Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 6 October 2008.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 16 February 2015 For more information,

International Workshop on Monthly-to-Seasonal Climate Prediction National Taiwan Normal Univ., October 2003 Evaluation of the APCN Multi-Model Ensemble.

Equatorial Atlantic Variability: Dynamics, ENSO Impact, and Implications for Model Development M. Latif 1, N. S. Keenlyside 2, and H. Ding 1 1 Leibniz.

Summer Monsoon – Global Ocean Interactions Ben Kirtman George Mason University Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies Acknowledgements: Randy Wu and.

Seasonal Climate Outlook of China in Summer 2017

5th International Conference on Earth Science & Climate Change

Seasonal Climate Outlook for Summer 2013 over DPRK

Seasonal outlook for summer 2017 over Japan

Oliver Elison Timm ATM 306 Fall 2016

University Allied Workshop (1-3 July, 2008)

CNU-KOPRI-KMA activities for winter climate prediction

GPC CPTEC: Seasonal forecast activities update

Seasonal-to-interannual climate prediction using a fully coupled OAGCM

BCC prediction of East-Asian key circulation patterns in 2017 summer

2013 Macau Rainy Season Forecast

University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System

T. Ose, T. Yasuda (MRI/JMA), Y. Takaya, S. Maeda, C. Kobayashi

JSPS 5th University Allied Workshop on Climate and Environmental Studies for Global Sustainability Decadal change in the relationship between East Asian-western.

Introduction to the operational climate prediction for Asia in BCC

XiaoJing Jia Influence of Forced Large-Scale Atmospheric Patterns on winter climate in China XiaoJing Jia

Presentation transcript:

The Seasonal Forecast of the Precipitation in China in the Summer of 2013 国际气候与环境科学中心 International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Peng Jingbei The Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP), CAS

EASM System

IAP’s Climate Forecast ENSO forecast systems ENSO forecast systems CGCM Ensemble system AGCMs 2L 9L CGCM CCSM4.0 Statistical Methods ENSOSNOW Atmospheric Signal EASM Subtropical High precipitation Seasonal Forecast

IAP’s Forecast of ENSO IAP’s CGCM-Nino3 IAP’s Large-Size Ensemble ENSO Forecast System with Coupled Data Assimilation-Nino3.4 The ENSO-neutral will continue through the next several months.

IAP-2L-AGCM IAP-9L-AGCM CCSM4 Forecast of the Subtropical High Red- model’s long-term mean Green -prediction Blue-model’s long-term mean Red- prediction Blue-model’s long-term mean Red- prediction The subtropical high will be stronger than usual in summer of 2013

Forecast of EASM Snow Cover over the Tibetan Plateau (Provided by BCC/CMA) More Snow →Colder TP surface in spring and summer → Weaker temperature contrast → Weaker EASM Less snow Stronger EASM

Forecast of EASM The EASM Forecast Index U’ 200 in Feb U’ 200 → the Jet shifted northward → less precipitation in the South Asia → land-sea contrast ↑ →stronger EASM (Zhang et al., 2003 ） The Drought monitor in Feb 2013 （ BCC/CMA ） Positive Correlation with EASM Index Stronger EASM

Precipitation Prediction （ Numerical Models ） 2L-AGCM9L-AGCM CCSM4

Composed Summer Rainfall Anomaly Percentage during the Decaying Phase of LN

Seasonal Forecast

Thank You

H500 Anomalies 2L 9L CCSM4

UV’850 2L9L CCSM4

CCSM4 Prediction Skills (Correlation Coefficients with NCEP Reanalysis Data)

East Asia Winter Monsoon (EAWM) +SSTAs in South China Sea(SCS) Frontier Stronger EAWM→-SSTAs in SCS in Winter→-SSTAs in Summer→Land-Sea Contrast↑→EASM Stronger （ Ji et al. ， 1997 ） SSTAs in DJF Index of EAWM Positive-Weaker SSTAs in JJA

Experiment of Ensemble Prediction of EASM Index of 2013 L2L9EAWMU’200 (FEB) Ensemble Prediction Contradictions in Prediction of EASM of 2013 Correlations with Observation EASM Index during L2L9CCSM4.0EAWMU’200 (FEB) WeakerStronger PredictorsPredictionExamination (Correlation) L2+L9+ EAWM+U’200 (FEB) EAWM+U’200 (FEB)

东亚地区的 2013 年夏季降水异常 mm/ day 预测意见： 2013 年我国夏季气候环流：夏季风正常，副高偏西偏北；降水：我国南方降水偏少，北方降水偏多；

A global atmospheric general circulation model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). (Zeng, 1987; Zhang, 1990; Liang, 1996; Bi, 1993) Horizontal Resolution: 4 o ×5 o ; Vertical Resolution: 9 levels, with a top at 10hPa. IAP9L-AGCM

Lower boundary conditions: Over the tropical Pacific region, the SSTA used in IAP9L-AGCM is the linear combination of observed SSTA in initial month and SSTA forecasted by IAP ENSO prediction system ： The initial atmospheric data and observed SSTA are from NCEP. The ensemble consists of seven integrations starting form last seven consecutive days in or Oct. (SSTA) t =  (t) [(SSTA) to ] Obs + [1-  (t)][ (SSTA) Fcst ] t Here,  (t) varies from 1.0 to 0.0 during the integration time Over other regions, SSTA is kept as the observed SSTA in initial month.

The Large-size Ensemble ENSO Forecast System with Coupled Data Assimilation Zheng, Zhu, et. al. GRL, 2006