Economic Outlook November 2010. Recession Impact Fewer Moving Delay in Marriage One Car Office at Home More Education.

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Presentation transcript:

Economic Outlook November 2010

Recession Impact Fewer Moving Delay in Marriage One Car Office at Home More Education

Why is the U.S. economic growth so lackluster?

Sources of Economic Growth

Inventory Buildup

Employment Changes During Recession-Recoveries

Percent of Long-term Unemployed

Employment Weaker than Income

Federal Tax Withheld Employment Based

Household Debt Is Still High

Housing

History of Home Prices

Housing Affordability Index

Home Prices

Mortgage Rate

Double-dip in Housing?

Seriously Delinquent Mortgages

Distress Distressed Home Sales

Homeowner Vacancy Rate

Inventory of Existing Homes for Resale

State & Local Governments

S&L Budget Gaps

State and Local Government Payroll

State and Local Government Drag

Fiscal Stimulus No Ammunition

Budget Deficits % of GDP

Tax Increase? Current2011 Top Income Tax Rate35%41% Capital Gains Rate1520 Top Dividend Rate Estate Tax055

Tax-cut Extension on Economic Growth

Quantitative Easing

Employment Changes During Recession-Recoveries

OOOOOOoooutp Output Gap

Low Inflation 1960s to 2000 Price Stability Prosperity

Unemployment Rate and NAIRU

Quantitative Easing Language L.T.Interest Rate Buy Bonds

Why QE? Short Rate Zero Lower Bond Yields Weaker Dollar

Money to Emerg. Mkts Stocks and Bonds

Currency War?

Why May Not Work? Problem: Tax & Reg. Currency War Protectionism

Taylor’s Rule Actual Federal Funds Rate

U.S. Economic Growth (% Change Year over Year) Forecast Zero

Blue Chip Economic Forecasts

Double-dip Yes/No ?

No Double-dip? Tax Cuts QE2 Low Base

InflationorDeflation

Major Inflation and Deflation

Tip Yields Real Inflation

NegatNegativive Negative TIP Yields

DDDD Deflation Around the Corner?

Lower Inflation Expectations

Why No Deflation Inflation Expectations Wage Rigidities Import Prices Monetary Policy

No Deflation Inflation Eventually Cost Push Excess Cap. Diminishes TaxesFees

Election

Assessments of Government Economic Policy University of Michigan

90 Days after Mid-term ( ) 8.5 percent

Mid-term Elections and S&P 500

Stocks and Election Cycle ( ) FirstSecondThirdFourth 3.0%-2.7%10.1%7.5%

Who Controls? Unified GovernmentDivided Government 6.10% 11.10%

Key Issues Tax & Budget EnergyTrade China Currency Financial Reform Housing Finance Health care Immigration

Compromise or Not?

Video Clip

Best Combination Dem. White House Rep. Congress

Gridlock Is Good for Budgets

GlobalEconomy

Economic Growth

Rebalancing Global Trade

Internal Rebalancing Domestic Demand Budgets Finance/Credit

External Rebalancing Deficit Countries Increase Exports Surplus Countries Increase Consumption

Government Debt % of GDP

Debt to GDP Over 90%: 1.7% Vs. Below 30%: 3.5%

Over 100% Stunt Growth

Sovereign Borrowing Needs

Outlook Bought Time Vs. Deficits Remain

Asia:V-Shaped Trade Rebound Inventory Building Capital Inflows Strong Domestic Demand Weak Financial Sys.

China’s Economy

Private Credit Growth

Housing Starts in China

Soft Landing in China?

China’s Economic Growth (% Change Year over Year) Forecast

Chinese Chinese Currency Undervalued

Weaker Dollar

VenturaCounty

VC Employment

VC Unemployment Rate

VC Education and Health Jobs

VC Other Service Jobs

VC Retail Trade jobs

Information Jobs

VC Financial Jobs

VC Leisure-Hospitality Jobs

Demographics

LostDecade?

DrSohn.com (not Dr.Sohn.com)

TIPS and 10-yr Treasury Yield Curves

Initial Jobless Claims

House Prices and Vacancy Rate

Inventory-to-Sales Ratio

Housing Drag on Economic Growth