The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 The Economic Outlook: Will the Headwinds or Tailwinds Prevail?

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The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 The Economic Outlook: Will the Headwinds or Tailwinds Prevail? Lynn Reaser, Ph.D. Houston, March 25, 2010

Key Topics  Global Outlook  U.S. Economy  Financial Markets  Texas/Houston The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010

Global Outlook

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Global Manufacturing Rebounds Index, 50 plus = expansion

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 World Trade Dives, Recovers Real Volumes, annual percent change

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 China’s Motor Remains On Real GDP, annual percent change

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Nations’ Growth Rates to Diverge Percent change in 2010 real GDP, forecast

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Crosscurrents Keep Dollar Stable in 2010 Broad Trade-Weighted Index, Jan 97=100, December average Forecast

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 U.S. Economy

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 U.S. Real GDP to Rebound 4 th quarter, percent change over prior year

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Consumers Save More, but Trauma Contained Saving rate, percent Forecast

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Recov e ry Weaker than Normal Real GDP, percent change

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Output to Recoup Losses in 2010 GDP, billions of chained 2005 dollars

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Job Growth to Slowly Resume Change in nonfarm employment, thousands

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Jobless Rate to Edge Lower by Year-end 2010 Quarterly average, percent

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Consumer Prices Still Subdued 4 th quarter, percent change over prior year

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Financial Markets

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Fed’s Balance Sheet Explodes Billions of dollar, month-end

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Interest Rates to Slowly Rise Quarter-end, percent

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Profits to Bounce Higher After-tax profits, annual percent change

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Potential Potholes

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Debt Shifts to the Public Sector Q3 2009, Percent change from prior quarter, annualized

Federal Deficit Continues to Deepen Deficit as percent of GDP, fiscal years The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010

Risks Terrorism Commerci al Real Estate Oil Prices China Sovereign Risk 10-15% 15-20%

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Texas Tracks U.S. Job Performance Percent change over prior year

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Houston and U.S. Job Trends Converge Percent change over prior year

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Oil Prices Forecast to Stay at Higher Levels Dollars per barrel, quarterly average, WTI ActualForecast

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Most Houston Sectors Suffer Job Losses January, percent change over prior year

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Houston Home Prices* to Rise Moderately 4 th quarter, percent change over prior year *FHFA Index

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Positives  Oil drilling  Exports  Health care  Homebuilding Negatives  Commercial real estate  Oil refining margins  Tight credit Houston

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Houston to See More Jobs December average, change over prior year, thousands

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Recap  Global Economy Uneven  U.S. Recovers  Higher Interest Rates and Stock Prices  Houston Outperforms Nation  Global Economy Uneven  U.S. Recovers  Higher Interest Rates and Stock Prices  Houston Outperforms Nation

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Real Change Emerging Markets Take the LeadGovernment Debt EscalatesLess Trust in Markets

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Change, but How Permanent? Consumer Thrift Green Economy

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Real Change Complex Tax SystemRisk TakingSmall Business

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010