United Nations Statistics Division ISIC and CPC implementation

2 Expert Group Expert Group discussed a proposal for the implementation of ISIC and CPC at its meeting in April 2007Expert Group discussed a proposal for the implementation of ISIC and CPC at its meeting in April 2007 Main recommendations relate to:Main recommendations relate to: TimetableTimetable Documentation and toolsDocumentation and tools Regional workshopsRegional workshops Technical cooperationTechnical cooperation

3 Timetable EG recommended two milestones:EG recommended two milestones: Countries should adapt their national classification to ISIC Rev.4 by 2009Countries should adapt their national classification to ISIC Rev.4 by 2009 To meet population census target of 2010To meet population census target of 2010 International data reporting in ISIC Rev.4 format should begin in 2012International data reporting in ISIC Rev.4 format should begin in 2012 Some countries recommended earlier goals, but that may be unrealistic for majority of countriesSome countries recommended earlier goals, but that may be unrealistic for majority of countries

4 Timetable No specific dates have been recommended for completion of:No specific dates have been recommended for completion of: Adaptation of business registerAdaptation of business register Sample designs and weights for surveysSample designs and weights for surveys BackcastingBackcasting Reasons:Reasons: The timing and organization of surveys varies by countryThe timing and organization of surveys varies by country Scope (length) of backcasting differs by countryScope (length) of backcasting differs by country

5 Documentation and tools UNSD will develop:UNSD will develop: A Companion Guide to ISIC and CPC that helps to understand:A Companion Guide to ISIC and CPC that helps to understand: the concepts and structure of the classificationsthe concepts and structure of the classifications Application of the classificationApplication of the classification Correspondence tablesCorrespondence tables ISIC and CPC indexesISIC and CPC indexes UNSD will also set up an open discussion forum and expand the classifications website into a larger knowledge platformUNSD will also set up an open discussion forum and expand the classifications website into a larger knowledge platform

6 Documentation and tools UNSD will develop documents, based on European and other experiences, for:UNSD will develop documents, based on European and other experiences, for: Establishing a national classificationEstablishing a national classification Recoding of business registersRecoding of business registers Sampling design and weight estimationSampling design and weight estimation BackcastingBackcasting

7 Regional workshops Regional workshops have been supported in two phases:Regional workshops have been supported in two phases: Workshops on final versions of ISIC and CPC in 2007/8Workshops on final versions of ISIC and CPC in 2007/8 Workshops on specific elements of implementation*, such as:Workshops on specific elements of implementation*, such as: Adaptation of business registersAdaptation of business registers Statistical collection programmesStatistical collection programmes Use of the classification for administrative dataUse of the classification for administrative data * (carried out most likely in connection with industry workshops)

8 Technical cooperation EG supported regional partnership for technical cooperationEG supported regional partnership for technical cooperation Proposal:Proposal: US, Canada, selected S.American countries support ECLACUS, Canada, selected S.American countries support ECLAC EU members support ECA, ECE, ESCWA (where relationships already exist)EU members support ECA, ECE, ESCWA (where relationships already exist) Australia, Japan, India support ESCAPAustralia, Japan, India support ESCAP UNSD will serve specific subregionsUNSD will serve specific subregions First steps of cooperation will be organized through the open discussion forumFirst steps of cooperation will be organized through the open discussion forum

9 Implementation process

10 Implementation of ISIC Rev.4 Major tasks and challenges:Major tasks and challenges: Defining a new classification and associated toolsDefining a new classification and associated tools Reclassification of all units on the business register according to the revised classificationReclassification of all units on the business register according to the revised classification Maintaining two classifications for an interim periodMaintaining two classifications for an interim period Sampling and weighting under the new classificationSampling and weighting under the new classification Simultaneous estimation and results assessment under both new and old classificationSimultaneous estimation and results assessment under both new and old classification Construction of industry weights for short term statisticsConstruction of industry weights for short term statistics Construction of back series in terms of the revised classificationConstruction of back series in terms of the revised classification Handling of the national accounts move to the revised classificationHandling of the national accounts move to the revised classification

11 Overall implementation process NSIC setup processNSIC setup process creation of a new national version of national classification (NSIC) according to ISIC Rev.4 for national usecreation of a new national version of national classification (NSIC) according to ISIC Rev.4 for national use Register update processRegister update process switchover in the Business Register to new NSICswitchover in the Business Register to new NSIC Statistics update processStatistics update process co-ordinate simultaneous switchover in statistics to new NSIC and the control of the quality of time seriesco-ordinate simultaneous switchover in statistics to new NSIC and the control of the quality of time series

12 NSIC setup process

13 Register update process

14 Statistics update process

15 Coordination of work Groups involved in the three processes need to be coordinatedGroups involved in the three processes need to be coordinated Need for a programme managerNeed for a programme manager Communication with users of the classification (potential data providers)Communication with users of the classification (potential data providers) Need to get other users involved in setup and keep them updated on work and impact according to a fixed scheduleNeed to get other users involved in setup and keep them updated on work and impact according to a fixed schedule

16 Criteria for developing NSIC Discussed in previous presentationDiscussed in previous presentation Should involve other stakeholders / users/ data providersShould involve other stakeholders / users/ data providers If sufficient, ISIC Rev.4 can be used as isIf sufficient, ISIC Rev.4 can be used as is In this case, tools (correspondence tables etc.) are readyIn this case, tools (correspondence tables etc.) are ready

17 Recoding the business register Based on known correspondence table, can use different methods:Based on known correspondence table, can use different methods: Direct (straight) recodingDirect (straight) recoding Use of additional info from NSO or external registersUse of additional info from NSO or external registers SurveysSurveys ProfilingProfiling Probabilistic modelsProbabilistic models

18 Recoding the business register Dual coding should be kept for several yearsDual coding should be kept for several years Problem: some units may cease operationProblem: some units may cease operation Use of reference dates may helpUse of reference dates may help Can be implemented by using a transition codeCan be implemented by using a transition code Reflect correspondence tableReflect correspondence table Can computer-assisted coding help?Can computer-assisted coding help?

19 Future statistical work Sampling procedures have to be updated for the new classificationSampling procedures have to be updated for the new classification Scope of categories may have changedScope of categories may have changed Should (at least for the transition period) produce estimates for old and new classificationShould (at least for the transition period) produce estimates for old and new classification Overall sample size may increaseOverall sample size may increase To increase reliability of dual-coded resultsTo increase reliability of dual-coded results To compensate for startup problems of the new classification (misclassification of units)To compensate for startup problems of the new classification (misclassification of units) To allow for increase of detail required in new classificationTo allow for increase of detail required in new classification To better evaluate coherence between old and new classificationTo better evaluate coherence between old and new classification

20 Sample timetable for transition (1) Jan 2009 BR recoded to old and new classification 2009 Continue sampling according to old NSIC but use Register information to tabulate the existing sample against the new strata in new NSIC. Use this scheme as the first attempt at the sample on the new basis. For strata that are weak, in terms of their sample size, estimate the numbers required for acceptable results on the new NSIC and seek approval to carry out this top-up of the sample

21 Sample timetable for transition (2) Jan 2010 Draw the sample on new NSIC (initially: old sample tabulated against the new industries and new strata, with weakest strata under the new NSIC boosted by a top-up of the sample) 2010 Calculate variance of the elements in the sample in each of the strata based on returned data. Use sample variances as approximations of the population variances and use Neyman allocation to calculate new samples. Jan 2011 Re-allocate the sample based on reported data (in a more efficient way now). The top-up sample can cease. Survey can be conducted according to new NSIC.

22 Additional guidance More detailed guidance for developing new national classification, recoding of business register, sampling design and weight estimation, backcasting is being prepared in the implementation materialsMore detailed guidance for developing new national classification, recoding of business register, sampling design and weight estimation, backcasting is being prepared in the implementation materials