PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Climate Change: How did we get here and what do we do now? Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Director, Climate Science Initiative Iowa State University Ames, Iowa Noon Rotary Club, Ames, IA 28, July 2008
Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Outline Comparison of natural variability of climate and human induced climate change Projections of future climate change Impact of climate change on “regions suitable for rain-fed agriculture”, including the US Midwest Climate change for Iowa and the Midwest: adaptation strategy Except where noted as personal views or from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet, all materials presented herein are from peer-reviewed scientific reports
CO 2, CH 4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203,
CO 2, CH 4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, Natural cycles Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years
IPCC Third Assessment Report
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS ppm Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS ppm Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS “Business as Usual” 950 ppm Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS “Business as Usual” 950 ppm ? Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.
Natural cycles
Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Not Natural
Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Not Natural Highly Likely Not Natural
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers Reduced Consumption Energy intensive Energy conserving
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Energy intensive Energy conserving Reduced Consumption
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers Reduced Consumption Energy intensive Energy conserving Adaptation Necessary Mitigation Possible
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Suitability Index for Rainfed Agriculture IPCC 2007
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Suitability Index for Rainfed Agriculture IPCC 2007
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Projected changes in precipitation between and for an energy-conserving scenario of greenhouse gas emissions IPCC 2007
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Temperature *Estimated from IPCC reports
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Precipitation * Estimated from IPCC reports
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Other * Estimated from IPCC and CCSP reports
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS For More Information For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have seen in this presentation, see my online Global Change course: Contact me directly: Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at Iowa State Unversity under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program For this and other climate change presentations see my personal website: Or just Google Eugene Takle