Vision for Aviation Services Digital Products Jack May, Director Aviation Weather Center February 9, 2003

Outline Products TodayProducts Today Why Aviation is Different (Difficult)Why Aviation is Different (Difficult) In the mean time… (Interim Activities)In the mean time… (Interim Activities)

Present Products TAFTAF Area ForecastsArea Forecasts AIRMET/SIGMETAIRMET/SIGMET Significant Weather GraphicSignificant Weather Graphic Transcribed Weather Enroute Forecast (TWEB)Transcribed Weather Enroute Forecast (TWEB) Route Forecast (ROFOR)Route Forecast (ROFOR)

Examples: Current Product Suite KATL Z G24KT P6SM BKN035 TEMPO 2124 SCT035 TEMPO 2124 SCT035 FM KT P6SM SCT035 FM KT P6SM SCT035 FM KT P6SM SCT030 FM KT P6SM SCT030 TEMPO 0812 BKN030 TEMPO 0812 BKN030 FM KT P6SM BKN020 FM KT P6SM BKN020 TEMPO SM BR TEMPO SM BR FM KT P6SM BKN020= FM KT P6SM BKN020=

Examples: Current Product Suite Area ForecastsArea Forecasts Boston FA Boston FA SYNOPSIS...AT 18Z CDFNT 100 NW NRN ME-ERN LH-NRN WI. TROF SRN ME CSTLN-CAPE COD-FAR SERN VA. BY 12Z CDFNT ME-CSTLN-SRN VT-CNTRL LE-SRN WI. LOW OVR MD CSTL WTRS WITH STNR FNT TO ERN NC..ALSO XTNDG NEWD FROMLOW...HENDERSON.. ME NH VT NRN ME…BKN070 TOPS Z SCT Z SKC. OTLK…VFR. NH VT SRN ME…SCT Z SKC OCNL SCT CI. OTLK…VFR BECMG MVFR VLYS 08Z. MA RI CT SCT Z SCT-BKN CI. OTLK…VFR NY LO LO WRN/CNTRL/NERN NY…SCT Z SCT CI. OTLK…VFR PA NJ SCT Z SCT-BKN CI. OTLK…MVFR BR MA DC DE VA MD DC DE NRN VA…SCT060 SCT-BKN100 TOPS TO 150. ISOL SHRA. OTLK…MVFR BR SWRN/S CNTRL/SERN VA…BKN-OVC LYRD TO 150. VIS OCNL 4-5SM SHRA. WDLY SCT TSRA SWRN VA…ISOL

Examples: Current Product Suite AIRMETsAIRMETs –Sierra –Tango –Zulu AIRMET SIERRA UPDT 4 FOR IFR AND MTN OBSN VALID UNTIL AIRMET MTN OBSCN…WV VA FROM EKN TO CSN TO 30N GSO TO HMV TO 40 WSW BKW TO EKN…MTNS OCNL OBSCD BY CLDS/PCPN BR. CONDS END Z. AIRMET IFR…VA FROM RIC TO ORF TO 40NE RDU TO HMV TO PSK TO RIC OCNL CIG BLW 010/VIS BLS 3SM BR. CONDS ENDG 15-16Z. ELSW… NO WDSPRD IFR EXP. AIRMET TANGO UPDT 2 FOR TURB VALID UNTIL AIRMET TURB…NH VT MA RI CT NY LE LO PA OH FROM MPV TO BOS TO ACK TO SAX TO JST TO HNN TO CVG TO FWA TO DXO…OCNL MOD TURB BTN FL280 AND FL350 DUE TO WIND SHEAR ASSOCD WITH JTST. CONDS ENDG 20Z. RMNDR…NO SGFNT TURB EXP EX INVOF CNVTV ACT. AIRMET ZULU UPDT 2 FOR ICE AND FRZLVL VALID UNTIL NO SGFNT ICE EXP OUTSIDE OF CNVTV ACT. FRZLVL… E OF YYZ-ERI-AIR-GSO LN NRN ME..RMNDR

LOW LEVEL WEATHER CHART

TWEB 357 TWEB KBLI-KPAE-KSEA. ALL HGTS MSL XCP CIGS. KBLI-KPAE...P6SM SKC...TIL 18Z KNUW-KFHR AREAS VIS BLO 3SM BR/FG CIGS BLO OVC010 TOPS 015. KPAE-KSEA...P6SM SKC...W PTN OF RTE 8SW KPAE-KPWT-KSHN-KTCM-KSEA-8SW KPAE WDSPRD VIS BLO 3SM BR/FG CIGS BLO OVC005 TOPS Z P6SM SKC....KSHN-KOLM LCL VIS BLO 3SM BR CIGS BLO OVC010 TOPS Z P6SM SKC.

ROFOR ROFOR VALID 16/23Z-17/01Z FOR ROUTE PHNL TO PJON FT N/ 2820P M M M W 19.0N/ 3215P M M M W SIG WX...NIL.

Digital Aviation Forecasts in NDFD Why so slow? FAA writes the rules. Following systems must be ready to accept new products:FAA writes the rules. Following systems must be ready to accept new products: –AFSS Model I –AFSS OASIS –DUATs –WARP –ADDS –Traffic Situation Displays –Training Across the Board

Digital Aviation Forecasts in NDFD Why so slow? All of the players involved:All of the players involved: –NWS –FAA Flight Standards (Regulations, transmission, pilot training)Flight Standards (Regulations, transmission, pilot training) Air Traffic (ARTCC, ATCSCC, TRACON)Air Traffic (ARTCC, ATCSCC, TRACON) Flight Service StationsFlight Service Stations DUATsDUATs –Aviation Organizations (AOPA, ALPA, ATA, SAMA, ADF) –International Conventions (ICAO, WAFS, MSC)

Digital, Gridded Data Requirements Why Aviation is Different Time ResolutionTime Resolution Vertical ResolutionVertical Resolution Weather TypeWeather Type –Cloud coverage or “cloud/no cloud” –Probability (in next 10 minutes?)

Digital Aviation Requirements Ceiling and Visibility every 15 minutes –Graphic shows Airport Arrival plan which is adjusted based on forecast.

Digital Aviation Requirements Wind direction and speed, every 5 minutes.Wind direction and speed, every 5 minutes. –Graphic shows planes lined up to land at O’Hare and Midway based on current runway configuration. Jan.20, 2003: 1730 UTC ORD & MDW Arrivals

Digital Aviation Requirements In convection, every 10 minutes for the first hour.In convection, every 10 minutes for the first hour. Mitre Corporation Automation-assisted Weather Problem Resolution Tool

Future Domestic Requirements Gridded Data (Draft) Time ResolutionTime Resolution –Hours 0-3: 15 minutes –Hours 3-24: 1 hour –Updates every 15 minutes. Vertical ResolutionVertical Resolution –Surface-1,000 AGL: Every 100 feet –1,000-3,000 feet: Every 200 feet –3,000 feet to FL650: Every 1,000 feet Horizontal ResolutionHorizontal Resolution –2.5 km NWS Integrated Work Team looking at very short term aviation forecasts in a post IFPS/NDFD environment

In the Meantime… What digital products exist or are being developed today?

National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF) BUFR File GRIB File Every Five Minutes!!!

Current Icing Potential

Turbulence AGTA

AGTA

Ceiling and Visibility

Graphical Area Forecast (GFA)

Replace current text Area Forecast as main product.Replace current text Area Forecast as main product. Text provided through product formattersText provided through product formatters –Using GAMET format GFA replace hours 9-24 of non- international TAFs.GFA replace hours 9-24 of non- international TAFs. –Assumes higher TAF refresh rate 0-9 hours. Issued in BUFR formatIssued in BUFR format

Graphical Area Forecast (GFA) BUFRBUFR –Earth referenced ‘objects’. Not gridded. –Meets WMO/ICAO standard for earth-referenced objects. –Allows display of individual features at user discretion. –Much lower traffic volume. Requires user to ‘build’ product at destination.Requires user to ‘build’ product at destination. –Already being done in the World Area Forecast System (WAFS)

Graphical Area Forecast Experiment (GFAX) Graphical Area Forecasts on experimental basis being prepared at AWC January 13- February 14.Graphical Area Forecasts on experimental basis being prepared at AWC January 13- February 14. PurposePurpose –Identify the production tools required. –Allow users to provide input on presentation. –Produce products to help develop text formatters.

GFAX Website