May 2001European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2 1 European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General 28th February 2003 Inventory and projection experts workshop Working group I and II of the EU GHG Monitoring mechanism Committee EU-wide projections of animal numbers Methodology and availability of data European Commission

May 2001European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2 2 European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General 28th February 2003 Availability of statistics, short-term estimates and long term projections (Agriculture Directorate General, Eurostat, other) Structure of the presentation Introduction Short-term estimates based on demographic models at Member States level Medium and long term market projections and policy analysis at EU15 and EU25 level Methodology and policy modeling Conclusion Summary of key findings Example of impact on animal numbers of proposed reform of Common Agricultural Policy CAP reform

May 2001European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2 3 European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General 28th February 2003 Surveys and censuses carried out by Member States and published by EUROSTAT Availability of statistics and projections Official Statistics Short-term projection of Gross Indigenous Production (number of heads) carried out by Member States and published by EUROSTAT

May 2001European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2 4 European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General 28th February 2003 Availability of statistics and projections Statistical annex of the Annual report on the situation of EU Agriculture Long-term prospects for agricultural markets Ad-hoc publications (e.g. impact assessment of Mid Term review of Agricultural Policy) Other official sources

May 2001European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2 5 European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General 28th February 2003 Methodological approach Gross Indigenous Production calculated by Member States on the basis of harmonised methodology –mostly based on detailed herd structure data provided by census and surveys –frequent use of other statistical sources, like administrative databases and registers –in most cases simple forecasts directly linked to breeding animal numbers Short-term projections

May 2001European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2 6 European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General 28th February 2003 Methodological approach DG Agriculture projections rely on a partial equilibrium model derived from the OECD AGLINK model –Partial equilibrium (more than 3100 equations, of which around 1500 endogenous) –Recursive dynamic –World coverage: 13 countries/regions –Product coverage: more than 30 commodities Prices (and policy) determine the level of production and consumption Output: balance sheet for main commodities, domestic and world market prices Long-term projections

May 2001European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2 7 European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General 28th February 2003 Methodological approach Currently published for EU-15 as a whole and for the Acceding Countries (yearly projections ): –Beef and veal production (in tons) –Dairy cow herd (in heads) –Pig meat production (in tons) –Poultry meat production (in tons) –Sheep and goat meat production (in tons) Long-term projections What is available?

May 2001European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2 8 European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General 28th February 2003 Methodological approach Long-term projections Dairy cows herd projections under status quo policy (Agenda 2000)

May 2001European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2 9 European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General 28th February 2003 Methodological approach The case of beef: –Beef and veal production (in tons) Long-term projections How it is calculated?

May 2001European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2 10 European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General 28th February 2003 Methodological approach The case of beef: –how to model direct payments Long-term projections How it is calculated? Ceiling Payments Cow numbers Price Supply Source: OECD Secretariat Ceiling

May 2001European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2 11 European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General 28th February 2003 The case of beef: –how to remove direct payments Price Supply Ceiling Impact of policy changes Impact of policy changes on total herd size Price Supply S S

May 2001European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2 12 European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General Expected impact of CAP reform proposals on beef production and prices Changes in beef production and prices, (%) 28th February 2003

May 2001European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2 13 European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General Expected impact of proposed CAP reform on cow herd Changes in cow herd, (%) 28th February 2003

May 2001European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2 14 European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General 28th February 2003 Detailed statistics are available both from Eurostat and DG Agriculture Short and long term projections are regularly published Conclusions Data availability Short-term estimates based on demographic models at Member States level Medium and long term market projections and policy analysis at EU15 and EU25 level based on large partial equilibrium models Methodology and policy modeling Example of impact on animal numbers of proposed reform of Common Agricultural Policy CAP reform

May 2001European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2 15 European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General 28th February References DG Agriculture web page Main publications available at : Long term prospects for agricultural markets : CAP reform: Impact analyses of the mid-term review July 2002 proposals: Agriculture in the European Union: Statistical and economic information 2001: