MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2009 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series.

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MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2009 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 1 Flow of Funds: Net Change in Supply of Stock 12/30/08 Dec-80 Dec-82 Dec-84 Dec-86 Dec-88 Dec-90 Dec-92 Dec-94 Dec-96 Dec-98 Dec-00 Dec-02 Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08 4 Quarter Moving Average $Billions

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2009 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 2 Flow of Funds: Households Percent Equity Percent Total Financial Assets Dec-80 Dec-82 Dec-84 Dec-86 Dec-88 Dec-90 Dec-92 Dec-94 Dec-96 Dec-98 Dec-00 Dec-02 Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08 12/30/ $Trillions

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2009 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 3 Flow of Funds: State & Local Government Employee Retirement Funds Equity Percent Total Financial Assets Dec-80 Dec-82 Dec-84 Dec-86 Dec-88 Dec-90 Dec-92 Dec-94 Dec-96 Dec-98 Dec-00 Dec-02 Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08 12/30/08 $Billions Percent

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2009 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 4 Net Purchases of U.S. Equities by Foreign Investors minus Net Purchases of Foreign Equities by U.S. Investors December 08 Dec 80 Dec 82 Dec 84 Dec 86 Dec 88 Dec 90 Dec 92 Dec 94 Dec 96 Dec 98 Dec 00 Dec 02 Dec 04 Dec 06 Dec 08 $Billions

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2009 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 5 Net Purchases of U.S. Equities by Foreign Investors 12/30/08 Dec 80 Dec 82 Dec 84 Dec 86 Dec 88 Dec 90 Dec 92 Dec 94 Dec 96 Dec 98 Dec 00 Dec 02 Dec 04 Dec 06 Dec $Billions

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2009 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 6 Net Purchases of Foreign Equities by U.S. Investors 12/30/08 Dec 80 Dec 82 Dec 84 Dec 86 Dec 88 Dec 90 Dec 92 Dec 94 Dec 96 Dec 98 Dec 00 Dec 02 Dec 04 Dec 06 Dec $Billions

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2009 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 7 New Equity Financing February 2009 Monthly 12-Month Total Dec-80 Dec-82 Dec-84 Dec-86 Dec-88 Dec-90 Dec-92 Dec-94 Dec-96 Dec-98 Dec-00 Dec-02 Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec Month Totals $Billions

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2009 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 8 Secondary Distributions: Value 4/24/09 52-Week Moving Average 2/15/81 2/15/83 2/15/85 2/15/87 2/15/89 2/15/91 2/15/93 2/15/95 2/15/97 2/15/99 2/15/01 2/15/03 2/15/05 2/15/07 2/15/09

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2009 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 9 Margin Debt versus % of Market Value Margin Debt % of Market Value 2/15/81 2/15/83 2/15/85 2/15/87 2/15/89 2/15/91 2/15/93 2/15/95 2/15/97 2/15/99 2/15/01 2/15/03 2/15/05 2/15/07 2/15/09 February 09 $Billions

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2009 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 10 Insider Sell/Buy Ratio 4/24/09 Index Bearish Bullish 8-Week Moving Average S&P 500

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2009 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 11 Equity Mutual Funds: Cash Percentage of Net Assets February 09 Jan 80 Jan 82 Jan 84 Jan 86 Jan 88 Jan 90 Jan 92 Jan 94 Jan 96 Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2009 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 12 Sales (Including Reinvested Dividends) and Redemptions of Equity Mutual Funds February 09 Sales Redemptions Jan 82 Jan 84 Jan 86 Jan 88 Jan 90 Jan 92 Jan 94 Jan 96 Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan $Billions

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2009 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 13 February 09 Jan 82 Jan 84 Jan 86 Jan 88 Jan 90 Jan 92 Jan 94 Jan 96 Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan $Billions Net Sales of Equity Mutual Funds (Including Reinvested Dividends)

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2009 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 14 Net Exchanges into Equity Mutual Funds February 09 Dec 86 Dec 88 Dec 90 Dec 92 Dec 94 Dec 96 Dec 98 Dec 00 Dec 02 Dec 04 Dec 06 Dec 08 Jan 86 Jan 88 Jan 90 Jan 92 Jan 94 Jan 96 Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Monthly $Billions

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2009 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 15 Equity Mutual Funds: Total Flows February 09 Jan 82 Jan 84 Jan 86 Jan 88 Jan 90 Jan 92 Jan 94 Jan 96 Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Monthly $Billions

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2009 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 16 Equity Mutual Funds: Net Purchases of Common Stock Jan 84 Jan 86 Jan 88 Jan 90 Jan 92 Jan 94 Jan 96 Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 February 09 Monthly $Billions

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2009 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 17 S&P 500 Dividend Yield vs. Price / Earnings Ratio Yield Jan 82 Jan 84 Jan 86 Jan 88 Jan 90 Jan 92 Jan 94 Jan 96 Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 March 09 Dividend Yield P/E Ratio

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2009 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 18 ISE 10-Day Put/Call Ratio Index S&P Day Ratio 4/24/09

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2009 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 19 Options Clearing Corp. (OCC) Equity Option Premium Put/Call Ratio vs. NYSE Composite Bearish S&P Week Moving Average Jan 90 Jan 91 Jan 92 Jan 93 Jan 94 Jan 95 Jan 96 Jan 97 Jan 98 Jan 99 Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 4/3/09 Bullish

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2009 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 20 Options Clearing Corp. (OCC) Index Options Premium Put/Call Ratio vs. NYSE Composite 4-Wk. Moving Average S&P 500 Bullish Bearish Jan 90 Jan 91 Jan 92 Jan 93 Jan 94 Jan 95 Jan 96 Jan 97 Jan 98 Jan 99 Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 4/3/09

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2009 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 21 Consensus Inc. Bullish Percentage: Equities Bearish S&P 500 Bullish 4-Week Moving Average Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 4/29/09

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2009 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 22 Bulls as a % of Bulls + Bears from Investor’s Intelligence Bearish Bullish S&P Week Moving Average Jan 90 Jan 91 Jan 92 Jan 93 Jan 94 Jan 95 Jan 96 Jan 97 Jan 98 Jan 99 Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 4/17/09

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2009 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 23 Bulls as a % of Bulls + Bears from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Jan 90 Jan 91 Jan 92 Jan 93 Jan 94 Jan 95 Jan 96 Jan 97 Jan 98 Jan 99 Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 4/17/09 Bearish Bullish 4-Week Moving Average S&P 500

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2009 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 24 NYSE Total Short Interest vs. Short Interest Ratio Percent March 09 Total Short Interest Short Interest Ratio Jan 90 Jan 92 Jan 94 Jan 96 Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan Billions