Why were we there? WMD George W. Bush Bush Advisors 9/11 Preventive War US Strategic Culture Oil

 WMD  Disbanding Iraqi Army  De-Bathification  Military Strategy – Search and Destroy Conveying overly negative image

 Underestimating the influence of Iran in Iraqi Shiite politics  Cultural differences: Arabs vs. Kurds  Misunderstanding of terrorism

 Security (Transportation, Blackwater, Weapons, Borders)  Economically: Where is the money going?  Winning hearts and minds

 How do you measure success?  The “Surge”  COIN strategy: U.S. and Iraqi forces together  Indirect Counterinsurgency  The Anbar Awakening  Saddam out of power  Increased enlistment into Iraqi Army/Reduced US presence  Elections/New Government  Normal life resumed?

Kurd independence? Mapping the new Middle East Egypt

 Total -- 28,395,716 (est. July 2010)  Structure  0-14 years: 43.6%  years: 54%  65 years and over: 2.4%  Median Age – 18 years  Life expectancy – 44.4 years  24% in urban centers

Ethnic groups Pashtun 42%, Tajik 27%, Hazara 9%, Uzbek 9%, Aimak 4%, Turkmen 3%, Baloch 2%, other 4% Religion Sunni Muslim 80%, Shia Muslim 19%, Other 1% Language Afghan Persian or Dari (official) 50%, Pashto (official) 35%, Turkic languages (primarily Uzbek and Turkmen) 11%, 30 minor languages (primarily Balochi and Pashai) 4%,

 GDP  $27.01 billion (2009 est.) – 110 in world rank  $1,000/capita (2009 est.) – 210 in world rank  Labor – 15 million (2004 est.)  agriculture: 78.6%  industry: 5.7%  services: 15.7% (FY08/09 est.)  35% unemployed (2008 est.)  Products  Agricultural -- opium, wheat, fruits, nuts; wool, mutton, sheepskins, lambskins  Industrial -- small-scale production of consumer goods; hand- woven carpets; natural gas, coal, copper

 1747 – unification of the Pashtun tribes  independence from notional British control  1973 coup and a 1978 Communist counter-coup resulted in Soviet Union invasion 1979  1989 USSR withdrawal  1996 end of civil war period control by Taliban  11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in NYC and Washington, D.C.  7 October 2001 U.S., Allied, and anti-Taliban Northern Alliance military action toppled the Taliban.  December 2004, Hamid KARZAI became the first democratically elected president of Afghanistan and the National Assembly was inaugurated the following December.

 Executive – Hamid Karzai –  Head of state and  Command-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Afghanistan.  Legislative -- National Assembly or Parliament.  Lower house is the Wolesi Jirga (the House of People)  Upper house is the Meshrano Jirga. (House of Elders)  Judicial  Supreme Court (Stera Mahkama), High Courts, and Appeal Courts.  Supreme Court is composed of nine members  Appointed by the President for a period of ten years  Approval of the Wolesi Jirga.

LEAD INTERNATIONAL FORCES IN AFGHANISTAN (pre-surge)

 The Taliban, Sunni fundamentalists, had controlled most of Afghanistan since 1996 after defeat of the Northern Alliance. They provided safe haven for Osama Bin Laden and other members of al Qaeda during their planning of the 9/11 “Planes Operation”  The Taliban were only recognized by 3 other states and were known for a brutal strict interpretation of Sharia Law. The provided a training ground for radical Islamic terrorists

Operation “Enduring Freedom”, The US-led invasion in 2001 was largely special forces, CIA and air support for Northern Alliance forces, toppled the Taliban in just 2 months. Remnants of the Taliban moved to the Tora Bora region in Eastern Afghanistan or in to Pakistan

History of Invasion – British, Soviet Union

 The UN Security Council created the NATO International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) to rebuild Afghanistan and provide security.  Hamid Karzai, “The Mayor of Kabul”  By 2003 the Taliban had regrouped in Pakistan  By 2007 Security incidents increased 300%.  IED attacks rose by 37%  The Karzai govt control only75% of the country  Over 1000 civilians killed by ISAF

Afghanistan is not Iraq

 Afghanistan is 174 th of 178 countries on the UN development index  Afghanistan is 176 th of 180 countries on the UN corruption index  GDP per capita is $456, up from 352 last year  90% of Aghan budget comes from foreign aid  Afghanistan supplies 90% of the world’s opium, worth $3 billion to the economy  Taliban make $200 million per year from taxing poppy production

 The Afghan “Surge”  ISAF now numbers 120K up from 70k (90k are American)  Indirect Counterinsurgency has reduced civilian casualties by half  “Clear, Hold, Build……and Transfer/WHAM  Focus remains Helmand & Kandahar provinces  Afghan Army and police recruiting are up, but illiteracy and desertion still present a problem

 What would represent a successful outcome?  What policies would you recommend?