Lecture 28: Now What? March 13, 2009

Additional CLUE Session Monday 3/16, 228 in MGH from 6:30 to 8:00 Monday 3/16, 228 in MGH from 6:30 to 8:00

Growth Disparities

Foreign Aid, % Gross National Income UN target 0.7% GNI (The Reality of Aid 2004, Norway Denmark Netherlands Sweden Belgium Ireland France Switzerland United Kingdom Germany Canada Australia Spain New Zealand Portugal Japan Italy U.S.A

Challenges Global warming Global warming Global inequality Global inequality Humanitarian crises Humanitarian crises Accommodating rising powers Accommodating rising powers Barriers to collective action: diverging interests, ideals Barriers to collective action: diverging interests, ideals North vs. south North vs. south Democracy idealists vs. touchy autocrats Democracy idealists vs. touchy autocrats Conflicts of interest based on economic position Conflicts of interest based on economic position

What is to be done? Tweak existing institutions Tweak existing institutions UN Security Council: add Germany, Japan, Brazil, India, Nigeria/South Africa? UN Security Council: add Germany, Japan, Brazil, India, Nigeria/South Africa? IMF/World Bank Reform IMF/World Bank Reform Create new institutions Create new institutions Successor to Kyoto Successor to Kyoto New Bretton Woods? (Washington ) New Bretton Woods? (Washington ) Regulate exotic trading Regulate exotic trading Restrain excessive borrowing Restrain excessive borrowing Prevent currency manipulation Prevent currency manipulation Result of 11/08: lame duck president, lots of words, little action Result of 11/08: lame duck president, lots of words, little action New financial architecture can’t be designed overnight New financial architecture can’t be designed overnight Problem: enforcement, as always Problem: enforcement, as always Leadership Leadership US? US? Others? Others?

Name the era… Fareed Zakaria: The Post-American World Fareed Zakaria: The Post-American World “while we argue over why they hate us, "they" have moved on, and are now far more interested in other, more dynamic parts of the globe. The world has shifted from anti-Americanism to post- Americanism.” “while we argue over why they hate us, "they" have moved on, and are now far more interested in other, more dynamic parts of the globe. The world has shifted from anti-Americanism to post- Americanism.” Richard Haass: Nonpolarity Richard Haass: Nonpolarity “The principal characteristic of twenty-first-century international relations is turning out to be nonpolarity: a world dominated not by one or two or even several states but rather by dozens of actors possessing and exercising various kinds of power. This represents a tectonic shift from the past…Nonpolarity complicates diplomacy. A nonpolar world not only involves more actors but also lacks the more predictable fixed structures and relationships that tend to define worlds of unipolarity, bipolarity, or multipolarity.” “The principal characteristic of twenty-first-century international relations is turning out to be nonpolarity: a world dominated not by one or two or even several states but rather by dozens of actors possessing and exercising various kinds of power. This represents a tectonic shift from the past…Nonpolarity complicates diplomacy. A nonpolar world not only involves more actors but also lacks the more predictable fixed structures and relationships that tend to define worlds of unipolarity, bipolarity, or multipolarity.”

What is to be done? Tweak existing institutions Tweak existing institutions UN Security Council: add Germany, Japan, Brazil, India, Nigeria/South Africa UN Security Council: add Germany, Japan, Brazil, India, Nigeria/South Africa IMF/World Bank Reform IMF/World Bank Reform Create new institutions Create new institutions New Bretton Woods? (Washington ) New Bretton Woods? (Washington ) Regulate exotic trading Regulate exotic trading Restrain excessive deficits Restrain excessive deficits Monitor currency manipulation Monitor currency manipulation Result of 11/08: lame duck president, lots of words, little action Result of 11/08: lame duck president, lots of words, little action New financial architecture can’t be designed overnight New financial architecture can’t be designed overnight Problem: enforcement, as always Problem: enforcement, as always Successor to Kyoto Successor to Kyoto Leadership Leadership US? US? Others? Others? Shared/collective leadership: G-20? (London: April 2, 2009) Shared/collective leadership: G-20? (London: April 2, 2009)

G-20: The Future?

What is to be done? Tweak existing institutions Tweak existing institutions UN Security Council: add Germany, Japan, Brazil, India, Nigeria/South Africa UN Security Council: add Germany, Japan, Brazil, India, Nigeria/South Africa IMF/World Bank Reform IMF/World Bank Reform Create new institutions Create new institutions New Bretton Woods? (Washington ) New Bretton Woods? (Washington ) Successor to Kyoto Successor to Kyoto Leadership Leadership US? US? Others? Others? Shared leadership: G-20? (London: April 2, 2009) Shared leadership: G-20? (London: April 2, 2009) Non-state actors: non-profits Non-state actors: non-profits The “masses” The “masses”

Into the 21 st Century… Dubai

…or back to the 20 th ?