Reporting Climate Change Thomas Abraham

The story of the century Science Politics Economics Controversy The future of the earth

What is this all about? Since the industrial revolution in the 17 th -18 th centuries, we have developed a civilization based on extracting and burning fossil fuels for energy Burning fossil fuels releases carbon dioxide in the atmosphere So does clearing forests Rice cultivation and animal rearing releases methane, another GHG into the atmosphere

Rising levels of C02 and some other gases have led to rising global temperatures If this continues, it could have fundamental consequences for life on earth What do we do about it? Are any of us willing to change our way of life? Are there scientific and technological solutions?

The earth’s changing climate Earth is 4.5 billion years old (approx) For more than half this period- the earth’s atmosphere has been poisonous to life as we know it : C02 and ammonia rich million years ago: activity of carbon breathing life forms (cyanobacteria) led to an oxygen rich atmosphere which allowed other life forms to evolve The carbon was turned into what we now use for fuel

The earth’s changing climate The earth’s climate has seen cycles of ice ages and thawing periods—glacial and interglacial periods Around a dozen ice ages in the last million years, with the last one around 20,000 years ago. Currently, we have been in an interglacial period for the last 12,000 years or so. Next ice age: in around 50,000 years from now?

Michael McCracken, Climate Institute

What are the main greenhouse gases contributing to warming?

Michael McCracken, Climate Institute

Sources of greenhouse gas emissions Source- UNEP, UN Environmental Programme

What has the impact been? Global average temperature increased by about 0.6 c over the 20 th century In the coming century, projected to rise 3-5 c of the 12 warmest years recorded since 1850 Sea levels rising at 3.1 mm a year since 1993 Polar ice caps melting Extreme weather events

But well before that, what will the impact of warming be?

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Two terms you need to know Mitigation: ie what are going to do to reduce GHG Adaptation: what are we going to do to adapt to the impact of climate change?

What are we doing about it? At the international level, arguing about what to do, and who is to do it

UNFCCC was adopted in 1992, and sets the framework for governments to work together to tackle the challenges posed by climate change

The Kyoto protocol to the UNFCCC Adopted in 1997 at a meeting in Kyoto Committed industrialised countries to “reduce their overall emissions of such( ie greenhouse) gases by at least 5 per cent below 1990 levels in the commitment period 2008 to 2012” The United States the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases did not ratify the agreement. Neither did Australia. Australia later ratified.

What have countries agreed to do? Reduce emissions so that temperature rises are limited to 2 C above pre-industrial levels The sum total of official emission reduction pledges from all countries so far amounts to only around 60 percent of what is needed to limit the temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-Industrial levels.

Who is to pay, and who is responsible?

RankCountry Annual CO2 emissions [8][9] (in thousands of metric tonnes) [8][9] Percentage of global total World29,321,302100% 1 China [10]China [10] 6,534,367.00(2011)22.30% 2 United States 5,833,381.00(2011)19.91% - European Union (27)European Union4,177, [11] [11] 14.04% 3 Russia 1,729,357.00(2011)5.50% 4 India 1,495,362.00(2011)5.24% 5 Japan 1,214,543.00(2011)4.28% World’s largest emitters of CO2

Equity in reducing emissions Graph: Wikimedia

What happens after 2012? The world has been trying desperately to try and agree on a new agreement to reduce GHG’s and also to help adaptation to climate change A series of high level ministerial meetings have been held known as COP’s ( Conference of the Parties to the UNFCC) Copenhagen 2009, Cancun 2010, Durban Doha in Nov 2012

Main issues What are the developing countries- ie China and India going to commit? What are the rich countries, particularly the US going to commit? How much is it going to cost? Who will pay?

Commitments India: "India will endeavour to reduce the emission intensity of its GDP by 20 to 25% by 2020 in comparison to the 2005 level. The emissions from the agriculture sector will not form part of the assessment of emissions intensity."

China: "China will endeavour to lower its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 40-45% by 2020 compared to the 2005 level, increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 15% by 2020 and increase forest coverage by 40 million hectares and forest stock volume by 1.3 billion cubic meters by 2020 from the 2005 levels."

United States The United States communicated a target in the range of a 17 per cent emission reduction by 2020 compared with 2005 levels, in conformity with anticipated United States legislation

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How do we move to a low carbon future? New sustainable energy technologies- renewable energy sources, nuclear energy(?) Increasing forest cover Changes in agricultural practices ( rice cultivation in paddies is a source of methane gas) Change livestock cultivation practices ( live stock another source of methane)

Funding this process Emissions trading CDM ( Clean Development Mechanism)- Rich countries can fund emission reducing projects in poor countries and get credit for this Green Climate Fund set up Rich countries have agreed to provide $ 30 billion in fast start finance for developing countries

Who is going to suffer the most The poor… In small island nations ( the Maldives for example) Sub-Saharan Africa, where droughts, extreme weather conditions could push populations into poverty The poor in all societies

Story lines Follow the COP process- next one in Doha. Some organizations provide fellowships for journalists to attend Track effects of climate change wherever you are…( be sure they can really be attributed to long term climate change) Build a contact list of scientists working in this area Track Science and Nature, where a lot of new studies appear Look at the money and the business of climate change

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