Click to edit Master title style City Issues and Data Workshop Canberra Using Forecasting for Policy Development Mishka Foster Economic Development Branch Brisbane City Council

Brisbane’s Policy Challenge – identifying the dimensions of growth n Council land use & infrastructure planning - historically informed by population growth projections n First commissioning of employment & economic activity forecasts in 2004 n Inspired significant policy shift

How the NIEIR model works (inputs to the model) 2026 (key model outputs) (ABS Statistical Local Area) ECONOMIC DRIVERS Population & demographics Land supply and zoning Current businesses and jobs GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS Employment by place of residence Employment by place of work Industries CURRENTFUTURE

Key Findings 1. Employment growth 2X population growth 2. 50% increase in employment a significant challenge for transport accessibility 3. Residential/economic land use conflict 4. Need for CBD re-conceptualisation 5. SEQ Regional Plan not addressing employment/economic needs

Employment growth – double population growth

Brisbane population growth is on a declining trend Actual and Forecast Population Growth, Rest of SEQ and Brisbane,

SEQ employment growth higher than anticipated

As the Region populates, Brisbane’s economy expands

Population growth is forecast to exceed employment growth in most SEQ LGAs

SEQ Regional Plan identified ‘Activity’ Centres, based on population growth and retailing

Cleveland Capalaba Carindale Upper Mt Gravatt Indooroopilly Chermside Expanded CBD ATC Toowong St Lucia Richlands Rochedale Wacol Springfield Springwood Brisbane City Council Forecasts identify Activity Centres, based on economic activity Forecasts identify Activity Centres, based on economic activity BOTH SEQRP NIEIR Acacia Ridge

The workforce is changing

Inner Brisbane & Australia TradeCoast are key export growth areas Australia TradeCoast CBD and Inner City Australia TradeCoast Future Industry

Employment growth centres have different characteristics…. Matrix of Top 3 Industries in High Growth Employment Centres

Click to edit Master title style CBD Employment 2006 = 140, = 215,009 Greater CBD Employment 2006 = 220, = 365,319 West End Bardon Paddington East Brisbane Toowong Herston Bulimba Coorparoo Greenslopes Kelvin Grove Ashgrove Hamilton Fairfield Norman Park Newmarket Indooroopilly Hawthorne Inner Brisbane is growing rapidly

APPLYING THE FORECASTS 1. Identify High Employment Growth SLAs 2. Identify High Employment Growth CCDs within SLAs 3. Aggregate CCDs into minimum of 4 per cluster based on ground truthing 4. Split out Industrial/Commercial Employment Segments 5. Apportion SLA Industrial Structure to Aggregated Cluster 5. Apportion SLA Commercial Structure to Aggregated Cluster 6. Apply GFA Ratios to Employment Structure 7. Identify top 3 job sectors within each cluster

TOP DOWN/BOTTOM UP APPROACH EMPLOYMENT GROWTH CLUSTERS NIEIR EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS Lot Level Information (rates data, city plan)

LAND USE IN INDUSTRIAL CLUSTERS

LAND USE IN COMMERCIAL CLUSTERS

Output Example

Applying The Forecasts n Regional land use planning CityPlan SEQ Regional Plan Review n Local area planning Neighbourhood Plans, Urban Renewal, ULDA n Transport Planning n Major Infrastructure Assessment

Transport infrastructure activates economic drivers n Skilled labour pool relevant to business needs n Land availability and cost n Transport access for workers and businesses Congestion is the most important infrastructure issue impacting on SEQ’s future economic success.

Travel times are a key driver n Travel times determine the accessibility of population to jobs, schools, shops, etc. and employers to workers. n Model assumptions based on behaviour patterns in other comparable cities: 45 minute catchment for labour availability 15 minute catchment for retail expenditure at shopping centres

Differential impact across SEQ – Beaudesert and LGAs around Brisbane worst affected. Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Brisbane and Western Councils least affected. A 5 min increase in travel times creates a labour accessibility constraint on business growth and results in an overall loss of 135,000 jobs in SEQ by 2026

Addressing the economic imperatives n The forecasts demonstrate the potential to increase the economic performance of SEQ as a whole region. n Future success driven by productivity and competitiveness, not population. n Inter-connectedness of local regional economies increases economic efficiency and productivity

Priority issues n Securing land for business growth in the forecast growth locations will deliver strongest economic outcomes for the whole community n Effective transport infrastructure connecting employment locations will maximise efficiency, productivity and employment n Financial mechanisms needed to bring forward investment.