The Economics Implications of Fuel Management: Sagebrush Rangelands Authors: Michael Taylor, Kimberly Rollins, Mimako Kobayashi, Robin Tausch Presenter: Laine Christman (UNR) For the Eastern Nevada Landscape Coalition and Nevada Pinyon-Juniper Joint Summer Conference July 16 th, 2014

Introduction and Study Area  Why the Great Basin?  Suffering from invasive grass and PJ encroachment  Wildfire contributes to these threats  Ecosystem changes effects costs of fighting fire, habitat, ranching, recreation values, etc.  Treatments to reduce threats  Reduce fuel loading/characteristics – lessen wildfire severity  Restore health and resiliency of the ecosystem  What is the value of these treatments?  One approach – put benefits in terms of reduced future wildfire suppression costs Wyoming Mountain Big

The Model  Inputs  Treatment cost (per acre) and probability of success  FRI and cost of wildfire (per acre)  Transition time between ecologic health states  Assume a finite number of year without wildfire or treatment  Assume fire in “healthy state” is, fire in “unhealthy state” is   Simulation Based – dynamic  Changes happen over time  Uncertainty regarding state, success, fire  Defined States of Health  Mountain Big Sagebrush  Healthy = Shrubs/ native grass or mix PJ/shrubs/ native grass  Unhealthy = Closed Canopy PJ or invasive grass dominated  Wyoming Sagebrush Steppe  Healthy = Shrubs/grass  Unhealthy = Decadent sagebrush/grass or invasive grass dominated

STM Big Mountain Sagebrush (>6500 ft)

STM Wyoming Sagebrush Steppe ( ft)

Results - WSS Wyoming Sagebrush Steppe - Initial Ecological State WSS-1 Healthy sagebrush WSS-2 Mature woody brush with annual grass WSS-3 Annual Grass Dominated Avg. Total Suppression Costs (NPV) – No Treatment $350$364$390 Avg. Total Suppression Costs (NPV)– With Treatment $56$231$251 Avg. Cost of Treatment(s) $19.50$205$164 Average Wildfire NET Suppression Costs Savings (NPV) $272-$72-$2,782 Average Benefit Cost Ratio (NPV) WSS-1 Benefit = $272/acre (CBR = 13.3) Tx Cost - $19.50/acres and highly successful are preventing transition Expected wildfire cost savings = $293/acre WSS-2 Treatment is expensive ($205/acre) only successful half the time Failure moves to WSS-3 WSS-3 reduces wildfire suppression costs Treatment is extremely expensive Rarely successful

Result Table - MBS Mountain Big Sagebrush - Initial Ecological State MBS-1 Healthy sagebrush MBS-2 PJ, mature sagebrush &cheatgrass MBS-2 Closed-canopy PJ & cheatgrass MBS-3 Cheatgrass dominated Avg. Total Suppression Costs (NPV) – No Treatment $273$561$576$1,448 Avg. Total Suppression Costs (NPV) – With Treatment $16$158$793$894 Avg. Cost of Treatment(s) $19.50$45.50$205$164 Ave Wildfire NET Suppression Costs Savings (NPV) $90$358-$419-$2,332 Ave. Benefit Cost Ratio (NPV) MBS-1 & MBS-2 Only BCR greater than 1 Cheap, successful, prevent transition MBS-3& MBS-4 Expensive, unsuccessful Not a good return on investment

Results and Conclusion  Take Home Message  Fuel treatment are cost effective for healthiest states only  Treatment costs are relatively cheap and success is relatively high  Results hold for a range of different success rates  Fuel treatment costs greater than expected wildfire costs for unhealthiest states  Once degraded, benefits reduce dramatically  Rehabilitation costs are expensive and success is relative low  Fuel Treatment Priority for a uniform landscape  Focus on lands that have not yet transitioned 1.WSS-1 = MBS-1b CBR = MBS-1a CBR = 5.7

Thank You