Forecast Verification Working group on Extended Range Prediction Ministry of Earth System Sciences, India.

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Forecast Verification Working group on Extended Range Prediction Ministry of Earth System Sciences, India

Forecast of Monsoon Onset over Kerala Based on 16 May 2013: 29 May 2013 Onset date forecasts are obtained from each 11 member of CFSv2 45 day forecast. Then ensemble mean is given as the final forecasted onset date. Y axis on each panel is in mm/day for rainfall (bars) and m/s for 850hPa wind(green line). Red circle is the onset date and also written at the top of each panel Onset declared by IMD: 1 st June 2013

NCEP/TRMM Analysis Wind (850hPa) and R/F Verification CFSv2 GFSbc F/C from 16May IC F/C from 16May IC

NCEP/TRMM Analysis Wind (850hPa) and R/F Verification CFSv2 GFSbc F/C from 26May IC F/C from 26May IC

Spatial pentad mean pattern

Obs pentad mean r/f total (mm/day) For period 1-5 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 1-5 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 31May P4-lead, IC 16May P3-lead, IC 21May P2-lead, IC 26May GFSbcCFS

Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day) For period 1-5 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 1-5 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 31May P4-lead, IC 16May P3-lead, IC 21May P2-lead, IC 26May GFSbcCFS

Obs pentad mean r/f total (mm/day) For period 6-10 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 6-10 June, 2013 GFSbcCFS P1-lead, IC 5June P4-lead, IC 21May P3-lead, IC 26May P2-lead, IC 31May

Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day) For period 6-10 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 6-10 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 5June P4-lead, IC 21May P3-lead, IC 26May P2-lead, IC 31May GFSbcCFS

Obs pentad mean r/f total (mm/day) For period June, 2013 Forecast valid For period June, 2013 GFSbcCFS P1-lead, IC 10June P4-lead, IC 26May P3-lead, IC 31May P2-lead, IC 5June

Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day) For period June, 2013 Forecast valid For period June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 10June P4-lead, IC 26May P3-lead, IC 31May P2-lead, IC 5June GFSbc CFS

CFS-GFS Forecast Verification Over Homogenous Regions MZI, CEI, NEI, NWI & SPI

CFS, CEI

GFSbc, CEI

CFS, MZI

GFSbc, MZI

CFS, NEI

GFSbc, NEI

CFS, NWI

GFSbc, NWI

CFS, SPI

GFSbc, SPI

16 May IC21 May IC MISO F/C verification (OBS is for 25 days only)

26 May IC31 May IC MISO F/C verification (OBS is for 15 days only)(OBS is for 20 days only)

Useful Information from the Forecast  Onset forecast including the large scale circulation features during the onset phase has been predicted with success.  The increased rainfall activity with the arrival of a convective phase of MISO over Monsoon Zone and other homogeneous regions has been outlined in a qualitative way 2-3 pentad in advance for the mid June spells.  The deterministic as well as probabilistic forecast of rainfall over different homogeneous regions fared well up to 3-4 pentad from the initial conditions used so far.

MISO monitoring and forecast  The MISO monitoring and forecast has been made available online in real-time for the first time using the Extended EOF method.  In many instances the verification of MISO amplitude found to be qualitatively successful in predicting the phase of MISO over different homogeneous regions of India.

Achievements of the Extended Range Forecasting System  A rigorous verification scheme of CFSv2 forecast has been established.  Indigenous method for generating Ensemble forecast has been designed.  Operational requirements are given priority in generating the forecast and data dissemination.