National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property Precipitation Potential Placement ER Flash Flood Workshop Jeff Myers/Jim Noel NOAA/NWS/OHRFC

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

The Moisture-Stability Index (MSI) and its Application to Flash Flood Forecasting in the Hawaiian Islands Kevin Kodama and Robert Ballard NOAA/NWS Honolulu.

Advertisements

Report of the Q2 Short Range QPF Discussion Group Jon Ahlquist Curtis Marshall John McGinley - lead Dan Petersen D. J. Seo Jean Vieux.

Winter Weather Forecasting An Empirical Approach to Winter Storm Forecasting for the National Weather Service Springfield, Missouri Forecast Area.

Formation of Precipitation Requires Cooling of air to  dew point temperature (requires a lifting mechanism) Condensation of water vapor onto nuclei (dust,

Louisville, KY August 4, 2009 Flash Flood Frank Pereira NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

Seeder-Feeder Mechanism When topography is too shallow to force a pure orographic cloud, a seeder-feeder mechanism may operate: –Ice crystals produced.

Midlatitude Cyclones Equator-to-pole temperature gradient tilts pressure surfaces and produces westerly jets in midlatitudes Waves in the jet induce divergence.

 The main focus is investigating the dynamics resulting in synoptically forced training convective rainfall  Synoptic conditions necessary for the generation.

National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property NOAA/NWS Ohio River Forecast Center Hydrology 1913 to Ohio State Severe Weather Symposium.

NOAA/NWS Change to WRF 13 June What’s Happening? WRF replaces the eta as the NAM –NAM is the North American Mesoscale “timeslot” or “Model Run”

Forecasting extreme rainfall Iand getting people to listen to watches or warnings Can be difficult!! Wes Junker Wes Because…….

A tale of two severe weather surprises – The isolated event of 16 July 2010 and the severe weather outbreak of 17 July 2010 Neil A. Stuart NOAA/NWS Albany,

A Compare and Contrast Study of Two Banded Snow Storms Part I – January 6 th, 2002.

The Collaborative Effort Between Stony Brook University and the National Weather Service Part 3 – Integration of Mesoscale Models in Operational Weather.

The Use of Ensemble and Anomaly Data during the May 2006 New England Record Rain Event Neil A. Stuart Richard Grumm Walter Drag NOAA/NWS Albany,

An Examination of the Tropical System – Induced Flooding in Central New York and Northeast Pennsylvania in 2004.

WEATHER PATTERNS. VOCABULARY Weather- the temperature, humidity, precipitation, and wind at a particular place and time. Weather- the temperature, humidity,

Ensemble Post-Processing and it’s Potential Benefits for the Operational Forecaster Michael Erickson and Brian A. Colle School of Marine and Atmospheric.

June 23, 2011 Kevin Werner NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center 1 NOAA / CBRFC Water forecasts and data in support of western water management.

Determining Favorable Days for Summertime Severe Convection in the Deep South Chad Entremont NWS Jackson, MS.

Develop and use models to explain how relationships between the movement and interactions of air masses, high and low pressure systems, and frontal boundaries.

Corfidi, et al – convection where air parcels originate from a moist absolutely unstable layer above the PBL. Can produce severe hail, damaging.

1 QPF Part 2 of 3 COMAP 99 Wes Junker Monday, 13 September 1999

National Flood Workshop “Precipitable Water Values Associated with Recent Flood Events in Southeast Texas” Paul Lewis 1.

Aim of the lesson By the end of the lesson I should know The characteristics of the 3 types of rainfall. The similarities between the types of rainfall.

Satellite remote sensing in the classroom: Tracking the onset, propagation and variability of the North American monsoon Dorothea Ivanova Embry-Riddle.

Christopher S. Foltz Jeremy Martin Brad Mickelson NWS WFO Goodland, KS 13 th High Plains Conference August 2009.

Poorly Forecast Convection During the Evening of 20 July 2008 in Southern North Dakota Justin Turcotte Meteorologist Meridian Environmental Technology.

Evaluation of a Challenging Warm Season QPF month at HPC: June 2009 Brendon Rubin-Oster Richard Otto (with contributions from Mike Bodner, Keith Brill,

Precipitation Types Important for Real Time Input and Forecasting

Anthony DeAngelis. Abstract Estimation of precipitation provides useful climatological data for researchers; as well as invaluable guidance for forecasters.

Mississippi River Tri-Agency Meeting National Weather Service 1 COE/NWS/USGS Tri-Agency Meeting Mississippi River Basin AHPS UPDATE COE/NWS/USGS Tri-Agency.

Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) Dan Petersen HPC Forecast Operations Branch.

National Weather Service Products on the Internet Erik Heden Meteorologist NWS Weather Forecast Office Binghamton, NY Patti Wnek Service Coordination Hydrologist.

Flash Flood Forecasting on a Tropical Small Island towards Disaster Preparedness – Trinidad Glendell De Souza Science & Technology Officer Caribbean Meteorological.

INTELLIGENT USE OF THE AVN/MRF 2000 Wes Junker HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD ADDRESS: Presented.

Numerical Weather Prediction and EPS Products: Severe Weather and Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Hamza Kabelwa Contributions from Richard H. Grumm.

Chapter 25 cover Flood severe weather facts Duration and Intensity Factors pg 476 (4 th ed.)

METR March Review Hydrostatic balance Ideal gas law p = ρ R d T v, ρ = p / R d T v Take layer average virtual temperature, R and g as constants.

1 Heavy/Intense Precipitation Precipitation Intensity Precipitation Efficiency Precipitation Duration The precipitation part to the flood/flash flood problem.

The Similar Soundings Technique For Incorporating Pattern Recognition Into The Forecast Process at WFO BGM Mike Evans Ron Murphy.

Using Standardized Anomaly Data in Operational Forecasting Mike Bodner NCEP/HPC Development Training Branch September 2011.

Atmospheric Moisture. State Changes of Water Humidity Adiabatic Cooling What Makes Air Rise? Atmospheric Stability.

Ensemble variability in rainfall forecasts of Hurricane Irene (2011) Molly Smith, Ryan Torn, Kristen Corbosiero, and Philip Pegion NWS Focal Points: Steve.

Forecasting Winter Precipitation

The Record South Carolina Rainfall Event of 3-5 October 2015: NCEP Forecast Suite Success story John LaCorte Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National.

Probabilistic Forecasts of Extreme Precipitation Events for the U.S. Hazards Assessment Kenneth Pelman 32 nd Climate Diagnostics Workshop Tallahassee,

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner NOAA Hydrometeorological TestBed at the NCEP Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) Faye.

NOAA/NWS Digital Services 1 NWS Forecast Evolution and Delivery in a Digital Era Glenn Austin Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services David Ruth.

1 Nowcasting Flash Floods and Heavy Precipitation --- A Satellite Perspective Roderick A. Scofield, Ph. D.

Models: General Characteristics Much better in Short Term –Doubling of error about every 2.5 days.

An Overview of HPC Winter Weather Guidance for Three Warning Criteria Snowfall Events That Occurred During the Winter Season. A Review of the.

AN INDEX FOR ANTICIPATING EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION WITH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS Alzina Foscato and Patrick Market Dept. of Soil, Environmental & Atmospheric.

Air and the Sun  For the most part, the Sun’s energy never actually reaches the Earth but is lost in space.  The greenhouse effect is when the atmosphere.

Air Masses and ITCZ. Topic 4: Air Masses and ITCZ Global wind circulation and ocean currents are important in determining climate patterns. These are.

Storms and the Movement of Air Textbook pages

11 Short-Range QPF for Flash Flood Prediction and Small Basin Forecasts Prediction Forecasts David Kitzmiller, Yu Zhang, Wanru Wu, Shaorong Wu, Feng Ding.

Michael L. Jurewicz, Sr. NOAA/NWS, Binghamton, NY ER Flash Flood Workshop, Wilkes-Barre, PA June 3, 2010.

Colorado Flood. Where it rained When it rained.

Heavy Rain Climatology of Upper Michigan Jonathan Banitt National Weather Service Marquette MI.

Atmospheric Moisture (Text Pg 84-92)

13-14 December 2016 heavy rain and severe weather event in the northwest By: Zubear Said.

Air Masses and Fronts.

Do Now Take out your Atmosphere packets and continue working on the Layers of the Atmosphere activity. Read the directions carefully and answer all of.

Warm Season Flash Flood Detection Performance at WFO Binghamton

Water in liquid, solid & gaseous states is constantly being recycled through the water cycle. The water cycle is the continuous movement of water from.

Air Masses and Weather.

Air masses form over large land or water masses. Air Mass

Air Masses and Weather.

Air Masses and Weather.

Presentation transcript:

National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property Precipitation Potential Placement ER Flash Flood Workshop Jeff Myers/Jim Noel NOAA/NWS/OHRFC June 2-4, 2010

National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property Precipitation Potential Placement History  NESDIS began using it to correct rainfall estimates in 1981 (Scofield)  OHRFC implemented it in Originally called precipitation efficiency.  NWA Digest Article Published in  Added to NWS AWIPS Supplemental parameters in 2008  Added to SPC meso-analysis page in  Ongoing research into combining moisture, instability and lift.

National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property Precipitation Potential Placement Parameter 1.Lower Tropospheric Relative Humidity ( mb) 2.Precipitable Water (PW) 1.Lower Tropospheric Relative Humidity ( mb) 2.Precipitable Water (PW) RH ( mb) x PW

National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property Precipitation Potential Placement Original Research Percent occurrence of measurable rainfall for three different temperature environments

National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property Precipitation Potential Placement Rules of Thumb for Onset of Rainfall  Onset for measurable rainfall is typically 0.3” to 0.6” during a cool environment (<37F)  Onset for measurable rainfall is typically 0.5” to 0.8” for a transitional temperature environment (37F – 69F)  Onset for measurable rainfall is typically 0.8” to 1.3” for a warm temperature environment (>=70F)

National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property Precipitation Potential Placement Rules of Thumb for Axis of Heaviest Rainfall  Heaviest rainfall usually occurs along and to the left of the heaviest PPP axis in cold air advection scenarios.  Along and to the right of PPP axis in stationary and warm frontal set-ups. (Nashville example)

National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property PE Mean RHPW PPP PPP improves over either PW or Mean RH Precipitation Potential Placement

National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property PPP can be converted to a 6-hour POP to assist forecasters based on the research data Precipitation Potential Placement PWMean RH PPP to POP

National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property PPP helps to focus on placing the QPF better versus other broad spectrum parameters Precipitation Potential Placement PWMean RH PPP to POP

National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property PE PW PPP Eta QPF Precipitation Potential Placement PPP helps to focus on placing the QPF better than model QPF in many cases

National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property 24-hr cumulative GFS PPP24-hr MPE Totals 24-hr cumulative PPP compared better with observed rainfall versus 24-hr GFS QPF from Sep 20-21, 2009 flood event in GA No ensemble QPF members handled this event Precipitation Potential Placement

National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property 24-hr cumulative GFS PPP24-hr cumulative GFS QPF 24-hr cumulative PPP compared better with observed rainfall versus 24-hr GFS QPF from Oct. 5, 2006 flood event in Ohio Precipitation Potential Placement

National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property 24-hr cumulative GFS PPP24-hr observed rainfall 24-hr cumulative PPP compared better with observed rainfall versus 24-hr GFS QPF from Oct. 5, 2006 flood event in Ohio Precipitation Potential Placement

National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property Historic Nashville Flooding Event 72 Hour PPP Forecast vs. Actual Rainfall Precipitation Potential Placement

National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property Historic Nashville Flooding Event 72 Hour GFS QPF vs. Actual Rainfall Precipitation Potential Placement

National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property Historic Nashville Flooding Event 72 Hour Moisture Transport vs. Actual Rainfall Precipitation Potential Placement

National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property NGM MOS Official NDFD Grid GFS MOS PE to POPs 16 Z22 Z Precipitation Potential Placement PPP can help with placement of rainfall

National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property Precipitation Potential Placement PPP is designed to improve placement of rainfall but there is also a relationship to rainfall amounts

National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property SPC added PPP to their real-time meso-analysis page in Precipitation Potential Placement

National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property PPP Summary  PPP is not a silver bullet, however:  It is a good tool to assist forecasters in better placing QPF  It helps forecasters visualize rainfall placement and orientation with synoptic, MCS and tropical events  It should be used with other diagnostic and heavy rain forecasting tools  It is not designed to replace our movement into the ensemble and probabilistic world which is and will happen  It can assist modelers in identifying weaknesses in current QPF techniques  It does a good job in heavy rain events and convective events, but not isolated events  It does a decent job in MCS events

National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property  Current research is focusing on combining of the big three: moisture, instability and lift (maximizing PPP)  Current research shows moisture and lift dominate of the three  By combining the three, placement improves further  Preliminary results of 44 events  GFS PPP POD 0.61 and FAR 0.55 for heavy rain occurring in the max bulleyes  GFS PPP POD 0.98 FAR 0.14 for maximum rain axis occurring in the maximum bulleyes or along the gradient around bulls-eye  MM5 PPP POD 0.62 and FAR 0.45 for heavy rain occurring in the max bulleyes  MM5 PPP POD 0.97 FAR 0.25 for maximum rain axis occurring in the maximum bulleyes or along the gradient around bulls- eye Precipitation Potential Placement Research

National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property Example of maximizing PPP using low level convergence and PPP for MCS moving from MSP to DTW Precipitation Potential Placement Research

National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property More information: Look for NWA Digest Publication Volume 26 Numbers 3,4 Questions or Suggestions: or More information: Look for NWA Digest Publication Volume 26 Numbers 3,4 Questions or Suggestions: or Precipitation Potential Placement