UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 Trends in International Migration George Groenewold, NiDi 1. Concepts and Definitions 2. Data sources and their shortcomings 3. Measurement of migration: Stocks and Flows 4. Trends in International Migration in the World and Europe

Demographic Balance Equation P(t+1)= P(t)+Births-Deaths+(Immigrants-Emigrants), or, P(t+1)= P(t)+Natural Increase+Net Migration 1. Concepts and Definitions

Immigrant: someone living in a country other than where he/she was born Emigrant: someone leaving his/her country of birth to go and live in another country In-migrant: someone living in another place than where he/she was born (but within the same country) Out-migrant: someone leaving his/her place of birth to go and live in another place (but within the same country) Internal migration International migration

Net migration Difference between the number of immigrants (or in-migrants) and the number of emigrants (or out-migrants) If net migration is positive, there are more immigrants than emigrants A negative net migration implies that more people are leaving than arriving Migration rates and ratios Out-migration (emigration) rate: percentage of population from place x that now lives elsewhere In-migration (immigration) ratio: population living in place x, but born elsewhere, as a percentage of the total population living in place x Depending on research question, denominator may differ so that indicator may be either a rate or ratio

Recent migrant: someone whose place of residence at the time of the census differs from that 1, 5 years ago Lifetime migrant: someone who at the time of the census lives away from his/her place of birth Multiple migrant: someone whose place of residence is different at all three times: at birth, X-years ago, and at the census Return migrant: someone who, at the time of the census, was living in the same place as at birth, but who was living in another place X-years ago

Refugee: A refugee is a person who ‘owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group, or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality, and is unable to or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country…’ (The 1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees) But….also persons granted refugee status by UNHCR, UN Relief and Welfare Agency (UNRWA), 1969 OAU Convention on African Refugees Internally displaced person (IDP): Internally displaced persons are persons or groups of persons who have been forced or obliged to flee or to leave their homes or places of habitual residence, in particular as a result of or in order to avoid the effects of armed conflict, situations of generalized violence, violations of human rights or natural or human-inflicted disasters, and who have not crossed an internationally recognized state border

2. Data sources and their shortcomings Potential data sources for migration statistics: Population censuses and population registers Border statistics Admission and stay registers for foreigners, including refugees and asylum-seekers Work permit statistics General purpose surveys (GPS) Specialised migration surveys Typical shortcomings: Completeness, definitions (comparability), quality Limited depth and breadth of data Data on situation of migrants prior to migration lacking Data of relevant comparison groups lacking

Table 1: Number and distribution over time of using the census to determine the international migrant stock

3. Measurement of Migraton: Stocks, Flows, Trends Stocks: who is a migrant? According to Place of Birth (POB)? - life time migrants (legal+illegal residence status) - no time reference, no policy handle According to Citizenship criterion? -legal residence status -indicator with policy handle -multiple citizenship Number of migrants according to citizenship usually differs considerably from migrants according to POB Size and composition characteristics for monitoring social and economic integration

Table 2. Distribution of countries and areas according to the type of data used to identify stocks of international migrants

Africa Asia Europe L.Am. N.Am Oceania Figure 1. Type of data used to estimate migration by region Imputed Citizensh. Birthpl.

Flows (cross-tabulations) - POR by POB -life time migration moves only -underestimation of total migration moves (intermediate destinations not recorded) -not time-specific - POR by POB by Duration of Residence -migration cohorts: life time in-migrants by time of last arrival - migration and development analysis - POR by POR 1 or 5 years ago -focus on recent arrivals -UN recommends 5 years ago -recall problem with fixed reference date

4. Trends in International Migration in the World and Europe Suggested reference: International Organization for Migration (IOM) and UN World Migration Report Geneva.

Figure 2. Growth of migrant stocks in less developed and more developed countries

Table 3.Estimates of (A) numbers of migrants (B) proportional distribution (C) proportion of female migrants in 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000

Table 3. (continued)

Feminisation of migration –Increasing share of women in migration (46%) –Increasingly as wage earner’s instead of accompanying migrants (or for reason of family reunification/marriage) Vulnerability –Double vulnerability: (1) as migrant, (2) as a woman –Residence dependent on ‘primary migrant’ –Trafficking

Table 4.World Population, International Migrants (stocks) and Refugees, Worker Remittances (Source: UN Population Division, 2002)

Table 5. Foreign citizens, workers, and foreign born in OECD countries in 1990 and 2001

Table 6.Origin: countries with largest number of refugees (thousands, year 2000)

Table 7. Destination: asylum countries with largest number of refugees (thousands, year 2000)

Figure 3. Refugee populations in region of asylum,

Figure 4. A brief history of international migration flows Source:

Table 8. Net migration flows to European Union in 2000

Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and Common Wealth of Independent States (CIS) 1989, 9 independent countries 1997, 27 independent countries (over 550 million people) Between : Fewer than expected moved out of region (2.5 million) Over 9 million moved within or between new States Voluntary (repatriants) and forced movements (refugees and internally displaced persons (IDP) By 1997, 4.7 million repatriants in CIS CEE/CIS increasingly transit-zones of international migrants and refugees from Asia and Africa Problem: collection, compilation and dissemination of good quality migration data and statistics

Total world population: 6 billion International migrants 1 :175 million (2.9% of world population) Refugees:12 million IDPs:6.4 million 1) Living outside country of birth Source: UN Statistics Division To conclude, some key figures for year 2000