Introduction to the species indicators; data, modelling approaches, and trends. Christine Holleran 4 June 2014

Introduction Birds of the wider countryside and at sea – Farmland birds – Woodland birds – Wetland birds – Seabirds – Wintering Waterbirds 2 4 June 2014

Introduction Insects of the wider countryside (butterflies) – Semi-natural habitat specialists – Species of the wider countryside Mammals of the wider countryside (bats) 3 4 June 2014

Data Birds – Compiled in conjunction with RSPB, BTO and JNCC – Common birds census, breeding bird survey, waterways breeding bird survey, wetland bird survey, goose and swan monitoring programme, seabird monitoring programme, seabird census data. Butterflies – Compiled by Butterfly Conservation and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology – UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme transect sites, from this year to be combined with Wider Countryside Butterfly Survey sites. 4 4 June 2014

Data Bats – Compiled by the Bat Conservation Trust – National Bat Monitoring Programme Birds, butterflies, bats - all updated annually. 5 4 June 2014

Modelling approaches Amalgamating –Geometric mean of individual indices –Less influenced by outliers Smoothing –To reduce short term peaks and troughs –General Additive Models, Structural Time Series Analysis Measure of uncertainty –Confidence intervals: bootstrapping; time series analysis 6 4 June 2014

Trends Birds 7 4 June 2014

Trends Butterflies 8 4 June 2014

Trends Bats 9 4 June 2014

Fit for purpose? Relevance Quality of data and analysis Transparency of confidence Accessibility ?????????? 10 4 June 2014