Analysis of The Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act (S. 2191) Using The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) A Report by the American Council for Capital.

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Presentation transcript:

Analysis of The Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act (S. 2191) Using The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) A Report by the American Council for Capital Formation and the National Association of Manufacturers Analysis Conducted by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) A Report by the American Council for Capital Formation and the National Association of Manufacturers Analysis Conducted by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC)

Macroeconomic Impact of Lieberman-Warner Bill: Loss in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Compared to Baseline Low Cost Case High Cost Case Percent Loss in GDP Compared to Baseline 0.8%0.8%2.6%1.6%1.1%2.7%

Macroeconomic Impact of Lieberman-Warner Bill: Employment

Macroeconomic Impact of Lieberman-Warner Bill: Average Household Income (2007$)

Macroeconomic Impact of Lieberman-Warner Bill: Rise in Retail Gasoline Prices (2007$/Gallon) Compared to Baseline High Cost Rise: $1.46/Gallon Low Cost Rise: $0.43/Gallon

Macroeconomic Impact of Lieberman-Warner Bill: Rise in Electricity Prices to Residential Sector (2007 cents/kilowatthour) High Cost Rise: 3.2 Cents Low Cost Rise: 2.7 cents

Macroeconomic Impact of Lieberman-Warner Bill: Rise in Electricity Prices to Industrial Sector (2007 cents/kilowatthour) High Cost Rise: 3.2 Cents Low Cost Rise: 2.7 cents

Macroeconomic Impact of Lieberman-Warner Bill: Natural Gas Price to Industrial Sector (2007$/Mcf) High Cost Natural Gas Price Increase: $4.1/Mcf Low Cost Natural Gas Price Increase: $2.96/Mcf

Macroeconomic Impact of Lieberman-Warner Bill: Carbon Allowance Price (2007$/Ton CO2) High Cost: $64/Ton CO2 Low Cost: $55/Ton CO2 High Cost: $271/Ton CO2 Low Cost: $228/Ton CO2

Macroeconomic Impact of Lieberman-Warner Bill: Percentage Decline in Total Industrial Value of Shipments in Manufacturing Sector

Assumptions Used in Modeling: Technology Build Constraints (2030 Build Limits) High Cost Scenario Low Cost Scenario Nuclear10 GW25 GW IGCC w Sequestration25 GW50 GW BiomassMax 3 GW/YearMax 5 GW/Year WindMax 3 GW/YearMax 5 GW/Year NGCC w Sequestration25 GW50 GW

Assumptions Used in Modeling: Technology Total Capital Requirement (2008$/kW) High Cost Scenario Low Cost Scenario Nuclear3,410 IGCC2,640 NGCC1,100 Supercritical PC2,200 IGCC w SEQ3,696 NGCC w SEQ2,090 Wind-Onshore2,000 Wind-Offshore3,800 Biomass3,968

Assumptions Used in Modeling: Other Specifications High Cost Scenario Low Cost Scenario Offsets 15-20% Greater than 20% Oil Price Profile AEO2007 High Profile Side Case AEO2008 Ref Price Profile Natural Gas Prices Not Constrained Cellulosic Ethanol With HR.6 – Not Constrained With HR.6 – Not Constrained Banking No Banking HR.6 (Key items that could be modeled) Yes Allowance Prices Not Constrained