1 East Asia Science and Security Project: Status, Planning, and Outlook David F. von Hippel and Peter Hayes Nautilus Institute Prepared for the East Asia Science and Security Project Meeting September 23-24, 2010 Tsinghua University, Beijing, PRC

EASS 2010, Beijing 2 von Hippel/Hayes 9/2010 East Asia Science and Security Future Work: Contents Introduction to Proposed Research Plan for Ideas for Research Beyond Early 2011 Funding Possibilities for EASS Beyond 2011 Connections of EASS with Other Initiatives

EASS 2010, Beijing 3 von Hippel/Hayes 9/2010 East Asia Science and Security Future Work: Plan For (essentially, now through Feb 2011), EASS emphasis is on the intersection between climate policy and nuclear power, meaning  Overall, the EASS project will work this year to address topics such as the potential contribution of nuclear energy in East Asia and the Pacific to climate change mitigation  Continue and deepen work on nuclear fuel cycle cooperation analysis (country and regional)  Continue and deepen work at the country level on “National Alternative” pathways that model climate mitigation policies, including, for example, energy efficiency and renewable energy as well as different nuclear paths

EASS 2010, Beijing 4 von Hippel/Hayes 9/2010 East Asia Science and Security Future Work: Plan Additional work to continue/begin in  Continue and deepen work on “Regional Alternative” pathways at both country and regional level  Update datasets to most recent “base year”, and fill out datasets to allow for costing and environmental emissions analysis of scenarios that are as complete as possible  With information from EASS countries if available, begin to look at the adaptation of nuclear power systems to changing climates, the interaction of nuclear power support and investments with other approaches to/investments in climate change mitigation, investments in climate change adaptation, exposure to climate change impacts and risks of different types (including energy security, physical, and social risks) related to power system choices

EASS 2010, Beijing 5 von Hippel/Hayes 9/2010 East Asia Science and Security Future Work Beyond Early 2011 Work outlined for is ambitious, and can easily be continued beyond early 2011 by using our unique EASS network, tools, and methods to look in more detail at different approaches to climate change mitigation AND climate change adaptation in the region, and how those candidate approaches compare with respect to the full suite of energy security criteria identified under AES/EASS  Nuclear, non-nuclear, individual, and regional options  Evaluate costs, emissions, risks, and other impacts of each option (path, LEAP “scenario”) relative to each other

EASS 2010, Beijing 6 von Hippel/Hayes 9/2010 Funding Possibilities for EASS Beyond Early 2011 At present we are still looking for funding for the EASS project for 2011 and beyond  Challenges due to changes in priorities by our US Dept of Energy funder, and uncertain priorities of the MacArthur Foundation program that we have had funding from in the past due to staff turnover  Ideas from EASS teams? Other foundations or government grants we could apply to? Multilateral agencies with programs in the energy security areas?