The ESPON Scientific Platform Data, tools and scientific innovation Moritz Lennert - IGEAT - ULB

Overview Expressionism or realism: Using regional data –The vast treasures of the ESPON Database –Limits to regional data: MAUP and disrupted time series –Possible solution for the future: Long-Term Database and cartographic techniques –From data to messages: policy indicators Do It Yourself: ESPON tools for everyone –ESPON DB and Data Navigator –WebGIS –HyperAtlas Experiments in vitro: Modelling techniques for territorial research –Models to analyse the current situation –Models to simulate and forecast the future –A general model for territorial impact assessment Looking ahead: Prospective thinking Friendly discussions: Scientific peer review in ESPON ?

Expressionism or realism: Using regional data The vast treasures of the ESPON Database covers 29 countries29 countries !!!

Expressionism or realism: Using regional data Limits to regional data: Disrupted time series and MAUP 2) Modifiable Area Unit Problem: Results of spatial analyses depend on definition of studied units An illustration of MAUP: the variation of Urban-Rural Typology at different levels of territorial aggregation (NUTS 2 and NUTS 3) (Project Proposals: new hierarchies of territorial division for research and strategic policy making development of interactive and dynamic cartographic methods development of multiscalar methods of analysis 1) Time series interrupted by change in data and region definitions

Expressionism or realism: Using regional data Possible solution for the future I: Long-Term Database Hierarchy of geographic entities, names Definitions of basic stock indicators (population, area, GDP) Definitions and formulas of complex indicators (pop. density, GDP/cap) The actual data Collection of estimation methods for missing data Expert system for choice of estimation method

Expressionism or realism: Using regional data Possible solution for the future II: Innovative cartography

Expressionism or realism: Using regional data From data to messages: policy indicators

Do It Yourself: ESPON tools for everyone ESPON DB and Data Navigator

Do It Yourself: ESPON tools for everyone HyperAtlas and WebGIS ESPON WebGis: Mapping the ESPON database online ESPON HyperAtlas: Innovative multiscalar cartography on your desktop

Experiments in vitro: Modelling techniques for territorial research Models to analyse the state of the system Mostly pre-existing models, adapted to the specific needs of ESPON research Most models concern transport theme: accessibility, flows, pollution, infrastructures, etc Provide complex indicators Examples: ICON index, various accessibility measures, logistic model of IT diffusal, etc. Used for the analysis of the situation of the modelled system in the present or past

Experiments in vitro: Modelling techniques for territorial research Models to simulate and forecast the future deal with the future, based on different assumptions => forecast and impact assessment MAcro-economic, Sectoral, Social and Territorial (MASST) model Existing models used: SASI, CGEurope, STIMA, CAPRI, etc Some ESPON babies: Know Trans-European Networks (KTEN/K10) Demographic Cohort-Survial model RESSET (accessibility and economic development)

Experiments in vitro: Modelling techniques for territorial research A general model for territorial impact assessment Multicriteria Model with two main layers: 1) General assessment GA = Σc θc. PIMc 2) Territorial assessment TIMr = Σc θc. Sr,c. (PIMc. PIr ). Par r = region Sr,c = sensitivity of region r to criterion c PI = policy intensity PA = policy applicability c = criterion θc = weight PIM = general impact

Looking ahead: Prospective thinking Policy making = future-oriented => Applied scientific results have to respond to this need Territorial development = very long-term Much of what will happen is out of reach for « classical » (quantitative) scientific methods ESPON provides prospective thinking in the form of the scenarios Thinking beyond the verifiable and imagining the possible in scientifically informed creative prospective research Permanent process depending on policy goals and general evolutions

Friendly discussions: Scientific peer review in ESPON ? If we want evidenced-based policy, we need solid evidence Knowledge grows through controversial discussion ESPON seminars always very polite:

Friendly discussions: Scientific peer review in ESPON ? Can be a frustrating experience for all sides We just had the first experience of « peer review » in ESPON Sometimes it feels like this:

Friendly discussions: Scientific peer review in ESPON ? But it advances everyone's knowledge Have a great seminar ! So, let's dare some more controversy: