Measurement without Numbers #1. Measurement is an observation that reduces an uncertainty expressed as a quantity.

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Presentation transcript:

Measurement without Numbers #1

Measurement is an observation that reduces an uncertainty expressed as a quantity.

Measurement As a verb, measurement is making such observations.

BUT It is not necessary to measure everything with numbers….

In fact, some things are best not measured with numbers…

Some things can best be observed…. Gaining information from Observation

But, if we are going to do use observation, we need to be careful, observation is not always as easy as it seems.

Some things disappear in plain sight. Other things are misperceived. And, some are subliminal! f-sentence.html

A new study found that nearly 1 in 4 overweight American women believes her body weight is normal, while conversely, around 1 in 6 normal weight women regards herself as overweight.

But… If a number must be given….

Observation: They almost always are in the form of counts (frequency).

Observation: Rule: “ Always believe what a person does before you believe what he or she says.”

Observation: Can be of two kind: Overt: Open to view…..

Observation: Can be of two kind: Overt: Subject open to view….. Or interruption…..

Observation: Can be of two kind: Non-overt: Subjects do not know they are being observed…. or are not interrupted…

Observation: Advantages 1. Can be more accurate.

Observation: 1.Can be more accurate. 2. May be easier.

Observation: 1.Can be more accurate. 2. May be easier. 3. May be faster.

Observation: 1.Can be more accurate. 2. May be easier. 3. May be faster. 4. Some people can’t verbalize.

Observation: 1.Can be more accurate. 2. May be easier. 3. May be faster. 4. Some people can’t verbalize. 5. Information not subject to memory errors.

Observation: 1.Can be more accurate. 2. May be easier. 3. May be faster. 4. Some people can’t verbalize. 5. Information not subject to memory errors. 6. What do people actually do?

Observation: 6. What do people actually do? A driver!?

Observation: 1.Can be more accurate. 2. May be easier. 3. May be faster. 4. Some people can’t verbalize. 5. Information no subject to memory errors. 6. What do people actually do? 7. Non-reactive.

Observation: 1.Can be more accurate. 2. May be easier. 3. May be faster. 4. Some people can’t verbalize. 5. Information no subject to memory errors. 6. What do people actually do? 7. Non-reactive. What does this mean?

Observation: 7. Non-reactive. Suppose that you asked someone what their opinion was…..

Observation: 7. Non-reactive. Suppose that you asked someone what their opinion was….. You looked, but there was no opinion…..

Observation: 7. Non-reactive. But the person is smart and thinks they should have an opinion….

Observation: 7. Non-reactive. But the person is smart and thinks they should have an opinion…. So they create one based on what they have heard seen, or read.

Observation: 7. Non-reactive. That now becomes the person’s opinion!! The opinion was created because an opinion was asked for. That is a REACTIVE measure.

Observation: 7. Are Non-reactive.

Question: Who is more likely to be influenced by propaganda?

The professor?

Or, the peasant?

Types of observations:

1. Audits

Types of observations: 1.Audits Physical records

Types of observations: 1.Audits Physical records Sales audits

Types of observations: 1.Audits Physical records Sales audits Pantry audits

Types of observations: 1.Audits Physical records Coupon redemption Sales audits Pantry audits

Types of observations: 1. Audits 2. Trace Analysis Physical traces of past behavior…

Types of observations: 1. Audits Erosion 2. Trace Analysis Physical traces of past behavior…

Types of observations: 1. Audits Accretion 2. Trace Analysis Physical traces of past behavior…

Types of observations: 1. Audits 2. Trace Analysis Physical traces of past behavior… Erosion Accretion Magazine collection

Types of observations: 1. Audits 2. Trace Analysis Physical traces of past behavior… Erosion Accretion Magazine collection Garbage research

Why garbage research?

Types of observations: 1. Audits 2. Trace Analysis 3. Content Analysis Look at the content of communications.

Types of observations: 1. Audits 2. Trace Analysis 3. Content Analysis Look at the content of communications and advertisements.

It is possible to understand the marketing strategy of a company by studying its ads. De-construction

Gender roles can be studied by inspecting the content of ads.

Changes in culture and politics can be studied.

Types of observations: 1. Audits 2. Trace Analysis 3. Content Analysis Graphology

Types of observations: 1. Audits 2. Trace Analysis 3. Content Analysis Graphology License Plates, etc.

Where do gamblers come from?

Types of observations: 1. Audits 2. Trace Analysis 3. Content Analysis 4. Mechanical Observation

Types of observations: 1. Audits 2. Trace Analysis 3. Content Analysis 4. Mechanical Observation Stand-alone devices

Types of observations: 4. Mechanical Observation Facilitating devices

Types of observations: 4. Mechanical Observation Facilitating devices Tachistoscopes

Types of observations: 4. Mechanical Observation Facilitating devices Galvanometers

Types of observations: 4. Mechanical Observation Facilitating devices Eye Cameras

Types of observations: 4. Mechanical Observation Facilitating devices Timers (RT)

Types of observations: 4. Mechanical Observation Voice-Pitch analysis

This raises an interesting issue!

An instruments is accurate 65% of the time in identifying a lie.

Does this mean that it is a good instrument? The company markets the instrument by reporting how many lies it detects… Why is this deceptive advertising?

A person gets 40 messages, 20 are true and 20 are false. The instrument correctly identifies 13 of the false as false, and 7 false as true. If the instrument was 100% accurate in finding true to be true, it would now identify 27 as true when only 20 were true (74%).

Further, suppose a detector said that every statement was a lie….. What percent of lies would it detect?

Types of observations: 4. Mechanical Observation Facilitating devices Timers (RT) Voice-Pitch analysis Brain-wave research

Types of observations: 4. Mechanical Observation Facilitating devices Timers (RT) Voice-Pitch analysis Brain-wave research CAT, fMRI Scans (and others)

Problems with observation: 1.Need high frequency behavior, or very expensive behavior

Problems with observation: 1. Need high frequency behavior 2. It may be biased… must observe the observers

Problems with observation: 1. Need high frequency behavior 2. It may be biased… must observe the observers 3. Maybe unethical or illegal.

Problems with observation: 1. Need high frequency behavior 2. It may be biased… must observe the observers 3. Maybe unethical or illegal. 4. Basic problem!!

Problems with observation: 1. Need high frequency behavior 2. It may be biased… must observe the observers 3. Maybe unethical or illegal. 4. Basic problem!! Observation never tells you WHY.