Global Warming and Infectious Diseases Joseph witzke Climatology November 2010 Joseph witzke Climatology November 2010

So What? Diseases Kill people and animals There may be a correlation between global warming and spread of infectious diseases So if you believe that the earth is going to continue to warm at an alarming rate you better get your vaccinations because the diseases may get you before the heat does! But warming may not be the only factor... Diseases Kill people and animals There may be a correlation between global warming and spread of infectious diseases So if you believe that the earth is going to continue to warm at an alarming rate you better get your vaccinations because the diseases may get you before the heat does! But warming may not be the only factor...

Some Questions Will a rise in global temperatures increase the intensity and frequency of infectious diseases? Does the geographic range of these diseases simply increase? Or will there just be a shift in the Regions of these diseases? What are other factors contributing to the spread of these diseases? Will a rise in global temperatures increase the intensity and frequency of infectious diseases? Does the geographic range of these diseases simply increase? Or will there just be a shift in the Regions of these diseases? What are other factors contributing to the spread of these diseases?

Range of Diseases Many are Restricted to or more prevalent in tropical and subtropical zones More prevalent at lower latitudes, lower altitudes and warmer temperatures Warmer conditions promote vectors for disease spread Many are Restricted to or more prevalent in tropical and subtropical zones More prevalent at lower latitudes, lower altitudes and warmer temperatures Warmer conditions promote vectors for disease spread

Range Shifting Vs. Expanding In theory parasites should already be in their optimum ranges If temperatures increase, warming new areas, then the parasites should be able to move to new territories But the temperature could also become too hot in some areas The ranges would shift instead of expanding Historical ranges included much of Europe and North America where today malaria is practically absent due to human intervention In theory parasites should already be in their optimum ranges If temperatures increase, warming new areas, then the parasites should be able to move to new territories But the temperature could also become too hot in some areas The ranges would shift instead of expanding Historical ranges included much of Europe and North America where today malaria is practically absent due to human intervention

The Other Factors Precipitation Humidity Ecological Sociological Economic Evolutionary Precipitation Humidity Ecological Sociological Economic Evolutionary “Techniques to eradicate malaria have been available for decades. It is a disease of poverty, not a disease of climate change.” -Plimer “Techniques to eradicate malaria have been available for decades. It is a disease of poverty, not a disease of climate change.” -Plimer

Mosquitoes Diseases carried by mosquitoes are of most concern Transfer diseases amongst humans and animals Are very sensitive to the climate they inhabit Go to the cold to get away!! Diseases carried by mosquitoes are of most concern Transfer diseases amongst humans and animals Are very sensitive to the climate they inhabit Go to the cold to get away!!

So Why the Mosquito? Mosquitoes thrive in the heat, Bitting more frequently and reproducing faster Still water caused by floods and droughts are an excellent breeding ground for mosquitoes Winter freezing kills eggs, larvae and adults Cold limits mosquitoes to seasons or areas where temperatures stay above certain minimums Warmer temperatures may enable them to transfer more diseases for a longer period of time Mosquitoes thrive in the heat, Bitting more frequently and reproducing faster Still water caused by floods and droughts are an excellent breeding ground for mosquitoes Winter freezing kills eggs, larvae and adults Cold limits mosquitoes to seasons or areas where temperatures stay above certain minimums Warmer temperatures may enable them to transfer more diseases for a longer period of time

Eww c’mon More Mosquitoes? They carry malaria, dengue fever, yellow fever and encephalitis Pathogens inside the mosquito mature faster in the heat, increasing the chance of the disease being spread since mosquitoes live only several weeks. Sustained outbreaks of malaria only where temperatures routinely exceed 60 degrees F Yellow and Dengue fever only where temperatures rarely fall below 50 degrees F They carry malaria, dengue fever, yellow fever and encephalitis Pathogens inside the mosquito mature faster in the heat, increasing the chance of the disease being spread since mosquitoes live only several weeks. Sustained outbreaks of malaria only where temperatures routinely exceed 60 degrees F Yellow and Dengue fever only where temperatures rarely fall below 50 degrees F

What Diseases? Malaria Encephalitis West Nile Virus Dengue fever Snail Fever Yellow Fever and other insect, rodent and water carried diseases Malaria Encephalitis West Nile Virus Dengue fever Snail Fever Yellow Fever and other insect, rodent and water carried diseases

Malaria 3.3 billion people, half of the world’s population, are at risk of malaria!

It’s the Heat! NO IT’S THE MALARIA! The most popular disease mentioned when it comes to the global warming debate 250 million cases every year, nearly 1 million deaths every year An average of 1500 cases in the United States reported every year Between 1957 and 2009, in the United States, 63 outbreaks of locally transmitted mosquito-borne malaria have occurred 5th leading cause of death from infectious diseases worldwide (after respiratory infections, HIV/AIDS, diarrheal diseases, and tuberculosis). The most popular disease mentioned when it comes to the global warming debate 250 million cases every year, nearly 1 million deaths every year An average of 1500 cases in the United States reported every year Between 1957 and 2009, in the United States, 63 outbreaks of locally transmitted mosquito-borne malaria have occurred 5th leading cause of death from infectious diseases worldwide (after respiratory infections, HIV/AIDS, diarrheal diseases, and tuberculosis).

Poor Countries are most Vulnerable In Africa: 89% of the malaria deaths worldwide occur here One in five childhood deaths are due to malaria An African child may average between 1 and 6 episodes of malaria fever each year 10,000 pregnant women die 200,000 infant deaths Every 30 seconds a child dies from the disease In Africa: 89% of the malaria deaths worldwide occur here One in five childhood deaths are due to malaria An African child may average between 1 and 6 episodes of malaria fever each year 10,000 pregnant women die 200,000 infant deaths Every 30 seconds a child dies from the disease

What Exactly? Malaria or a disease resembling malaria has been noted for more than 4,000 years. From the Italian for "bad air," mal'aria has probably influenced to a great extent human populations and human history. The symptoms of malaria were described in ancient Chinese medical writings as far back as 2700 BC Malaria is a mosquito-borne disease caused by a parasite. People with malaria often experience fever, chills, and flu-like illness. Left untreated, they may develop severe complications and die. Curable disease if diagnosed, treated promptly and correctly Malaria or a disease resembling malaria has been noted for more than 4,000 years. From the Italian for "bad air," mal'aria has probably influenced to a great extent human populations and human history. The symptoms of malaria were described in ancient Chinese medical writings as far back as 2700 BC Malaria is a mosquito-borne disease caused by a parasite. People with malaria often experience fever, chills, and flu-like illness. Left untreated, they may develop severe complications and die. Curable disease if diagnosed, treated promptly and correctly

Prevent Malaria! New antimalarials replacing drugs such as chloroquine that the parasite has become resistant to Control the mosquitoes DUH! Use insect nets, spray insecticides, manage breeding habitats Malaria is basically eliminated once the per capita income reaches $3100 New antimalarials replacing drugs such as chloroquine that the parasite has become resistant to Control the mosquitoes DUH! Use insect nets, spray insecticides, manage breeding habitats Malaria is basically eliminated once the per capita income reaches $3100

Blue is decreasing, red is increasing

Dengue Fever Mosquito-borne infection found in tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world, predominantly in urban and semi-urban areas. Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is a potentially lethal complication The incidence of dengue has grown dramatically around the world in recent decades. Some 2.5 billion people – two fifths of the world's population – are now at risk from dengue. WHO currently estimates there may be 50 million dengue infections worldwide every year. Medical care treating DHF can decrease mortality rates from more than 20% to less than 1% Mosquito-borne infection found in tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world, predominantly in urban and semi-urban areas. Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is a potentially lethal complication The incidence of dengue has grown dramatically around the world in recent decades. Some 2.5 billion people – two fifths of the world's population – are now at risk from dengue. WHO currently estimates there may be 50 million dengue infections worldwide every year. Medical care treating DHF can decrease mortality rates from more than 20% to less than 1%

Not quite as widespread as malaria

West Nile Virus So far in 2010 there has been 39 deaths due to WNV in the united states First arrived in North America in 1999 Warmer temperatures, elevated humidity, and heavy precipitation increased the relative rate of human WNV infection in the United States independent of season and each others’ effects (Soverow et al. 2009). So far in 2010 there has been 39 deaths due to WNV in the united states First arrived in North America in 1999 Warmer temperatures, elevated humidity, and heavy precipitation increased the relative rate of human WNV infection in the United States independent of season and each others’ effects (Soverow et al. 2009).

Tick-borne Encephalitis Viral infectious disease involving the central nervous system that manifests as inflammation of the brain, the membrane surrounding the brain and the spinal cord. Ticks are the vector and rodents are their host TBE is not dependent on temperature, but over the last 30 years an impact of climate warming on the vertical disease distribution in Central Europe is evident. Only several thousand cases are reported annually Viral infectious disease involving the central nervous system that manifests as inflammation of the brain, the membrane surrounding the brain and the spinal cord. Ticks are the vector and rodents are their host TBE is not dependent on temperature, but over the last 30 years an impact of climate warming on the vertical disease distribution in Central Europe is evident. Only several thousand cases are reported annually

Maybe I don’t want to go for that hike after all...

Killing Corals Most coral diseases occur at higher sea water temperatures Coral Bleaching Black and White Band Diseases Coral Plague Aspergillosis 1997–1998, the world's largest bleaching event ever killed 16% of the world's reefs Most coral diseases occur at higher sea water temperatures Coral Bleaching Black and White Band Diseases Coral Plague Aspergillosis 1997–1998, the world's largest bleaching event ever killed 16% of the world's reefs

And Annihilating Amphibians An estimated 67% of the 110 or species of Atelopus, which are endemic to the American tropics, have met the same fate, and a pathogenic chytrid fungus ( Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ) is implicated. Warmer climates are more optimum for growth of this pathogen An estimated 67% of the 110 or species of Atelopus, which are endemic to the American tropics, have met the same fate, and a pathogenic chytrid fungus ( Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ) is implicated. Warmer climates are more optimum for growth of this pathogen

Discussion Global warming can be a factor in increasing distribution and incidence of infectious diseases Ranges of these diseases are more likely to shift than expand Warmer weather is mostly a more suitable environment for many parasites and the vectors Non climatic factors are more likely to determine the extent the infectious diseases spread Many of the incidences in the United States are due to traveling Questions? Global warming can be a factor in increasing distribution and incidence of infectious diseases Ranges of these diseases are more likely to shift than expand Warmer weather is mostly a more suitable environment for many parasites and the vectors Non climatic factors are more likely to determine the extent the infectious diseases spread Many of the incidences in the United States are due to traveling Questions?

Literature Cited Epstein, Paul R Is global warming harmful to health? Scientific American 283: Gething, Peter W., Smith, David L., Patil, Anand P., Tatem, Andrew J., Snow, Robert W., Hay, Simon I Climate change and the global malaria recession. Nature 465: Ostfeld, Richard s Climate change and the distribution and intensity of infectious diseases. ecology 90: Pascual, Mercedes and Menno J. Bouma Do rising temperatures matter? Ecology 90: Malaria Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. November 2010 Epstein, Paul R Is global warming harmful to health? Scientific American 283: Gething, Peter W., Smith, David L., Patil, Anand P., Tatem, Andrew J., Snow, Robert W., Hay, Simon I Climate change and the global malaria recession. Nature 465: Ostfeld, Richard s Climate change and the distribution and intensity of infectious diseases. ecology 90: Pascual, Mercedes and Menno J. Bouma Do rising temperatures matter? Ecology 90: Malaria Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. November 2010

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