Welcome Back Technical Co-Chairs Maurice Moses Ernst & Young LLP Dr. Lars Westpfahl Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer LLP.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Bursting the Bubble: Analyzing the Real Estate Market.
Advertisements

Financial Crisis of 2008 Econ Worst recession in 80 years How did it happen? How was the situation before the crisis? ‘ Great Moderation’ Stable.
THE CURRENT WORLDWIDE FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS MICHAEL D. INTRILIGATOR PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS, POLITICAL SCIENCE, AND PUBLIC POLICY, UCLA AND SENIOR.
Dr Maurice Mullard Lecture 10.  Financial crisis that started in America with sub prime mortgages  Savings glut thesis on global imbalances China Germany.
Chapter Ten Financial Crisis. Introduction From 2007 to mid-2009, global financial markets and systems have been in the grip of the worst financial crisis.
The Lending Crisis: Cause and Effect. Before the downturn: The Housing Boom  The introduction of exotic loans, adjustable rate mortgages, and relaxed.
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport U.S. Bond Market Squeezed by Credit Crisis.
USA & Global Financial Crisis. What is the Global Financial Crisis? The Global financial crisis is believed to be the largest financial crisis after the.
When Wall Street Fell: The Financial Crisis of 2008 BADM 381: Multinational Management October 14, 2008 Angela Grossi Devin Kelly Eric Slehofer Laura Beschorner.
The Great Recession Causes & Prospects
Homeowners get mortgage loans from lenders in order to buy homes. This has long been the so-called American dream. As homeowners pay off their mortgages.
CHAPTERS 1-4 REVIEW CHAPTER 3 WHAT IS MONEY? SUMMARY
Lecture 10 Thursday, October 2 Finance. Some Basic Concepts Money Investment Credit Assets and Capital gains Securities: Stocks, bonds, derivatives, etc.
Strategies for dealing with the financial crisis.
Labour’s 2015 Manifesto Consultation Process: 1.‘Conversations’ ( ) 2.‘Policy Commissions’ produce consultation papers 3.Papers to the National Policy.
Should central banks always throw rescue rafts to failing banks?
A Timeline of The Great Recession
Student Name Student ID
Financial Collapse Destruction of Wealth Collapse of Banks Falling Housing Prices Freezing Credit Markets Attributable to Credit Default Swaps?
CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS An Example. A Pension Fund Investment A Pension Fund has $1 billion to invest An option is to lend the money to a bank, investment.
Day 1 Joharah Ballroom. INSOL Dubai INSOL President Sumant Batra, Kesar Dass B. & Associates Conference Co-Chairs Dr. Nasser H. Saidi, DIFC and Hawkamah.
Market Meltdown: Global Trends and the Cyclical Turn Dr. Mark Mullins Executive Director Fraser Institute April 21, 2009.
--- US Federal Government Fiscal Deficits began to grow in During 2000s C and G increased, now it must be I and NX increasing --- Need to Rebalance.
Professor Thomas Cosimano Department of Finance. Housing Prices.
S LIDE 1.1 The Language of Financial Markets Quiz Bowl Game Board Invest in This Potent Investments Index or Exchange Earn It Who am I? Financial Markets.
THE GREAT CONTRACTION : WHO CAUSED IT & HOW DID IT HAPPEN? By : Charlie Haumesser Discussants : Ashley Hucksoll & Mikael Leveille.
Dallas Hall, Chuck Dobson, Guy Tahye & Tunde Olabiyi.
Highlighting a Few Key Ideas and Issues.  M&M: Equity = Debt  Value of firm projects matters a lot more than small differences in costs of funds  Breaks.
THE SUBPRIME CRISIS What (the Hell) Happened and Why Presented by: Ken Roberts Foster Pepper, LLP.
Brewing Up a Crash Financial crashes are like airline crashes Some happen because of a single cause Example: birds sucked into engine Example: the Twin.
THE BUSINESS CYCLE. Good news or bad news for the GDP? recessionpeakexpansion upturndepressiondownturn contractiontroughdownswing recovery slumpboom.
Causes of the Financial Crisis (PREP: Open NPR clip here and load at beginning of lecture) (PREP: Open NPR clip here and load at beginning of lecture)
24 FINANCE, SAVING, AND INVESTMENT © 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley.
Economic Bubbles How the housing market led to the Great Recession.
A Pregnant Pause Economic Prospects for the Remainder of 2008 Carl R. Tannenbaum Economic Consultant
Prepared by: Richard K. Traub Traub Lieberman Straus & Shrewsberry LLP.
Become the Executive!. Congratulations! You and your group mates are the top executives? As Uncle Ben told Spiderman, “With great power comes great responsibility….”
© 2012 Cengage Learning. Residential Mortgage Lending: Principles and Practices, 6e Chapter 5 SECONDARY MORTGAGE MARKET.
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Chapter 9 Financial Crises and the Subprime Meltdown.
back RULES  Put away all note cards and study aids. You may keep a copy of Visual 1, “ Terms of Modern Financial Markets.”  Each site will be a team.
GRAVITAS Capital Advisors, Inc. 1 The Advantage of Innovative Thinking.
The Financial Crisis of 2008 By Franz Soerensen. The Creation of the bubble (1 of 8) Prior to deregulation fewer could get mortgages (Ferguson) Lenders.
 Financial Crises:  Chapter 9  Regulation and Capture  Calomiris and Johnson.
5 October 2015 by Sigrid Brevik Wangsness.  The largest economy in the world with a major impact on the global economy  Until October 2008 an economic.
GREAT RECESSION OF GREAT RECESSION OF 2008.
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Chapter 4 Financial Crises and the Subprime Meltdown.
The Creation of a Housing Bubble. Speculative Bubbles USA Holland Economic Bubbles have existed throughout history!
The Financial Crisis and the Great Recession 14. Start with the 2001 recession and weak recovery Fed responds by cutting interest rates (FFR = 1%) Since.
 Great Recession. History  Great Depression  Further Regulation  No Speculating.
1 Bond Insurance Guarantees bond principal in case of a credit event. Effectively “swaps” the rating of the bond for that of the insurer. Purchased by.
The Global Capital Market Hill, Chapter 11. Review: Basic Economics Economists teach that the most efficient use of resources can be achieved by free.
Q. Why has Lehman Brothers collapsed. It was one of the most exposed banks to the US sub-prime mortgage market. It did not give out mortgages to ordinary.
Bernanke Statement before Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (2010) Vaughan / Economics
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education Canada. Beginning in August 2007 and running through 2008, global financial markets were in crisis. The epicentre.
Technical Co-Chair Dr. Lars Westpfahl Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer LLP.
Figure 8.3: Subprime Lending Fiasco – U.S. Housing Bubble U.S. Housing Bubble Unsustainably High House Prices Very Low Interest Rates Excessive Foreign.
24 FINANCE, SAVING, AND INVESTMENT © 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley.
20-1 The Money Supply and Banking Systems Chapter 20.
Chapter 24 What is Money?. What are the functions of money?  A medium of exchange-can be traded for what we need  Serves as a store of value-we can.
Chapter 14 Financial Crises and the Subprime Meltdown.
Lecture 10 Thursday, February 16 Finance.
Financial Crises and the Subprime Meltdown
Bond Insurance Guarantees bond principal in case of a credit event.
Financial Crises and the Subprime Meltdown
17 October 2016 by Sigrid Brevik Wangsness
Bernanke Statement before Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (2010)
Introduction to Banking & Finance
Class 3- The Crash October 16, 2010
Financial Institutions and Markets
Interest Rates & Economic Bubbles
Presentation transcript:

Welcome Back Technical Co-Chairs Maurice Moses Ernst & Young LLP Dr. Lars Westpfahl Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer LLP

General Sponsors AlixPartners LLP Asset Reconstruction Company (India) Ltd BTG Mesirow Financial Consulting Deloitte LLP Derra, Meyer & Partner Financial Times Greenberg Traurig LLP hww wienberg wilhelm PricewaterhouseCoopers

Group of Thirty-Six AlixPartners LLP Allen & Overy LLP Alvarez & Marsal LLC Baker Tilly Begbies Global Network Bingham McCutchen LLP Cadwalader Wickersham & Taft LLP Chadbourne & Parke LLP Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP Davis Polk & Wardwell De Brauw Blackstone Westbroek Deloitte LLP Ernst & Young Ferrier Hodgson Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer Goodmans LLP Grant Thornton Greenberg Traurig LLP Huron Consulting Group LLC Jones Day Kaye Scholer LLP Kirkland & Ellis LLP KPMG LLP Linklaters LLP Lovells LLP Norton Rose LLP Pepper Hamilton LLP PPB PricewaterhouseCoopers RSM Corporate Advisory Services Shearman & Sterling LLP Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP Vantis Weil, Gotshal & Manges LLP White & Case LLP Zolfo Cooper LLP

Plenary Sessions Cross-border co-operation: Current trends Storms of the recent past and managing future challenges Joharah Ballroom

Breakouts – 11.15am A1 Over regulated or laissez-faire?: Role of the regulators Joharah Ballroom B1 Operational restructuring in the MENA region Joharah Ballroom 56 C1 Effect of the credit crunch on personal insolvency Joharah Ballroom 7

Breakouts – 1.00pm A2 Valuation of distressed entities, assessing where value breaks and the role of DIP funding: A case study Joharah Ballroom B2 Corporate failure – Poor governance or flawed business plans? Joharah Ballroom 56 C2 Practice management in a recession – How have we coped? Joharah Ballroom 7

Breakouts 2.15 – 3.30pm A3 Real estate in distress: Bankruptcy and restructuring cases Joharah Ballroom B3 Ponzi schemes: A recent discovery? Joharah Ballroom 56 C3 Surgeon or undertaker? Dealing with turnaround and burial issues in a credit crunch Joharah Ballroom 7

Cross-border co-operation: Current trends

Chair: Honorable Arthur J. Gonzalez, Chief Judge of the United States Bankruptcy Court, Southern District of New York The Hon. Mr. Justice Sanjay Kaul, Delhi High Court Stephen Baister, Chief Bankruptcy Registrar, High Court of Justice Senior Deputy Judge Jeanette Melchior, Maritime and Commercial Court, Copenhagen, Bankruptcy Division

Breakouts – 11.15am A1 Over regulated or laissez-faire?: Role of the regulators Joharah Ballroom B1 Operational restructuring in the MENA region Joharah Ballroom 56 C1 Effect of the credit crunch on personal insolvency Joharah Ballroom 7

Over regulated or laissez-faire?: Role of the regulators Chair: Carlos Mack, White & Case LLP Johnson Kong, BDO Limited Luis Manuel C. Méjan Carrer, Immediate Past Chairman of the International Association of Insolvency Regulators Kathrine Meloni, Slaughter and May

“Over regulated or laissez faire: How much regulation do the financial markets need?“ Dr. Carlos Mack, White & Case

“If you want good security, hire a thief” (Financial recruiter, explaining why disgraced bankers are being offered new jobs, in “The Power of Yes”) This presentation is mainly based on the play “The Power of Yes” by David Hare, currently showing at the National Theatre, London, as well as on extensive reading of academic, press, legal, accountancy, economic, ethical, etc publications.

The moral of the story Alan Greenspan before the crisis: “Markets are imperfect but they bring such benefits that you just have to live with the fact that from time to time they collapse, so you just pick up the bits. The benefits of the market are so great that you have to live with the price.” “Yes, but Alan, the people who end up paying the price are never the people who get the benefits.” (By the way, in the meantime even Alan Greenspan has revised his view: “What I said in June (before the crisis) no longer applies.” and: “The whole intellectual edifice (e g markets are decent and wise) has collapsed.”)

Do you recall the good old times of plain vanilla capitalism… “Capitalism without Bankruptcy is like Christianity without Hell” How many banks and/or insurance companies have you seen going bust?

The Financial Alchimist Formula: Black- Scholes Model Myron Scholes (Nobel Prize in Economics, run LTCM (Long Term Capital Management) and fellow academic Fisher Black algebraic formula to calculate risk by calculating the right price of a future option LTCM posted profits of more than 40 percent; ration of borrowing to capital (leverage) at 50 to 1 Believed to have eliminated risk by a mathematical model: Risk free gambling The B-S Model is still used to this day as the internationally recognised formula to calculated risk Caveat emptor: „When you model risk, you only model your own risk. You don‘t model for the whole system. That‘s the problem with mathematical modelling.“

The Financial Crisis in a nutshell: “SLUMP” “SLUMP” Sub-Prime

Never occurred to banks that the housing market would stop growing or even collapse Uncontrolled lending of money to ninjas (no income, no job, no assets) Over 1,000,000 mortgage dealers in US Cutting and Repacking

The Financial Crisis in a nutshell: “SLUMP” “SLUMP” Sub-Prime Liquidity

Liquidity circulation stopped on August 9th 2007 Banks didn‘t have a clue what sort of exotic-toxic stuff they had in their books All banks looking at each other and guessing who is holding the bad stuff System freezes: No one can/will borrow, no one can/will lend. Queen‘s Question at LSE: „Why did nobody see it coming?“ E g in the UK the FSA thought Bank of England was responsible, Bank of England thought it is for the FSA to look into the matter…

The Financial Crisis in a nutshell: “SLUMP” “SLUMP” Sub-Prime Liquidity Unravelling

Within Wall Street Lehman Brothers (not Sisters) was one of the big players pooling bad (sub-prime) assets, packaging them in mysterious structures and selling them across the planet. Investors (banks and private) around the world were full of this sub-prime crap. Once the investment began to fall it did not by a few per cent; quite on the contrary by 50 per cent, 70 per cent and more. Lehman should/could have been quietly managed out of business. However, the Fed drew the wrong line: the largest corporate failure in history was like a supernova exploding, leading to meltdown…

The Financial Crisis in a nutshell: “SLUMP” “SLUMP” Sub-Prime Liquidity Unravelling Meltdown

“Too big to fail!” Wall Street got its own new kind of socialism: Socialism for the rich. Privatize earnings and socialize losses. Here is where the sense of injustice begins to kick in! What‘s the purpose of Government? Everyone will agree on the common formula: To provide the public good. Defence, education, health and a well functioning financial system. The government’s job is not only to regulate. Its job is to provide a sound, reliable, decent financial system. Reality? Banking system has been off God knows where, doing God knows what! Size of damage? 6 trillion USD: 6,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000…

The Financial Crisis in a nutshell: “SLUMP” “SLUMP” Sub-Prime Liquidity Unravelling Meltdown Pumping

Helicopter money distribution started: Governments around the world throwing money out onto corpses: Fannies & Freddies and AIG and Northern Rock and Hypo Real Estate, and Fortis and Kaupthing, and Landsbanki and not to forget HBOS and the Royal Bank of Scotland Pumping tax payers money to pay out bonuses to bankers of de facto bankrupt banks and no end in sight…

Who is to blame? Pick your own choice Ninjas excessive borrowing The „Originate-to-Distribute“ Model The Black-Scholes Risk Model International Accounting Standards Fred Goodwin and Dick Fuld, i e Bankers (managers and supervisory board members) greed, lack of responsability and no fear/prudence Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown Hack Paulson (US Treasury Secretary and Banker) Alan Greenspan, Mervyn King and Jean-Claude Trichet Rating agencies (AAA) Investors (private & institutional) Accountants Lawyers OR JUST ANOTHER NORMAL BUSINESS CYCLE OF GROWTH & DECLINE?

What‘s the remedy? Regulation, stronger Governance rules… Liberal Anglo-American approach (still) believing in the self-regulating market forces against the Continental-European socio-capitalism with its firm conviction that capitalism needs regulation What sort of Regulation: –Light Touch Regulation? (either you regulate or you don‘t) –Watchdogs or bloodhounds?

What‘s the remedy? Regulation, stronger Governance rules… Stronger Governance rules Specific rules for the banking industry: –Early warning system –Cross border crisis management

… and the answer? “Right now it’s too late for an analysis and to early for a forecast…”

Over regulated or laissez-faire?: Role of the regulators Chair: Carlos Mack, White & Case LLP Johnson Kong, BDO Limited Luis Méjan, Immediate Past Chairman of the International Association of Insolvency Regulators Kathrine Meloni, Slaughter and May

Breakouts – 1.00pm A2 Valuation of distressed entities, assessing where value breaks and the role of DIP funding: A case study Joharah Ballroom B2 Corporate failure – Poor governance or flawed business plans? Joharah Ballroom 56 C2 Practice management in a recession – How have we coped? Joharah Ballroom 7

Valuation of distressed entities, assessing where value breaks and the role of DIP funding: A case study

Valuation of distressed entities, assessing where value breaks and the role of DIP funding: A case study Chair: Robin Spencer, Lovells LLP Neil McCauley, The Commercial Bank of Qatar (Q.S.C) Dr. Frank Nikolaus, Nikolaus & Co. LLP Keith J. Shapiro, Greenberg Traurig LLP

MillbyMicron Group Structure Chart PE Investors MillbyMicron (Holdings) Ltd EnglandUnited StatesGermanyDubai £100m (Senior) £50m (Mezzanine) Current Indebtedness to Finance Parties MillbyMicron Ltd (UK) MillbyMicron Inc (US) MillbyMicron GmbH (DE) MillbyMicron (Dubai) Ltd (DU) £37.5m

Valuation of distressed entities, assessing where value breaks and the role of DIP funding: A case study Chair: Robin Spencer, Lovells LLP Neil McCauley, The Commercial Bank of Qatar (Q.S.C) Dr. Frank Nikolaus, Nikolaus & Co. LLP Keith J. Shapiro, Greenberg Traurig LLP

Breakouts 2.15 – 3.30pm A3 Real estate in distress: Bankruptcy and restructuring cases Joharah Ballroom B3 Ponzi schemes: A recent discovery? Joharah Ballroom 56 C3 Surgeon or undertaker? Dealing with turnaround and burial issues in a credit crunch Joharah Ballroom 7