Are we ready for REDD? Multidimensional policies for reducing Amazon deforestation: 2001-2010 Gilberto Câmara Director, National Institute for Space Research.

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Presentation transcript:

Are we ready for REDD? Multidimensional policies for reducing Amazon deforestation: Gilberto Câmara Director, National Institute for Space Research Brazil

Governance + markets + technology >> REDD+ Reducing deforestation in Amazonia

Conflicting prospects for REDD

~230 scenes Landsat/year Yearly detailed estimates of clear-cut areas PRODES: Clear-cut deforestation mapping

Economic recovery and deforestation: Yearly deforestation rate for : 27,100 km2

Strong reaction from public opinion What is the proper scientific reaction?

T2 – Loss of smaller trees How does deforestation happen? T1 – Selective logging T3 – Loss >50% of forestT4 – Loss >90% of forest

15-day warnings of newly deforested large areas (MODIS) DETER: Real-time Deforestation Monitoring

TerraAmazon – open source software for large-scale land change monitoring Spatial database (PostgreSQL with vectors and images) data: 5 million polygons, 500 GB images

For a while, everything went well...

Transparency builds governance registrations 46 million protests

Then, in January

Transparency builds governance

X Credit crunch in 43 municipalities 31% of total deforestation in % of total deforestation in 2008

2008 Impact of policing and credit crunch in 2008 “Fire arch” policing operation Illegal cattle seizure Start of credit crunch source: IMAZON

Challenge for real-time monitoring Deforestation by size of fragment (ha) PRODES: 2002 a 2009

Optical land imaging satellites (5-60 m) Sentinel-2A 2011 Amazônia Landsat-8 CBERS-3 CBERS-4 ResourceSat-2 AWIFSSat ResourceSat-3 Sentinel-2B

Protected areas and deforestation: 1997

Protected areas and deforestation: 2000

Protected areas and deforestation: 2001

Protected areas and deforestation: 2002

Protected areas and deforestation: 2003

Protected areas and deforestation: 2004

Protected areas and deforestation: 2005

Protected areas and deforestation: 2006

Protected areas and deforestation: 2007

Protected areas and deforestation: 2008

Policing actions: illegal wood seizure 50% of operations in 10% of the area

Fines from policing operations source: Environment Ministry, Brazil

Markets have a positive rôle

Reducing pressure for land poaching land tenure rights to 300 mil settlers

Governance + markets + technology >> REDD+ Reducing deforestation in Amazonia

Is REDD necessary and beneficial? Money to whom? migrant workers? big farmers? How much will they get?

What could be the size of REDD? 10% REDD Reduction of developed countries 46,2 Gt CO2eq REDD 4,62 Gt CO2eq To maintain environmental integrity, REDD should be at most 10% of the commitments of developed countries, if they agree to reduce their emissions by 50% between 2010 and 2020

What could be the size of REDD in Brazil? REDD 4,62 Gt CO2eq Proposed reduction 4,9 Gt CO2eq From 2010 to 2020, the emissions cuts proposed by Brazil would be larger than the entire worldwide market for REDD

Will REDD create self-defeating outcomes? ‘We have a resource we would like to get money for. Either you pay us for biodiversity services or we will sell the forest to Malaysian logging companies.’ (Guyana government officer)