Session 5.1 Adaptation for extreme events Terry Cannon

Hazardous places are livelihood places People often trade the risks of a place and a hazard for the livelihood benefits of that location – Volcanic soils – Floods and soil fertility and fish – Coasts for fishing – Water supplies and fault zones – Florida, California, Netherlands…

Disaster Death Injury Illness Hunger/ Dehydration Loss of Assets Livelihood loss or disruption Life support loss or disruption Hazard Flood Cyclone Earthquake Tsunami Volcanic eruption Drought Landslide Biological Vulnerability component Livelihood & its resilience Base-line status Well-being Self-protection Social Protection Governance EXPOSUREEXPOSURE “Crunch” Pressure and Release (PAR) model

Disaster Death Injury Illness Hunger/ Dehydration Loss of Assets Livelihood loss or disruption Life support loss or disruption Social Structures & Power Systems Class Gender Ethnicity Caste Other power relationships Hazard Flood Cyclone Earthquake Tsunami Volcanic eruption Drought Landslide Biological Vulnerability component Livelihood & its resilience Base-line status Well-being Self- protection Social Protection Governance EXPOSUREEXPOSURE SOCIALFRAMESOCIALFRAME “Crunch” Pressure and Release (PAR) model ROOTCAUSESROOTCAUSES

National & International Political Economy Power relations Demographics Conflicts & War Environmental Trends Debt Crises Etc Social Structures & Power Systems Class Gender Ethnicity Caste Other power relationships Hazard Flood Cyclone Earthquake Tsunami Volcanic eruption Drought Landslide Biological DISASTERDISASTER Vulnerability component Livelihood & its resilience Base-line status Well-being Self- protection Social Protection Governance SOCIALFRAMESOCIALFRAME “Crunch” Pressure and Release (PAR) model ROOTCAUSESROOTCAUSES

Components of Vulnerability Livelihood & its resilience – Assets and income earning activities Base-line status - well-being – Health (physical & mental), nutrition, Self-protection – Quality of house construction & location Social Protection – Adequacy of building controls; large-scale measures Governance – Power system, rights, status of civil society

Household & livelihood Baseline status

Household & livelihood Baseline status Other households

Livelihood Baseline status Other households Governance (power)

People & risk priorities Natural hazards may not be at the top of people’s priorities Daily life – the pursuit of livelihoods – takes precedence above all Changing people’s perception of risk and their behaviour is crucial but difficult! Reducing disaster vulnerability requires FIRST strengthening livelihoods

Photo: La Paz, Bolivia Fabien Nathan

Risk hierarchy Extreme but infrequent “Little we can do about them..” Damaging & within memory Common & coped with EQ Land slide Flood DroughtFire Tropical cyclones Severe flood Everyday life: poverty, illness, hunger, water, traffic accidents Priorities !

Vulnerability reduction = Development? Protect and strengthen livelihoods of the vulnerable Improve people’s base-line conditions Improve quantity and quality of assets available for income-generating activities Preserve natural sources of protection – e.g. mangroves, forests Make assets hazard-proof Reduce risk of disruption of employment activities by hazards

Main CC impact themes Climate Hazards (shocks): – requires vulnerability analysis and livelihood protection to prevent disasters. – Is it same as Disaster Risk Reduction? Climate Trends (changes in expected conditions): – requires assessment of livelihood impacts – primary and secondary. – Potentially worse than disasters? Combinations of shocks & changes to norm – Surprises, variability, intensities, what is normal for some is a shock for others

Adaptation gap issues “Adaptation is the form that development must take in response to climate change” What has prevented or constrained development so far? Will those factors go away simply because of CC? We should explore in what ways CBA can provide the evidence required to ‘cost’ or fill these different adaptation gaps The gaps defined by the people may be different from that defined by outsiders (who have a different set of priorities)