New Principles for Economic Success in the Age of Biocapacity Constraints Mathis Wackernagel, Ph.D. STOA Lecture – November 29, 2011 A Euro Crisis … or a Resource Crisis?

Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors 3

Global Footprint = 1.5 Global Biocapacity “today” 4

The Ecological Footprint CARBON footprint 5

Biocapacity: How much bioproductive area is available to us? Ecological Footprint: How much bioproductive area do we demand? Accounting Framework for Ecological Services 6

The Basic Equation Amount per year Yield = Area

Amount per year Area = Yield Translate area from ha into global ha… The Basic Equation

Ecological Footprint per person Biocapacity per person Italy 9

Composition of Italy’s Biocapacity Deficit Ecological Footprint per person Italy Biocapacity per person

Commodity prices (WB index) Source: World Bank – pink sheet 11

12 x World Commodity Prices = Cost of Biocapacity Deficit Biocapacity Deficit Italy

Italy’s Biocapacity Deficit Cost of Italy’s Biocapacity Deficit (WMP of all that cannot be renewed within Italy) 13 Italy’s GDP per person

Italy’s Biocapacity Deficit Change in Italian’s relative income 14

Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors in Europe Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity PER CAPITA, HU DKAT DE ES RO SE CH IT PT NL FR PO GR RU BE FI UK IR SK CZ BY RS UA 15

Costs of resources Ecuador’s residents consume but Ecuador’s ecosystems cannot regenerate (at world market price)

Factory world… or? Biocapacity Deficit and Absolute Income (1980 – 2007)

…global auction? Biocapacity Deficit and Global Income Share (1980 – 2007)

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Insights Downward escalator of resource costs outpaces economies’ ability to run upwards. Euro crisis is a symptom of a deepening resource crunch. Turning around resource trends is a necessary condition for Europe’s economy to recover. 22

New principles Nature has a budget. Do you know how much biocapacity you have? and how much you use? Biocapacity is the currency of the 21 st century. Blindness to biocapacity budget costs lives & opportunities. Self-interest for countries and cities to act is overwhelming 23