California Energy Commission California Light Duty Vehicle Surveys Inputs and Assumptions for Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts Rosenfeld Hearing.

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Presentation transcript:

California Energy Commission California Light Duty Vehicle Surveys Inputs and Assumptions for Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts Rosenfeld Hearing Room March 19, 2015 Aniss Bahreinian Demand Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division /

California Energy Commission Purpose Provide information about an important primary source of data Elements of survey data designed for use in formulating the Light Duty Vehicle choice models Why the survey should be repeated Provide information about upcoming survey Seek ARB and CalTrans collaboration Seek stakeholder input on the new survey 2

California Energy Commission Light Duty Vehicles – What’s Important About them Focus of CAFÉ, ZEV and other regulations and standards Most dynamic markets and technologies Shifting economic conditions and prices lead to changes in vehicle choice Consumer knowledge of new technologies evolve over time, and with increased exposure to alternative vehicle technologies and fuels Consumer preferences change over time Vehicle survey is our tool to assess these changes 3

California Energy Commission Light Duty Vehicle Demand Models Survey designed around the vehicle choice models Vehicle type choice equation assesses the consumer preferences for different vehicle and fuel types. Vehicles defined in terms of their attributes, including vehicle class, but excluding the manufacturer and model Data from stated preferences surveys of household and commercial fleet owners used to estimate the vehicle type choice equation for each market segment. Energy Commission models uniquely differentiate between residential and commercial consumer behavior. Continue collaboration with ARB and CalTrans for design and testing

California Energy Commission Vehicle Technologies in the Survey Gasoline Gasoline Hybrid Flex Fuel Vehicle (E85) Diesel Diesel Hybrid CNG CNG Hybrid CNG Dual Fuel Battery Electric Vehicle Plug-in Electric vehicle (PHEV) Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle (FCV) Self Driving Vehicles (New to survey) 5

California Energy Commission Stated Preference Survey Instrument 6

California Energy Commission Different Households, Different Choices 7

California Energy Commission Questions? Comments? Suggestions? Aniss Bahreinian Demand Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division /