TRACKING TOXIC AIR POLLUTANTS from emissions to impacts NOELLE E. Carnegie Mellon University Center.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

1 Economics 331b Spring 2009 Integrated Assessment Models of Economics of Climate Change.

Advertisements

GLOBAL IMPACTS OF AIR POLLUTION: Mercury, Ozone and Particulate Matter Noelle Eckley Selin Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Center.

Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies on EU and global level: Integrating agriculture, land use, environmental and socio- economic aspects.

EPA’s Global Change Research Program: A View from EPA’s Office of Air & Radiation Terry J. Keating, Ph.D. OAR/Office of Policy Analysis & Review 9/26/2005.

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support.

Department of Environmental Sciences And Policy Central European University Nádor u. 9, Budapest, H-1051 Hungary Phone: (36 1) Fax: (36 1)

EVALUATING MERCURY EXPOSURE AND SOURCE ATTRIBUTION USING GEOS-CHEM Noelle Eckley Selin Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Center.

1 Consideration of Air Quality/Climate Linkages for Analyses Jason Samenow and Ben DeAngelo October 24, 2004 Climate Analysis Branch Climate Change Division.

Climate Change Science Program Climate Policy & Voluntary Programs Mercury & Water Quality Pesticides & Other POPs Local & Regional Air Quality Intercontinental.

SOURCE ATTRIBUTION OF MERCURY EXPOSURE FOR U.S. SEAFOOD CONSUMERS: IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY Noelle Eckley Selin Joint Program on the Science and Policy.

The Panelists for Mission Howard Herzog Principal Research Engineer, MIT Laboratory for Energy and the Environment Transport of CO 2 Program manager,

LINKAGES AND SYNERGIES OF REGIONAL AND GLOBAL EMISSION CONTROL Workshop of the UN/ECE Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling January 27-29, 2003.

From Models to Decisions Amir Hakami Carleton University.

Technology, innovation and sustainable production Course presentation And Introductive concepts.

Mitigation of air pollution and climate change in China Workshop in Oslo 17 – 19 October 2004 Financial support by The Research Council of Norway & Norwegian.

European Scenarios of Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases Mitigation: Focus on Poland J. Cofala, M. Amann, W. Asman, I. Bertok, C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, L.

1 Co-benefits of options for cleaner energy use in China Wellcome Trust Meeting, London, May 27, 2008 Kristin Aunan, CICERO China – an important country.

1 CICERO research in China on GHG and AP (co-) control in urban areas NILU, November Kristin Aunan Center for International Climate and Environmental.

Impacts of Ozone Pollution and Reductions for Low-Income Households Rebecca K. Saari 1 Tammy M. Thompson 2, Noelle E. Selin 1 October 29, 2014 CMAS Conference.

Toward the integration of air quality and climate strategies at the state level Daniel Cohan CMAS Conference October 29, 2014.

Using Earth System Models to provide policy-relevant information (Couples therapy for the uneasy marriage between science and policy)‏ Gavin Schmidt NASA.

The Earth’s Changing Environment or Energy, Environment, and Sustainable Development 10 Central Issues April 28, 2003.

Air Pollution Solutions Ch. 18. How should we deal with air pollution? Legal, economic, and technical tools can help us to clean up air pollution, but.

Global Modeling of Mercury in the Atmosphere using the GEOS-CHEM model Noelle Eckley, Rokjin Park, Daniel Jacob 30 January 2004.

1 EPA’s Climate Change Strategy Robert J. Meyers Principal Deputy Assistant Administrator U.S. EPA, Office of Air and Radiation December 3, 2007.

National Academy of Sciences: Air Quality Management in the United States MWAQC Briefing March 24, 2004.

Cost Analysis of Impacts of Climate Change on Regional Air Quality Kuo-Jen Liao*, Efthimios Tagaris and Armistead G. Russell School of Civil & Environmental.

Integrated Assessment of Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases Mitigation Janusz Cofala International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Laxenburg,

THE PEP Sub-regional workshop September 2013 Health effects of particulate matter: Policy implications for EECCA countries Marie-Eve Héroux Technical Officer,

Integrated projections of U.S. air quality benefits from avoided climate change Fernando Garcia Menendez Rebecca K. Saari, Erwan Monier, Noelle E. Selin.

Impact of Climate Mitigation on Aerosol Concentrations and Health Effects in Asia Noelle Eckley Selin Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global.

. s Yuqiang Zhang 1, J. Jason West 1, Meridith M. Fry 1, Raquel A. Silva 1, Steven J. Smith 2, Vaishali Naik 4, Zachariah Adelman 1, Susan C. Anenberg.

Connecting Climate Change, Air Pollution, and Human Health J. Jason West Department of Environmental Sciences & Engineering University of North Carolina,

Instructor Özgür ZEYDAN (PhD.) Department of Environmental Engineering.

1 Scripps Inst. of Oceanography University of California at San Diego Oakland, California, October 18, 2013 V. Ramanathan, University of California, San.

The links to global problems Presentation at the 25 th anniversary special event of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution “Past successes.

1 Co-benefits of CDM projects in China CDM and Climate Policy: Multidisciplinary Perspectives MILEN Workshop 18 November 2009 Holmenkollen Park Hotell,

Georgia Climate Change Summit antruth Al Gore: an inconvenient truth IPCC: 4th Assessment Report 2007 Nobel Peace Prize.

Air, Space and Water Denver 2011 ACS meeting Ronald C. Cohen University of California, Berkeley.

Climate Change – Defra’s Strategy & Priorities Dr Steven Hill Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs 22 nd May 2007 FLOODING DESTRUCTION AT.

1 Carnegie Mellon University Spatial Analysis of Air Quality Impacts from Using Natural Gas for Road Transportation Fan Tong, Paulina Jaramillo, Ines Azevedo.

1 Improving the parameterization of land-surface exchange in the GEOS-Chem Hg model Shaojie Song and Noelle Selin Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Co-benefits of mitigating global greenhouse gas emissions for future air quality and human health J. Jason West Department of Environmental Sciences &

TF HTAP, TF IAM, Vienna, February HTAP-GAINS scenario analysis: preliminary exploration of emission scenarios with regard to the benefits of global.

SOURCE ATTRIBUTION OF MERCURY EXPOSURE FOR U.S. SEAFOOD CONSUMERS: IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY Noelle Eckley Selin Joint Program on the Science and Policy.

Evaluating Societal Impacts Related to Air Quality and Climate Thanks to many colleagues, especially Greg Faluvegi & Yunha Lee Drew Shindell Nicholas School.

Breakout Session 1 Air Quality Jack Fishman, Randy Kawa August 18.

Strategic Plan Development Status Technical Analysis Forum meeting October 11, 2007.

European Commission Directorate-General for Energy and Transport n° 111/04/2001 Directorate F - Air Transport ICAO Colloquium 9-11 April 2001 Montreal,

Metrics and MODIS Diane Wickland December, Biology/Biogeochemistry/Ecosystems/Carbon Science Questions: How are global ecosystems changing? (Question.

G L O B A L E N V I R O N M E N T F A C I L I T Y - GEF-4 Strategies Sound Chemicals Management SAICM 2 nd Donors Meeting, Paris, 11 Feb.

Urban Institute Ireland/University College Dublin School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Policy, Dublin, Ireland Eda Ustaoglu.

Co-benefits of Global Greenhouse Gas Mitigation for US Air Quality and Health J. Jason West Department of Environmental Sciences & Engineering University.

Integrating Frameworks for Energy and Climate Policy Analysis. Professor Rudolf B. Husar, Director, Center for Air Pollution Impact and Trend Analysis,

CONSTRAINTS FROM RGM MEASUREMENTS ON GLOBAL MERCURY CHEMISTRY Noelle Eckley Selin 1 Daniel J. Jacob 1, Rokjin J. Park 1, Robert M. Yantosca 1, Sarah Strode,

Required Restricted elective (400 level)

Climate Change and Health in Indian Cities: Modeling the Impacts of Heat And Air Pollution and Potential Co-Benefits From Mitigation and Adaptation.

Social costs of fuel-vehicle pathways

Debrief to the Mercury Negotiation Simulation

Technology, innovation and sustainable production

Mingwei Li Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences

Rebecca Saari Assistant Professor Civil & Environmental Engineering

Clean Air for Europe and Research Needs

EASIUR: A Reduced-Complexity Model Derived from CAMx

Tao Feng1, Evan Couzo2, Noelle E. Selin1,

Meeting of the Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling Prague, May 2-4, 2007 EC4MACS European Consortium for Modelling of Air Pollution and Climate.

Research connecting air quality, climate change, energy, policy and health J. Jason West Department of Environmental Sciences & Engineering University.

Second Stakeholder Expert Group meeting 19-20/01/2012

Air quality and health benefits of shale gas development in China

Tentative Ideas for Co-operation

Presentation transcript:

TRACKING TOXIC AIR POLLUTANTS from emissions to impacts NOELLE E. Carnegie Mellon University Center for Climate and Energy Decision-Making Seminar 2 December 2013

Particles are a leading cause of global disease

Mercury harms 600,000 U.S. babies eac h year

Toxic air is everywhere

Future emissions implications: Selin, ET&C 2013; Friedman et al. ES&T in press Toxics policy: Selin, JEM 2011; Selin & Selin, RECIEL 2006; Selin, 2005, 2006 (MIT Press) Assessment of economic impacts of pollution: Selin et al. ERL 2009; Matus et al. GEC 2012; Nam et al. Energy Policy 2010 Transport of Hg/ POPs: Selin et al. JGR 2007, GBC 2008; Selin & Jacob AE 2008, Friedman & Selin ES&T 2012

Flickr/WIDNR cc Flickr/meg’s my name cc Flickr/JonPinder cc To manage air pollution effectively, we need to understand the whole system Flickr/vgm8383 cc

1 Air pollution impacts of US climate policy US benefits from global mercury treaty Two examples of tracking emissions to impacts to inform policy Policies-to-impacts sensitivity analysis approach

T. M. Thompson, S. Rausch, R. K. Saari, and N.E. Selin, “Air Quality Co-Benefits of US Carbon Policies: A Systems Approach to Evaluating Policy Outcomes and Uncertainties,” under review

Carbon Policies Cap and TradeClean EnergyTransportation reduce CO 2 by 10% from 2006 to 2030

WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR OZONE AND PM 2.5 ? Carbon policies target different sources.

Integrated assessment modeling economy, atmosphere, and health Policies alter economy and emissions Emissions, chemistry and transport Exposure leads to health impacts and costs USREPCAMxBenMAP

Carbon policies reduce different pollutants Agriculture (economic impact) Power Plants Cars & trucks SO 2 NOx CO NH 3

Widespread decreases in O 3 and PM

Results suggest “win-win” opportunities

Cap and trade has large net (co-) benefits Flickr/ecstaticist cc

Vertical extent: 95% CI for benefits Each line: Different economic assumption >100% >150% >50%

Flickr/ecstaticist cc Cap and trade co-benefits are most variable

Benefits vary less than costs. Economic assumptions determine net benefits flickr/velo_city cc

“Win-win” now: What about the future?

A. Giang and N.E. Selin, in prep; A. Giang, MIT Technology and Policy Program Master’s Thesis, 2013

Newest global environmental treaty

Largest mercury sources Flickr/onesevenoneFlickr/onesevenone cccc

Mercury is a global and local problem [Selin & Jacob, Atmos. Env. 2008]

Tracking emissions to impacts for Hg

Integrated assessment for Hg

US gains $38 billion from Minamata discounted at 3%

US will see substantial benefits from Minamata treaty

How can we assess contributions to overall uncertainty?

Policies-to-impacts sensitivity analysis shows largest policy-relevant uncertainties Chemistry Ecosystem timescales Dietary choice Dose- response

Dietary choices can be as important as other uncertainties

Benefit depends on timescales Selin, Ann. Rev. Env. Res., 2009

What will happen globally? Selin, Env. Tox. & Chem., % +12% +18% +8%+4% -12% Present Policy (2050) +75% +150% +116% +25% +53% +25% +85% +100% +36% No policy (2050) 0%

More data coming soon

To learn more, play the Hg game

Postdocs: Carey Friedman (PhD, URI) Fernando Garcia Menendez (PhD, Georgia Tech) Graduate Students: Rebecca Saari, Engineering Systems 4 th yr: Air pollution health impacts Ellen Czaika, Engineering Systems 4 th yr: Sustainability decision-making Shaojie Song, Earth, Atmospheric & Planetary Sciences, 3 rd yr: Mercury Colin Pike-Thackray, Earth, Atmospheric & Planetary Sciences, 3 rd yr : POPs Amanda Giang, Engineering Systems, MS TPP and 1 st yr PhD: Mercury Mingwei Li, Earth, Atmospheric & Planetary Sciences, 1 st yr: Pollution transport Leah Stokes, Urban Studies/Planning DUSP 4 th yr: Mercury science-policy (primary advisor: Larry Susskind) Jareth Holt, EAPS 4 th yr: Air pollution uncertainties (co-advised with Susan Solomon) Corey Tucker, Technology and Policy Program, 1 st yr: Mercury Recent alumni: Tammy Thompson (PhD, U. Texas): Regional-to-global atmospheric chemistry modeling, now at CIRA/Colorado State University as Research Scientist Funding: NSF: Atmospheric Chemistry Program CAREER grant; NSF Office of Polar Programs; NSF Coupled Natural and Human Systems Program; MIT Research Support Committee Ferry fund; MIT Research Support Committee Wade Fund; U.S. EPA: Science to Achieve Results (STAR) Program; Leading Technology and Policy Initiative at MIT