Thames Gateway: Big numbers or big mistake? Liz Richardson and Christine Whitehead LSE Housing and LSE London Monday 25 April 2005 London School of Economics

Beginners Guide The Area -43 miles long and 20 miles wide -4,600 hectares brownfield land plus scraps, but half in flood plain -TGL includes 10 London Boroughs The Population -2.3 m in TGL, up by 13.6% since 1991 over 250 neighbourhoods -ethnic minority population up from 18 to 26% over 10 years Housing -London average owner occupation but social renting high in places -house prices way below London average -Investment gaps in social housing to meet standards Economic base -7 of the 10 are in the most deprived -legacy of industrial past in skills gaps and unemployment levels Transport -Good links in some places but serious gaps elsewhere and uncertain plans

LSE’s work Backdrop of Sustainable Communities Plan Commissioned by TGLP and East London Housing Directors No clear identity for sub-region or agreed vision Other sub regions housing strategies in place

Our goals Work out from the city and existing centres Increase the attractions of the London TG Use infill sites and conversions Renovate and modernise existing homes Avoid ghettoisation of poor and vulnerable people Avoid a ‘big bang, big brother’ approach Minimise environmental impact and energy use Value the natural assets

Start from existing communities Advocate up-front investment in physical and social infrastructure Plan for higher density, more mixed use, more integrated communities Build and renovate homes to the highest possible eco-standards Invest in high quality urban design Protect and reinstate the natural environment Recommendations

Full remediation Excellent eco-standards Ambitious recycling, water use and energy targets Natural landscaping and waterways Average densities of new development Diversifying existing council estates Renting and owning more even Building new vs. restoring and repairing existing property Integrating new with existing communities Attracting young families in essential jobs Essential measures of success

Major Issues 1.Scale: the area covered is enormous, including three regions and dozens of local authorities and sub-regions as well as other agencies What elements make it logical to treat as one? Is it simply the vision? The river? – or are there real economic and social benefits? Is the governance structure in place or is it a way of allowing central government to dominate?

2.Where concentrate development?: clearly cannot address the whole area in one – and no suggestion that should There are areas where development can be brought forward relatively easily BUT are these low cost/low value possibilities? Is there a mechanism for evaluating the relative NET benefits of different locations/ configurations etc. – or are we simply seeing plans come off the shelf?

3.Impact on Existing Areas: are the new plans being imposed on an existing framework to the cost of other long-run developments? Existing town centres – how can they survive? Regeneration programmes just outside the area? Additionality v. diversion?

4.How Does the Existing Population Benefit?: Concerns about overstretched social infrastructure and less interest in maintaining/improving existing units Decent Homes S106 inadequate for infrastructure Timing of benefits

5.Types of Development: emphasis on numbers; potential for economic regeneration Small flats Key workers Problems of quality and building for the long term? Housing rather than economic base?

6.Big Numbers or Big Mistake? Costs – costs per unit of development particularly high? Belief in “infinite” economic rent? – too much expected from land values? Adverse effect on lower profile but higher net value developments elsewhere? Need for big hits early on with longer term costs? Or are we just grumpy, and in one case old, women?