Redefining the Human-Earth relationship… Katherine Richardson Professor og Vice Dean, University of Copenhagen Chairman for ”Climate Commission”

From: Steffen et al. 2004

Kaufman, Darrell S., et al Recent Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling. Science, September 4, 2009 Steffen, W., et al Humanity in the Anthropocene

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Climate Change We suggest boundary values of 350 ppm CO 2 and 1 W m -2 above pre-industrial level

The Congress is sponsored by:

AIR TEMPERATURE CHANGE

Blue: Red:

Climate Change Air temperature CSIRO

Polar Ice sheets melting faster than predicted at last IPCC

Sea-level rising faster than predicted Rise of approx. 1 m or more expected by 2100

“much better than expected”? “Over the past two years, sea levels have not increased at all — actually, they show a slight drop. Should we not be told that this is much better than expected?“ Björn Lomborg “Let the data speak for itself” The Guardian, 14 Oct 2008

Emissions rising faster than predicted SRES (2000) growth rates in % y -1 for : A1B: 2.42 A1FI: 2.71 A1T: 1.63 A2: 2.13 B1: 1.79 B2: 1.61 Observed 2000 – %

Ocean acidification Challenge to marine biodiversity and ability of oceans to function as sink of CO 2 Southern Ocean and Arctic ocean projected to become corrosive to aragonite by Turley et al 2006

From R. Buddemeier, based on Kleypas et al. 1999

(Smith et al PNAS) Updated Reasons for Concern EU 2°C-Guardrail Source: H.J. Schellnhuber

17 Uncertain uncertainty ref: Baer and Mastrandrea (2006) 3 ºC 6 ºC

Why should we stop burning fossil fuels? Because of their contribution to climate change. Because fossil fuels create geopolitical tensions (national security issues, economic vulnerability of fluctuating fuel prices, energy security..) Because fossil fuels are finite resources – oil: 41 years, natural gas: 60 years, coal: 133 years (source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008)

mb/d Natural gas liquids Non-conventional oil Crude oil - yet to be developed (inc. EOR) or found Crude oil - currently producing fields International Energy Agency: World oil production in the Reference Scenario 64 mb/d of gross capacity needs to be installed between 2007 & 2030 – six times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia – to meet demand growth & offset decline

Why fossil fuels create geopolitical tensions. Proven reserves - oil (source:BP)

Coal Least problematic global distribution of reservesLeast problematic global distribution of reserves Most problematic for climate changeMost problematic for climate change

Natural Gas 40 percent better than coal for the climate National security issues.. (Russia, Iran….)

EU: Growing import dependency over the next 25 years.

KEY MESSAGE: Future energy supplies are not secure...

Danmark’s energy source: world expert in renewable energy but there’s a long way to go!

A double challenge - to reduce energy use and replace fossil fuels as the primary energy source We have the technology!!

Even the International Energy Agency says that an ”Energy Revolution” is necessary Note: In revolutions there are winners and losers… Winners understand what challenges the future will bring and are ready to handle them.

In the midst of the COP process… A transition to non-fossil fuel energy sources is a necessity and a prerequisite for economic growth in the not too distant future! We need to change the way we think and speak about dealing with climate change! There is also a world after December 2009!!