U.S. Climate Change Science Program Current Activities and Future Directions: From Planning to Implementation Committee on Climate Analysis, Monitoring and Services October 24, 2003 Richard H. Moss, Ph.D. Climate Change Science Program Office Joint Global Change Research Institute

U.S. Climate Change Science Program – History U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP): 1989 and 1990 President Bush announced Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI) and Climate Change Technology Initiative (CCTI) – June 11, 2001 President Bush announced new cabinet-level management responsibilities for climate science and technology programs – February 14, 2002 CCSP Strategic Plan released by Secretaries Evans and Abraham and implementation process begins – July 24, 2003

Plans 4 broad approaches including 7 research elements Sets goals for reporting on five CCSP goals Focuses USGCRP on climate change and encourages greater product orientation Responds to both Administration directives and NRC (Pathways) recommendation for more focus Short-term implementation includes 21 synthesis and assessment products Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program

Guiding Vision for the CCSP A nation and the global community empowered with the science-based knowledge to manage the risks and opportunities of change in the climate and related environmental systems.

CCSP Mission Facilitate the creation and application of knowledge of the Earth’s global environment through: research observations decision support communication

U.S. CCSP Strategic Plan – Table of Contents Chapter 1. Introduction Chapter 2. Integrating Climate and Global Change Research Chapter 3. Atmospheric Composition Chapter 4. Climate Variability and Change Chapter 5. Water Cycle Chapter 6. Land-Use/Land-Cover Change Chapter 7. Carbon Cycle Chapter 8. Ecosystems Chapter 9. Human Contributions and Responses to Environmental Change Chapter 10. Modeling Strategy Chapter 11. Decision Support Resources Development Chapter 12. Observing and Monitoring the Climate System Chapter 13. Data Management and Information Chapter 14. Communications Chapter 15. International Research & Cooperation Chapter 16. Program Management and Review

CCSP will continue long-term discovery-driven and “applied” research Atmospheric Composition Climate Variability and Change Global Water Cycle Land-Use/Land-Cover Change Global Carbon Cycle Ecosystems Human Contributions and Responses to Environmental Change

Attributes of long-term research activities Extramural and intramural research supported by participating Agencies Large number of deliverables Incubator for knowledge that is then used in decision support resource development Interactions with users in research mode Coordinated through interagency working groups with external guidance and review Challenge: balance long-term Earth system research with focus on climate uncertainties

Five Integrated Goals for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program Goal 1: Improve knowledge of the Earth’s past and present climate and environment, including their natural variability, and improve understanding of the causes of observed variability and change Goal 2: Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth’s climate and related systems Goal 3: Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’s climate and related systems may change in the future Goal 4: Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed ecosystems and human systems to climate and related global changes Goal 5: Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change

Goals Have Research Foci and Synthesis and Assessment Products Foci highlight broad, long-term areas of importance Products address specific needs (from policy discussions, workshop) and opportunities (from research elements and agencies) Product mix will evolve over time

Purpose of Synthesis and Assessment Reports Convey the most up-to-date information available, drawing on the evolving body of climate and global change research Address the full range of scientific issues, from past/present conditions to evaluation of options for response Evaluate levels of confidence and explain how scientific controversies relate to public issues

Guidelines for Synthesis and Assessment Products Government documents; mixture of external and Federal actors involved in preparation Lead agencies take responsibility “Guidelines” under agency review (c.f. IPCC) Framing: define product and customer; community input; draft prospectus for comment Drafting: open to LA nominations and input of materials Review: open, transparent, and traceable Production: consistent format; CCSPO website

Improve capabilities to forecast seasonal to interannual cycles of variability Increase confidence in understanding how and why climate has changed Better understanding of long term natural cycles in climate Understand climate extremes Expand observations/data capabilities

Detection and Attribution Global mean temperature increased by °C. 1990’s warmest decade, 1998 warmest year in the instrumental record ( ) Changes observed during the last several decades mostly due to human activities but “a causal linkage between the buildup of GHG’s and observed changes cannot be unequivocally established”. Degree of confidence higher, but: Natural variability Model simulations Proxy evidence Inconsistencies in records

Reduce uncertainty in sources and sinks of GHG’s, aerosols Improve understanding of climate change, ozone, atmosphere Interactions among pollutant emissions, atm. transport, air quality Quantify net emissions of GHG’s Capabilities for conducting “If…,then…” analysis

Characterization of circulation of oceans and atmosphere Improve understanding of key “feedbacks” (i.e. water vapor) Understand conditions that give rise to rapid changes in ocean circulation. Incorporate best knowledge of climate processes and feedbacks into models. Improve capacity to develop and apply models.

Larger climate changes are projected for the 21st century Higher global average surface temperatures Warming larger in higher latitudes and over land Sea ice retreats and sea surface temperatures warm almost everywhere Rise of sea level Uncertainties in modeling key feedback processes (clouds, water vapor, aerosols) Uncertainties in regional climate change and its impact Uncertainties associated with abrupt changes (i.e. ocean thermohaline circulation)

Improve knowledge of sensitivity of ecosystems Provide scientific input for evaluating adaptation options Improve understanding of how changes in ecosystems and human infrastructure interact

Observed changes in regional climates have affected terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Average growing season longer Ranges of some species of plants, insects, birds, and fish shifted poleward and upward in elevation Earlier flowering in some plants Increased frequency of coral bleaching

Provide scientific and assessment reports Support adaptive management Support policymaking by conducting comparative analyses

Strategy for Achieving an Integrated Observing System Science-driven requirements based on the need for climate-quality data products, including Adherence to climate monitoring principles Use of climate models to assist in observing system design Protocols for validation of data assimilation and reanalysis Stabilizing and extending observing capabilities Research to operations transition for satellites Completing, maintaining, and updating in situ networks New capabilities for new observations (e.g., ecosystems) and to integrate existing components Accelerating the deployment of components needed for decision support Elements associated with the near- term CCRI priorities and goals International collaboration

Continuing efforts in data management Full, open, and timely sharing of global change data Archiving of data in such a way as to allow easy access National and international standards Lowest possible cost The CCSP continues to advocate nationally and internationally for:

Communications Make CCSP science findings and products easily available to a diverse set of audiences. Disseminate the results of CCSP activities credibly and effectively

Implementation Status CCSP Interagency Committee includes 13 agencies and EOP liaisons Interagency Working Groups active or planned Budget inventory in preparation Lead agencies for products identified and “guidelines” under discussion Coordination, outreach, and other activities underway

A Sound Basis for Progress Created an end-to-end process for research, observation, modeling, and decision support Identified products and schedules to address the highest priority areas of uncertainty Planned assessment products with an “act - learn - act” approach toward decision support, commensurate with the scientific process itself Working to establish partnerships across government, the research community, and stakeholders