ECOSYSTEM SERVICES / BIOSECURITY FLAGSHIP Brendan Trewin | PhD Candidate Developing Spatially Explicit Network Models for the Management of Disease Vectors in Ecological Systems

Spatially Explicit Network Models for the Management of Disease Vectors | Brendan Trewin2 | To Explore: How best to construct network models as vector management tools? What is the appropriate scale to model disease vector movement? How does the ecology of the system influence the model development process? Bat Camps Aedes aegypti Rainwater Tank Flying-fox

Spatially Explicit Network Models for the Management of Disease Vectors | Brendan Trewin3 | Nodes Demographic Characteristics: Disease transmission Population growth rates Spatially explicit location Landscape Context: Represent Metapopulations

Spatially Explicit Network Models for the Management of Disease Vectors | Brendan Trewin4 | Links or Edges Landscape Context: Flows of Information Movement Characteristics: Dispersal Connectivity Distance

Spatially Explicit Network Models for the Management of Disease Vectors | Brendan Trewin5 | Ferrari, Priesser and Fitzpatrick 2014Lookingbill, Gardner, Ferrari and Keller 2010 Quantify landscape connectivity Identify pathways to invasion Global Information Systems Network simulation and analysis Identify landscape connectivity Dynamic network Spread of a forest pathogen Identify habitat patches

Spatially Explicit Network Models for the Management of Disease Vectors | Brendan Trewin6 | Grey Headed Flying Fox Black Flying Fox Spill over event Bat Camps

Spatially Explicit Network Models for the Management of Disease Vectors | Brendan Trewin7 | Urban habituation, ecological connectivity and epidemic dampening: the emergence of Hendra virus from flying foxes Plowright, et al 2011

Populations with ongoing hendra transmission Populations with ongoing hendra transmission Highly seasonal location Highly seasonal location Uncertain location due to environment and climate Uncertain location due to environment and climate Spatially Explicit Network Models for the Management of Disease Vectors | Brendan Trewin8 | Aedes aegypti Flying-Fox

Spatially Explicit Network Models for the Management of Disease Vectors | Brendan Trewin9 | Urban Rural Rural and urban populations Rural and urban populations

Spatially Explicit Network Models for the Management of Disease Vectors | Brendan Trewin10 | Spill Over Events Rural and urban populations Rural and urban populations Does not explore: Does not explore: -Foraging sites -Spill over events

Spatially Explicit Network Models for the Management of Disease Vectors | Brendan Trewin11 | Rural and urban populations Rural and urban populations Does not explore: Does not explore: -Foraging sites -Spill over events Distance between Distance between camps camps Probability of Probability of movement movement

Spatially Explicit Network Models for the Management of Disease Vectors | Brendan Trewin12 | In reality movement would be represented by large numbers of links and not solely measured by distance Rural and urban populations Rural and urban populations Does not explore: Does not explore: -Foraging sites -Spill over events Distance between Distance between camps camps Probability of Probability of movement movement Don’t link with spill Don’t link with spill over events over events

Spatially Explicit Network Models for the Management of Disease Vectors | Brendan Trewin13 | Dengue fever Brisbane Nouvelle- Calédonie

Spatially Explicit Network Models for the Management of Disease Vectors | Brendan Trewin14 | 1911 Imported Cases - Brisbane

Spatially Explicit Network Models for the Management of Disease Vectors | Brendan Trewin15 |

Populations with ongoing hendra transmission Highly seasonal location Uncertain location due to environment and climate Distance between camps Probability of movement Rainwater tanks Fixed and accurate spatial location Population growth rate Source or sink Spatially Explicit Network Models for the Management of Disease Vectors | Brendan Trewin16 | Aedes aegypti Flying-Fox

Spatially Explicit Network Models for the Management of Disease Vectors | Brendan Trewin17 | 0 200m

Spatially Explicit Network Models for the Management of Disease Vectors | Brendan Trewin18 | 0 200m

Spatially Explicit Network Models for the Management of Disease Vectors | Brendan Trewin19 | 0 200m

Spatially Explicit Network Models for the Management of Disease Vectors | Brendan Trewin20 | 0 200m

Spatially Explicit Network Models for the Management of Disease Vectors | Brendan Trewin21 | Populations with ongoing hendra transmission Highly seasonal location Uncertain location due to environment and climate Distance between camps Probability of movement Rainwater tanks Fixed and accurate spatial location Population growth rate Source or sink Dispersal kernel Influence of population size Landscape influences probability of interaction Aedes aegypti Flying-Fox

Spatially Explicit Network Models for the Management of Disease Vectors | Brendan Trewin22 | Sink Source Exposed

Spatially Explicit Network Models for the Management of Disease Vectors | Brendan Trewin23 | Sink Source Exposed

Node Influence: Ability to target individual or groups of high risk nodes Measure of centrality Goal of vector management Connectivity: Scale not suitable for vector management Does not include spill over sites or foraging sites Hypothesis generating tool Spatially Explicit Network Models for the Management of Disease Vectors | Brendan Trewin 24 | Plowright, et al 2011

Spatially Explicit Network Models for the Management of Disease Vectors | Brendan Trewin 25 | Large contrasts between each network model relating to scale Flying-fox model would benefit from additional scales and more dynamic nodes/links for management application Mosquito model has a high resolution with plentiful data, which may be necessary to scale-up Hypothesis generating tool vs management tool?

Ecosciences/Biosecurity Brendan Trewin, Hazel Parry, Myron Zalucki, David Westcott and Nancy Schellhorn The Challenges of Developing Spatially Explicit Network Models for the Management of Disease Vectors in Ecological Systems w ECOSYSTEM SERVICES / BIOSECURITY FLAGSHIP Thank you INRM Scholarship