1 CASOS (July 2000) A decision process model mixing rational anticipations and social influences : the example of agri-environmental measure adoption in Breadalbane ESA (Scotland) Guillaume Deffuant, Frédéric Amblard, Nils Ferrand (Cemagref, France) Nigel Gilbert (university of Surrey, UK) Gérard Weisbuch (Ecole Normal Supérieure, France)

CASOS (July 2000) Agri-environmental measures + $$ Farmer Pilot zones from 1986 Pilot zones from 1986 Generalised to all Europe in 1992 Generalised to all Europe in 1992

CASOS (July 2000) European project First goal : evaluate the model on the past First goal : evaluate the model on the past + $$ Then evaluate prescriptive use Then evaluate prescriptive use Breadalbane ESA Scotland Breadalbane ESA Scotland

CASOS (July 2000) Breadalbane ESA 150 farms, mainly sheep, average size : 650 ha 150 farms, mainly sheep, average size : 650 ha 39 farmers interviewed 39 farmers interviewed 10 re-interviewed10 re-interviewed 10 interviews with institutional actors10 interviews with institutional actors First ESA : From 1986 to 1992 First ESA : From 1986 to 1992 Second ESA : From 1992 to 1999 Second ESA : From 1992 to 1999

CASOS (July 2000) Breadalbane ESA : implementation End 1986 : End 1986 : Press : first rough description of the measurePress : first rough description of the measure The measure is about landscape and biodiversityThe measure is about landscape and biodiversity

CASOS (July 2000) Breadalbane ESA : implementation End 1986 : End 1986 : SAC : contact 10 "leader" farmers and promote the measure SAC : contact 10 "leader" farmers and promote the measure More financial information More financial information

CASOS (July 2000) March 1987 : March 1987 : Organisation of the official presentation meeting Organisation of the official presentation meeting All farmers invitedAll farmers invited Participation 50%Participation 50% Breadalbane ESA : implementation

CASOS (July 2000) Breadalbane ESA : implementation The interested farmer calls SAC advisor The interested farmer calls SAC advisor SAC advisor comes to the farm and makes to ecological diagnosis SAC advisor comes to the farm and makes to ecological diagnosis The still interested farmer calls SAC advisor The still interested farmer calls SAC advisor The advisor comes to the farm and the farm plan is negotiated The advisor comes to the farm and the farm plan is negotiated From April 87 to End 92: From April 87 to End 92:

CASOS (July 2000) The model

CASOS (July 2000) The decision model : variables d a Uncertain anticipations of impacts (or impressions) Uncertain anticipations of impacts (or impressions) Income Income Motivations Motivations Independence Independence a d a d Nature Nature

CASOS (July 2000) The decision model : Interactions Before meeting F’ F aa’ FF’F’ aa’a’ aa d d’ dd After meeting d d’

CASOS (July 2000) The decision model : rational evaluation The impact on income is evaluated "rationally" with the advisor when the farm plan is established The calculation of this impact takes into account : –the size of the farm –the level payments –the level of the associated costs

CASOS (July 2000) The decision model : decision stages m.a < T 1 m.a < T 1 Farmer not interested by the measure. T 1 < m.a < T 2 T 1 < m.a < T 2 Interested, Discussions with colleagues m.a > T 2 m.a > T 2 Interested, willing to begin the procedure m.a - m r.d r >T 3 m.a - m r.d r >T 3 Ready to adopt can if procedure completed

CASOS (July 2000) Initialisation of anticipated impacts d a Uncertain anticipations (or impressions) Uncertain anticipations (or impressions) Income Income Motivations Motivations Independence Independence Nature Nature d a d a

CASOS (July 2000) Initialisation of the motivations Motivation distribution for interviewed farms Motivation distribution for interviewed farms Randomly affected to non interviewed farms Randomly affected to non interviewed farms

CASOS (July 2000) Social network link probability = exp (- D(F,F')) link probability = exp (- D(F,F')) Average link number : 4.8 Average link number : 4.8

CASOS (July 2000) Institutional messages d a d a d a Press Press Income Income Independence Independence Nature Nature d a d a SAC SAC

CASOS (July 2000) First results

CASOS (July 2000) Messages from the press First messages from SAC Meeting Beginning of advisor visits no interest discussing visit ready non adopter adopter Example of results

CASOS (July 2000) Average fitting the first adoption points number of adopters average data of adoption

CASOS (July 2000) Fitting first point and last point number of adopters average data of adoption

CASOS (July 2000) Conclusion Progressive refinement of the model : –institutional scenarios –dynamic model –more impacts and motivations Study for the use in a prospective purpose