Atmospheric Mercury Modeling Dr. Mark Cohen NOAA Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) College Park, MD, USA Meeting with John Sherwell, Power Plant Research.

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Atmospheric Mercury Modeling Dr. Mark Cohen NOAA Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) College Park, MD, USA Meeting with John Sherwell, Power Plant Research Program Maryland Department of Natural Resources April 2, 2013, NCWCP, College Park MD

April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory2  Trajectory-based Analysis  Meteorological Analysis  HYSPLIT-Hg – Great Lakes  HYSPLIT-Hg – Maryland  CMAQ-Hg – Li Pan  CAM-Chem-Hg -- Hang Lei this talk MODELING PRESENTATION OUTLINE

April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory3  Trajectory-based Analysis  Meteorological Analysis  HYSPLIT-Hg – Great Lakes  HYSPLIT-Hg – Maryland  CMAQ-Hg – Li Pan  CAM-Chem-Hg -- Hang Lei this talk MODELING PRESENTATION OUTLINE

4 When we see high concentrations of mercury, where did the air come from? Reactive Gaseous Mercury episode Beltsville, Maryland mercury site April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

5 Chesapeake Bay Baltimore Washington D.C. When we see high concentrations of mercury, where did the air come from? April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory6 Gridded Trajectory Frequency and Residence Time Analysis

Rolison, J.M., W.M. Landing, W. Luke, M. Cohen, V.J.M. Salters. Isotopic Composition of Species-Specific Atmospheric Hg in a Coastal Environment. Chemical Geology 336, 37-49, April 2, 20137NOAA Air Resources Laboratory Distinctly different air mass patterns with different isotopic GEM signatures Low d202Hg GEM samples appear associated with uniformly marine air masses Hg(II)(aq) photoreduction to Hg(0)(aq) and subsequent volatilization has been shown to exhibit mass dependent fractionation --> enrichment in light isotopes in product Hg(0) Thus, less Hg202, a heavier isotope, associated with the marine air masses

April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory8  Trajectory-based Analysis  Meteorological Analysis  HYSPLIT-Hg – Great Lakes  HYSPLIT-Hg – Maryland  CMAQ-Hg – Li Pan  CAM-Chem-Hg -- Hang Lei this talk MODELING PRESENTATION OUTLINE

Episode BV-20 episode analysis --> can we understand peaks?

South-west corner (km)Number of cellsResolution (km) Starting point relative to mother domain X-originY-originEastingNorthingX-directionY-direction D D D Projection center: 40N, 100W Standard latitude: 30N, 60N Layers: 43, with model top at 50 mb (1 st layer thickness is 33 m and 15 layers are below 850 mb) Domain configuration D01 D02 D03 10 from Fantine Ngan, Air Resources Laboratory

ANE1: base case (EDAS IC/BC, 3D FDDA) ANE1: base case (EDAS IC/BC, 3D FDDA) ANE13: ANE1 + OBJ IC/BC + SFC FDDA + obs nudging ANE23: ANE13 but PX LSM, AMC2 Time series at Beltsville site 11

April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory12

April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory13  Trajectory-based Analysis  Meteorological Analysis  HYSPLIT-Hg – Great Lakes  HYSPLIT-Hg – Maryland  CMAQ-Hg – Li Pan  CAM-Chem-Hg -- Hang Lei this talk MODELING PRESENTATION OUTLINE

Modeling Atmospheric Mercury Deposition to the Great Lakes. Final Report for work conducted with FY2010 funding from the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative. December 16, Mark Cohen, Roland Draxler, Richard Artz. NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, Silver Spring, MD, USA. 160 pages. Atmospheric_Mercury_Final_Report_2011_Dec_16.pdf _GLRI_NOAA_Atmos_Mercury_Report_Dec_16_2011.pptx 14 One-page summary: GLRI_Atmos_Mercury_Summary.pdf April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

2005 Atmospheric Mercury Emissions (Direct Anthropogenic + Re-emit + Natural) Policy-Relevant Scenario Analysis 15April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

To simulate the global transport of mercury, puffs are transferred to Eulerian grid after a specified time downwind (~2 weeks), and the mercury is simulated on that grid from then on… When puffs grow to sizes large relative to the meteorological data grid, they split, horizontally and/or vertically This is how we model the local & regional impacts. But for global modeling, puff splitting overwhelms computational resources 16

Modeled vs. Measured Wet Deposition of Mercury at Sites in the Great Lakes Region 17April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

18April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory Standard source locations, MDN sites, and mercury emissions in the Great Lakes region

Geographical Distribution of 2005 Atmospheric Mercury Deposition Contributions to Lake Erie Policy-Relevant Scenario Analysis 19 Keep track of the contributions from each source, and add them up April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

A tiny fraction of 2005 global mercury emissions within 500 km of Lake Erie Modeling results show that these “regional” emissions are responsible for a large fraction of the modeled 2005 atmospheric deposition Important policy implications! 20 Results can be shown in many ways… April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

21April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

22April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory23  Trajectory-based Analysis  Meteorological Analysis  HYSPLIT-Hg – Great Lakes  HYSPLIT-Hg – Maryland  CMAQ-Hg – Li Pan  CAM-Chem-Hg -- Hang Lei this talk MODELING PRESENTATION OUTLINE

Smith Mountain Lake Lake Anna MDN VA28 MDN VA08 MDN VA98 MDN MD08 MDN MD99 MDN PA00 MDN PA47 MDN PA60 MDN PA13 Camden Liberty Lake Reservoir Prettyboy Reservoir Deep Creek Lake Loch Raven Reservoir Tuckahoe Creek Watershed Blackwater Wildlife Refuge St. Mary’s River Watershed Rock Creek Watershed Savage River Reservoir Chesapeake Bay Canaan Valley Institute area and point receptors in and around Maryland in recent HYSPLIT-Hg modeling 24

Maryland-Region Area Receptors Included in Recent HYSPLIT-Hg Modeling Exercises 25

 These receptors – and numerous point receptors – in and around Maryland have been included in recent HYSPLIT-Hg modeling…  To date, not enough resources to provide computational intensity required to produce source-attribution estimates for these Maryland receptors…  However, could be carried out, and in doing so, can leverage earlier model runs, i.e., can use all the runs done for the Great Lakes analysis, and just need to add simulations from “standard sources” in the Maryland region. April 2, NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

27 Thanks! April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory