Climate and Agricultural Outlook for 2008/09 Johan van den Berg SANTAM AGRICULTURE

RSA: Rainfall (mm) for the period 1 July 2007 – 30 June 2008

RSA: Rainfall (July 07 – June 08) expressed as % of long term average rainfall

RSA: Rainfall expressed as % of long term average 1 November to 31 March La Nina % % % %

La Nina (2007/08)

El Nino RSA: Rainfall expressed as % of long term average 1 November to 31 March 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% % % %

El Nino (2006/07)

Neutral (2008/09)

Favourable for hurricane development

Nino regions Nino3.4

Average El Nino La Nina

Dry Wet Dry

2007/08

Tropical cyclone development

H L Cyclone Water = o C Water = o C Tropical cyclone

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Probability (%) for receiving at least median rainfall Oct 08Nov 08 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09

Individual localities

Grootfontein Namibia: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 days Good Dry Above normal Below normal 2008/09 Average

Vryburg: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 days Above normal Below normal 2008/09 Average

Clarens (Free State) : Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 days Above normal Below normal 2008/09 Average

Delmas: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 days Above normal Below normal 2008/09 Average

Prieska: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 days Above normal Below normal 2008/09 Average

Rustenburg: Probability (%) for at least 20mm per 10 day 2008/09 Average Above normal Below normal

Historic rainfall

RSA: Rainfall deviation from average (mm) DryWet Dry Rainfall deviation from average (mm) Seasons

DryWet Dry Rainfall deviation from average (mm) Seasons Free State: Rainfall deviation from average (mm)

DryWet Dry Rainfall deviation from average (mm) Seasons North West: Rainfall deviation from average (mm)

DryWet Dry Mpumalanga: Rainfall deviation from average (mm) Rainfall deviation from average (mm) Seasons

Climate change

Villiers: Average 12 month rainfall total per decade (mm)

Ottosdal: Average 12 month rainfall total per decade (mm)

Climate change Correlation of annual rainfall totals vs time (rainfall )

Maize Production

Soil moisture conditions: Difference 2008 vs 2007 (mm)

Method: Yield simulation (Using a crop growth model) to generate historic yields Use current inputs Use historic climate data Use soil inputs Determine the production risk of current production systems in terms of historic climate data or climate history What is the production risk and the risk for not reaching margins like recovery of input cost

Lichtenburg: Simulated yields (kg/ha) over time Red: Yields not higher than long term average (target yield) Blue: Target yield according to climate for each specific season (perfect world)

Lichtenburg: Cumulative distribution of yields over time (57 years) Interpretation: Probability (%) for not reaching certain yields 20% of years not reaching 2000kg/ha

What is the risk for not recovering input cost? Assumption Input cost between R1400 (west) and R1700(east) per hectare Input cost = fertilizer, fuel, seed, weed- and pesticides, insurance, labour. For Lichtenburg: R1400 per ton for target yield of 3.5 t/ha = R4900 per ha

Lichtenburg: Margins taking input cost into consideration (R/ha) over time Maize price (farm gate) = R1700/ton

Lichtenburg: Margins taking input cost into consideration (R/ha) over time 28% of years in loss situation Maize price (farm gate) = R1700/ton

Lichtenburg: Margins taking input cost into consideration (R/ha) over time Maize price (farm gate) = R2000/ton

Lichtenburg: Margins taking input cost into consideration (R/ha) over time Maize price (farm gate) = R2300/ton

Profitability over time PriceR1700R2000R3000 Margin R/ha R457R1 402R2 348 Margin (R/ha) (Total 57 years) R26 066R79 954R

Risk for not recovering input cost R1700/ton maize price Maize area

Risk for not recovering input cost R2000/ton maize price Maize area

Area Area trend RSA Maize area planted

Yield Yield trend RSA Maize yields

RSA area planted (million ha) Imports (million tons) RSA Wheat

Areas will decline annually because new areas will become marginal (non-profitable) Food security ?

Soil potential for Southern Africa

Rainfall (mm) for Africa

Summary 1.Neutral to slight La Nina expected 2.Rainfall – normal to above normal 3.Late start of rainfall season but above normal rainfall for November expected 4.Midsummer dry spell expected (Dec/Jan) 5.Crop production under pressure – Threat to food security over the medium to long term 6.Eastern production areas may suffer to plant within planting window

Thanks

Contact Detail: Johan van den Berg Product Development: Santam Agriculture