Climate Change and Rainfall Changing patterns of rainfall and the consequences in Hungary, Germany and Scotland.

Climate change Global warming is the rise in the average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans since the late 19th century Global warming is the rise in the average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans since the late 19th century Earth's mean surface temperature has increased by about 0.8 °C. Earth's mean surface temperature has increased by about 0.8 °C.

Effects An increase in global temperature include a rise of the sea level. Change in the amount and pattern of precipitation. A probable expansion of subtropical deserts. The warming include a more frequent occurrence of extreme weather: 1.heat waves 2.droughts 3.heavy rain

Precipitation A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, and globally water vapour increases by 7% for every degree centigrade of warming Regions that are already wet are likely to get wetter and the dry regions of the subtropics are likely to get drier. It is likely that in a warmer climate heavy rainfall will increase and be produced by fewer more intense events. This could lead to longer dry spells and a higher risk of floods.

1838: A Historic Flood in Hungary

A historic flood in Hungary occurred in 1838, when the icy March waters destroyed 2,281 houses in Pest, and seriously damaged 827 others. Only 1,146 houses remained. In Buda, where many houses were built on hillsides, only 204 houses collapsed, and 262 were seriously damaged, with 2,023 houses remaining.

At that time, between 50,000 and 60,000 inhabitants became homeless, and 22,000 lost everything. Along the entire Hungarian stretch of the Danube, over 10,000 houses were destroyed, with about 4,000 houses badly damaged.

The flooded area of Budapest

“The trees of the island are almost invisible because of the flood.” (The picture was drawn about the Great Flooding from 1838)

Hunger-Rock

The Hunger-Rock is a stone in the Danube near Gellért-Hill. It got its name because it’s only visible when the water level is low.

The last time the rock was visible was in 2011.

North Sea flood of 1962 in Germany

The North Sea flood of 1962 was a natural disaster affecting mainly the coastal regions of Germany and in particular the city of Hamburg in the night from 16 February to 17 February In total, the homes of about 60,000 people were destroyed, and the death toll amounted to 315 in Hamburg.

The flood was caused by the Vincinette low- pressure system, approaching the German Bight from the southern Polar Sea. In Hamburg, on the river Elbe, but a full 100 km away from the coast, the residential area of Wilhelmsburg was most affected.

2002 – the „Century Flood“ of the rivers Elbe and Danube

The floods that hit Europe during August 2002 were part of a larger system that was also affecting Asia. Within Europe, however, the areas that sustained significant damage included the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Italy, Spain, Germany, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, and Ukraine. Several rivers in the region, including the Vltava, Elbe and Danube reached record highs.

Elbe Elbe In Germany an area of ha was flooded and the damage caused by the flood was about 15 billion Euros and 21 persons died in Saxonia. In Czechoslovakia 17 persons died and the damage was about 3,3 billion Euro

Dresden Railway Station Danube next to Vienna

Scotland and its Weather

Scottish Weather and Water Levels River levels SEPA monitors water level at 392 sites throughout Scotland. Most of the stations are sited on rivers; however data from several tide and loch level recorders are also displayed. Fishermen, canoeists and other river users can use the information on these pages to help with planning their river use.

Data collection River level data is collected at gauging stations using a variety of electronic sensors and data loggers.

Weather in Thornhill ( )

Recent Changes in Scottish Weather Tayside, Angus and Dundee, Findhorn Nairn Moray and Speyside are all currently at risk of flooding. This is a recent change as normally lower parts of Scotland receive more rain. Recently in Scotland the weather has been a lot drier than usual, although in many parts of the country rainfall is still regular.

Solutions Levees and embankments – prevent rivers from overflowing Planting trees – increases interception of rain water Reservoirs – to store floodwater Dams – to hold back floodwater Build flood walls

Heatwave of 2003 All over Europe countries were hit with much warmer temperatures than usual. Hungary, Germany and Scotland were all affected by the heat – some effects were good but most of them were negative. In Germany, a record temperature of 40.4 °C was recorded. With only half the normal rainfall, rivers were at their lowest that century and ships couldn’t travel on many rivers.

Average temperature Temperature 2003

In Hungary, the heat ripened the grapes faster and therefore better wine was made. This meant that the wine from Hungary won many awards that year. In Scotland, the temperature during the summer was higher than usual, however rain was still present throughout the year. Scotland broke its highest temperature record with 32.9 °C. According to the BBC around 2,000 more people died than usual in the United Kingdom during the 2003 heat wave.

Heat wave of 2006 Drought was an issue in many parts of the United Kingdom after a very dry winter. There was warning of drought occurring from the early months of Following the dry winter, with extreme temperatures occurring in the country and little rain, increasing strain was put on water supplies, and hose-pipe bans were issued in many counties.

The Met Office confirmed that July 2006 was the warmest month on record across the UK, and a number of regional records were also broken. In Germany most of the July temperature average records were broken. In Mannheim/Ludwigshafen a July average of 26 °C was recorded, which means a temperature anomaly of 6 °C, which is a new record for a monthly average in Germany. Hungary was also affected by the heatwave with warmer temperatures than usual.

Consequences of Climate Change Increased frequency of high temperature extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation Increase in tropical cyclone intensity Precipitation decreases in subtropical land regions Diminishing water resources in many areas, like the Mediterranean Basin

Thank you for your attention

Sources stal_flooding.aspx stal_flooding.aspx potsdam/projektseminar-ws analyse-institutioneller- anpassungsstrategien/climate-change-in-germany.pdf potsdam/projektseminar-ws analyse-institutioneller- anpassungsstrategien/climate-change-in-germany.pdf