Internasjonalt forskningssamarbeid om skred; SafeLand – et nytt stort integrert forskningsprosjekt i EUs 7. Rammeprogram Bjørn Kalsnes Nestleder International Centre for Geohazards Skred og vassdragsdagene, Tromsø, 9 juni 2009

INTERNATIONAL CENTRE for GEOHAZARDS A Norwegian Centre of Excellence established in 2003 by the Reseach Council of Norway 10 years duration Budget : ~ NOK 20 – 25 mill. / year (including in-kind contribution of partners, Contribution from Research Council of Norway = NOK 12 mill. / year)

HOST ORGANISATION Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) PARTNERS University of Oslo (UiO) NTNU Geological Survey of Norway (NGU)

ICG’s current research topics Proj. No.Title 2 Risk and vulnerability analysis for geohazards 3 Earthquake hazard, risk and loss 4 Stability of rock slopes 5 Geomechanical modelling 6 Offshore geohazards 7 Slope instability assessment and hazard zonation 10 Tsunami modelling 12 Remote sensing, monitoring and early warning systems Theme 1 Geophysics for geohazards Theme 4 Prevention and Mitigation

Landslide risk research project - SafeLand EC Call 2008 – Prediction of triggering and risk assessment for landslides (in a global change perspective) 25 partners from 12 countries Coordinated by ICG Total funding 6.6 mill € Project duration 1May May 2012

Call Title: Prediction of triggering and risk assessment for landslides –Taking into account climate change and human activity –Forecast landslide hazards and detect risk zones –Quantify triggering mechanisms, conditions and thresholds –Develop generic QRA frame for a better risk management –Help to choose an appropriate set of mitigation and prevention measure

Main aims of SafeLand Evaluate the changes in landslide risk pattern in Europe caused by climate change, changes in demography and human activity, and policy changes Provide policy-makers, public administrators, researchers, scientists, educators and other stakeholders with improved methods for the assessment and quantification of risk associated with landslides Provide guidelines for choosing the most approriate risk management strategies

Global change = Climate change + Changes in demography I. Changes in demography United Nations estimate: The World population will reach 9 billion by the year In 2007 for the first time in history more than 50% of the World population were living in cities.

Population trends in Europe United Nations’ prognosis of the total population and urban Population in Europe until the Year 2050

II. Climate change: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

Significantly increased precipitation in eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia. The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas - consistent with warming and increases of atmospheric water vapour Very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent Likely that future tropical cyclones will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

Other factors affecting landslide risk Changing land-use (meadows, pastures, abandoned lands, forests) which may influence the soil moisture availability. Changes in vegetation species, vegetation cover and vegetation root characteristics (human-induced or climate- induced); deforestation and timber harvesting. Expansion of new developments and facilities (roads, train lines, buildings) which may change slope geometry or hydrology. Advances in landslide science, in particular monitoring and remote sensing technologies, early warning systems, and basic understanding of landslide mechanisms.

SafeLand is organised in five Techincal Areas (+ 3 non- technical ones), and 21 Work Packages

Area 1 - Landslide triggers and run-out 1.Identification of mechanisms and triggers (UNIMIB) 2.Geomechanical analyses of weather-induced triggering processes (AMRA) 3.Statistical studies of thresholds for precipitation- induced landslides (ICG) 4.Landslides triggered by anthropogenic factors (ICG) 5.Run-out models (FUNAB) 6.Identification of models best suited for QRA (AMRA)

Which climate indices are relevant for landslide triggering? Water is the main culprit. Intensity and duration of precipitation, air-temperature, air-humidity and wind speed (governing snow-melt) are some of the relevant factors associated with triggering of landslides. Precipitation-induced landslides are usually triggered during rare events at rainfall intensities with return period of 50 to 200 years. The duration of the rainfall influences the depth of the sliding surface, as the rainfalls with longer duration will infiltrate deeper into the soil and cause slides at greater depths.

Which climate indices are relevant for landslide triggering? The characterisation of extreme precipitation events is typically done on the basis of daily rainfall data using the following indices: RX1day: annual maximum 1-day precipitation RX5day: annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation R10mm: annual count of days when precipitation > 10 mm R20mm: annual count of days when precipitation > 20 mm R95p: annual total precipitation when rainfall > 95 th percentile R99p: annual total precipitation when rainfall > 99 th percentile Are these the relevalant indices that should be focused on in SafeLand?

Area 2 - QRA 1.Harmonisation and development of procedures for quantifying landslide hazard (UPC) 2.Vulnerability to landslides (AUTh) 3.Development of procedures for QRA at regional and European scale (UPC) 4.Identification of landslide hazard and risk “hotspots” areas (ICG)

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of landslides or slope failures To evaluate the necessity of risk mitigation, one must first quantify the risk: –(1) What can cause harm? → threat identification –(2) How often? → landslide occurrence frequency (hazard) –(3) What can go wrong? → consequence of landslide –(4) How bad? → severity of the consequence –(5) So what? → acceptability of landslide risk –(6) What should be done? → landslide risk management

Area 3 - Global change scenarios 1.Climate change scenarios for selected regions in Europe (MPG) 2.Human activity and demography scenarios (BRGM) 3.Landslide risk evolution in selected ”hotspot” areas (BRGM)

In case study areas in climate scenarios at 10km x 10km grid will be evaluated.

Global change = Climate change + Changes in demography New risk map in Year 20xx Hazard evolution Exposure evolution Vulnerability evolution 2008 Risk map

Area 4 – Monitoring technology 1.Short-term weather forecasting for shallow landslide protection (CMCC) 2.Remote sensing technologies for landslide detection (UNIFI) 3.Evaluation and development of reliable procedures and technologies for early warning (GSA)

Area 5 – Risk management 1.Toolbox for landslide hazard and risk mitigation and prevention measures (ICG) 2.Stakeholder process for choosing an appropriate set of mitigation and prevention measures (IIASA)

Definition of Risk R = H. E. V Risk = Hazard x Consequences H = Hazard (temporal probability of a threat) E = Value of element(s) at risk V = Vulnerability of element(s) at risk

Landslide risk management framework (JTC1 experts)

Vulnerability Natural science perspective: Physical vulnerability of the elements at risk Social science approach: Attention is directed to the underlying structural factors that reduce the capacity of the human system to cope with a range of hazards

Risk Management Define acceptable risk criteria. If estimated risk is less than the acceptable risk, do nothing. If estimated risk is greater than the acceptable risk, then Implement measures to reduce the risk (mitigation), or Redefine the acceptable risk criteria.

Risk management objectives Propose mitigation and prevention measures, and produce harmonised toolbox of technically and economically appropriate (and innovative) prevention and mitigation measures based on experience and expert judgement Develop a risk-communication and stakeholder-led participatory process for choosing the prevention and mitigation measures that are most appropriate from the technical, economic, environmental and social perspectives

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