Historical Texas Drought Update LCRA Firm Water Customer Meeting October 27, 2011 Bob Rose, LCRA Meteorologist
Worst Drought in Texas History “This is state’s most severe one-year drought in recorded history” John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas State Climatologist. Driest October-September on record with 7.18 inches. Normal is Record low was 7.35 inches Oct 1901-Sep 1902.
7.18 in in. Texas Rainfall, Oct.-Sep.
Austin’s Driest 12-Month Period in History 1.OCT TO SEP JAN TO DEC OCT TO SEP OCT TO SEP MAY 1977 TO APR NOV TO OCT JUN TO MAY SEP TO AUG SEP TO AUG OCT TO SEP JUL TO JUN
Rainfall Oct 2010-Sep 2011
Rainfall Departure from Normal October 2010-September 2011
Unprecedented Summer Heat!! !
Temperature Departure from Normal, 6/1-8/31
Unprecedented Summer Heat Second hottest summer ever recorded, for any state. Average temperature 86.7 degrees. (Oklahoma was first with 86.8) Austin recorded its hottest April, July, August and September on record. June was second hottest. Austin recorded 90 days at or above 100 degrees. 165 days at or above 90 degrees.
Rainfall, October 7-9
Going into Second Year of La Niña January 6th October 24th
Typical Patterns Associated with La Niña
La Nina
WetDry
Temperature Precipitation
NWS Winter into Spring Rainfall Outlook
Drought Outlook through January
Jan-March Anomalies Based on 2 nd Year La Niña
April-May Anomalies Based on 2 nd Year La Niña
June-Aug Anomalies Based on 2 nd Year La Niña
Ending Drought in 1 Month
Rain Needed to End the Drought in 6 Months
The 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season
An Active Season, but Not for Texas
Take Home Points No clear end in sight to the ongoing drought; could last well into Scattered rains possible this fall and winter but not heavy enough to temper the drought. Intense droughts are hard to break. Tropical storms rains now not likely. La Niña is back. Late fall and winter expected to be drier than normal. Dry years interspersed with wet years.
Bob Rose Meteorologist, LCRA