Environmental Technical Working Group Meeting – IERM Discussion October 16, 2003

Overview Review/Discussion for PI Conceptual Model Diagrams Outstanding Issues Organized by Subgroup Discussion of Habitat Modeling and Correspondence/Categorization

IERM Conceptual Model – Lake Ontario

Wetland Plant Sub-Model (LO/USL) “Average” Wetland Topography Barrier Beach Drowned River Mouth Protected Embayment Unprotected Embayment LO/USL Water Level Time Series Maximum level in 2 consecutive quarter monthly periods Average water level for growing season Total Estimated Area of Plant Species (ha) Barrier Beach Drowned River Mouth Protected Embayment Unprotected Embayment LO/USL Wetland Area Barrier Beach Drowned River Mouth Protected Embayment Unprotected Embayment % Species Specific Elevations Barrier Beach Drowned River Mouth Protected Embayment Unprotected Embayment Sub-Model Inputs Sub-Model Outputs Feed to Faunal Sub-Models Wetland Plant PI Measures Wetland Plant Effects

Fish Sub-Model (LO/USL/LSL?) LO/USL Water Level Time Series Interpolated daily values Sub-Model Inputs LO/USL Water Temperature Time Series Daily values corrected based on depth/location Total Estimated Area of Plant Species (ha) Barrier Beach Drowned River Mouth Protected Embayment Unprotected Embayment Emergent Vegetation Habitat Variables (20-m grid) Submergent Vegetation Water Depth Substrate Population Models (life stages: #/ha) Northern pike Yellow perch Smallmouth bass Largemouth bass Local Habitat Patch WSA (ha) Guild-Based WSA for system (ha) Sub-Model Outputs Fish PI Measures Velocity Wetland Sub-Model Daily input Fish Effects

Wetland Bird Sub-Model (LO/USL) LO/USL Water Levels Quarter monthly time series Sub-Model Inputs Total Estimated Area of Plant Species (ha) Barrier Beach Drowned River Mouth Protected Embayment Unprotected Embayment Significant Trends in Population Potential (#) Various species Weighted Suitable Habitat (ha) Various species Significance of Recruitment Impacts? Various species Sub-Model Outputs Wetland Bird Effects Nest Losses (%) (Flooding) Various species Wetland Sub-Model H&H Inputs Wetland Bird PI Measures Diversity of Bird Assemblages (Shannon-Weaver Index)

Species-At-Risk Sub-Model (LO/USL) LO/USL Water Levels Quarter monthly time series Sub-Model Inputs Total Estimated Area of Plant Species (ha) Barrier Beach Drowned River Mouth Protected Embayment Unprotected Embayment Positive/Negative Impact on Habitat Various species Sub-Model Outputs Species-At-Risk Effects Wetland Sub-Model H&H Inputs Weighted Suitable Habitat (ha) Various species Species-At-Risk PI Measures

Herptile Sub-Model (LO/USL) LO/USL Water Levels Quarter monthly time series Sub-Model Inputs Total Estimated Area of Plant Species (ha) Barrier Beach Drowned River Mouth Protected Embayment Unprotected Embayment Turtle Survival (# or %) Sub-Model Outputs Herptile Effects Wetland Sub-Model H&H Inputs Weighted Suitable Habitat (ha) Various species Herptile PI Measures Positive/Negative Impact on Habitat Supply Various species Nest/Egg Survival (# or %)

Muskrat Sub-Model (LO/USL) LO/USL Water Levels Fall variability (?) Winter variability (?) Sub-Model Inputs Significant loss of muskrats based on threshold? Sub-Model Outputs Muskrat PI Measures H&H Inputs Muskrat House Flooding/ Stranding Potential (% loss?) Muskrat Effects

Dabbling Duck Sub-Model (LSL) LSL Water Levels Quarter monthly time series Sub-Model Inputs Total Estimated Area of Plant Species/Classes (ha) Sub-Model Outputs Dabbling Duck Effects Wetland Sub-Model H&H Inputs Brooding Success Migration Success Nest Survival (% survival) Total Suitable Habitat Supply/Area (ha) Significant Effects On Population Dabbling Duck PI Measures Significant Effects?

Summary of Outstanding Issues Wetland Plants  Connecting plant community results to faunal sub- models / ca  Understanding potential extent of wetland evolution in LSL (Morin) Fish  Streamlining population modeling approaches for LO, USL, and LSL (Minns/Morin/Farrell)  Availability of 100-year temperature time series  Refining data/approach for lakewide suitable habitat GIS-based computations  Tying in fish migration study (DeLafontaine)

Summary of Outstanding Issues Wetland Birds  Reducing list of key habitat/hydrological variables to be included  Connecting nest losses (due to flooding) to significant effects on productivity Dabbling Ducks  Importance of long-term changes in habitat  Study only includes LSL  Rationale for exclusion of dabbling duck predictions for LO and USL?

Summary of Outstanding Issues Species-At-Risk  Reducing list of species to be modeled (already done for lower river)  Use of “hot spots” vs. overall impact on habitat Muskrats  Defining direct water level impacts on flooding/ freezing, etc.  Extending to lower river model  Cattail herbivory feedback? Herptiles  Identifying specific habitat/hydrological variables to be included

General IERM/SVM Logistical Issues Merging calculations for LO and USL with LSL 2-dimensional model (Morin) Complexity and computer run-time for:  Lower river model  GIS-based habitat calculations for LO/USL Refining significance of effects – “meaningful” output for SVM