1 The Evolution of the Recent Atmospheric Methane Budget Lori Bruhwiler, Ed Dlugokencky, Steve Montzka, Pieter Tans Earth System Research Laboratory Boulder,

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 1 Greenhouse gases – What we do well and what we need to.

Advertisements

Increasing Wetland Emissions of Methane From A Warmer Artic: Do we See it Yet? Lori Bruhwiler and Ed Dlugokencky Earth System Research Laboratory Boulder,

Observations show that the increase of carbon dioxide is fully caused by human activities Pieter P. Tans NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Boulder,

Simulations and Inverse Modeling of Global Methyl Chloride 1 School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology 2 Division of Engineering.

Brooks Range, AK Global measurements of atmospheric gases and aerosols Amazon Basin, Arctic Ocean measurements, Steven C. Wofsy.

FACTORS GOVERNING THE SEASONAL VARIABILITY OF ATMOSPHERIC CARBONYL SULFIDE Parv Suntharalingam Harvard/Univ. of East Anglia A.J. Kettle, S. Montzka, D.

GERFS1 Top-down approach to estimation of the regional carbon budget in West Siberia S. Maksyutov (1) T. Machida, K. Shimoyama, N.Kadygrov, A. Itoh (1)

The Atmosphere: Oxidizing Medium In Global Biogeochemical Cycles EARTH SURFACE Emission Reduced gas Oxidized gas/ aerosol Oxidation Uptake Reduction.

Interannual variability in CO2 fluxes derived from 64-region inversion of atmospheric CO2 data Prabir K. Patra*, Shamil Maksyutov*, Misa Ishizawa*, Takakiyo.

REFERENCES Maria Val Martin 1 C. L. Heald 1, J.-F. Lamarque 2, S. Tilmes 2 and L. Emmons 2 1 Colorado State University 2 NCAR.

CO 2 fertilization (increased water use efficiency). Plants take in carbon dioxide and lose water vapor through small pores in their leaves called stomata.

Global simulation of H 2 and HD with GEOS-CHEM Heather Price 1, Lyatt Jaeglé 1, Paul Quay 2, Andrew Rice 2, and Richard Gammon 2 University of Washington,

Evolution of methane concentrations for the period : Interannual variability in sinks and sources J. Drevet, I. Bey, J.O. Kaplan, S. Koumoutsaris,

THE ATMOSPHERE: OXIDIZING MEDIUM IN GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES

Evaluating the Impact of the Atmospheric “ Chemical Pump ” on CO 2 Inverse Analyses P. Suntharalingam GEOS-CHEM Meeting, April 4-6, 2005 Acknowledgements.

This Week—Tropospheric Chemistry READING: Chapter 11 of text Tropospheric Chemistry Data Set Analysis.

Evaluating the Role of the CO 2 Source from CO Oxidation P. Suntharalingam Harvard University TRANSCOM Meeting, Tsukuba June 14-18, 2004 Collaborators.

Impact of Reduced Carbon Oxidation on Atmospheric CO 2 : Implications for Inversions P. Suntharalingam TransCom Meeting, June 13-16, 2005 N. Krakauer,

METHANE. TOPICS FOR TODAY 1.Why do we care about methane? 2.What are the sources and concentrations of methane in the atmosphere? 3.Uncertainties in the.

Part 7 Ocean Acidification, Weather and Melting Permafrost.

Global Carbon Cycle Feedbacks: From pattern to process Dave Schimel NEON inc.

Climate and the Carbon Cycle Gretchen Keppel-Aleks California Institute of Technology 16 October 2010.

Carbon Dioxide and Climate Pieter Tans NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Boulder, Colorado National Science Teachers Association National Conference.

Global Climate Impacts of Thawing Permafrost National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado Tingjun Zhang Kevin Schaefer Tim Schaefer Lin Liu.

Fires and the Contemporary Global Carbon Cycle Guido van der Werf (Free University, Amsterdam, Netherlands) In collaboration with: Jim Randerson (UCI,

1 Global modelling of methane and wetlands: Past, present and future. Nic Gedney (Met Office, Hadley Centre (JCHMR)) (Pete Cox, Hadley Centre and Chris.

ICDC7, Boulder, September 2005 CH 4 TOTAL COLUMNS FROM SCIAMACHY – COMPARISON WITH ATMOSPHERIC MODELS P. Bergamaschi 1, C. Frankenberg 2, J.F. Meirink.

Weather Condition of the atmosphere at any particular time and place Air temperature, air pressure, humidity, clouds, precipitation, visibility, wind Climate.

The seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric CO 2 is simulated using best available estimates of surface carbon fluxes and the MATCH atmospheric.

A Decline in the Northern Hemisphere CO 2 Sink from John Miller 1, Pieter Tans 1, Jim White 2, Ken Masarie 1, Tom Conway 1, Bruce Vaughn 2,

Page 1© Crown copyright WP4 Development of a System for Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation Richard Betts.

Results from the Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System (CCDAS) 3 FastOpt 4 2 Marko Scholze 1, Peter Rayner 2, Wolfgang Knorr 1 Heinrich Widmann 3, Thomas.

TOP-DOWN CONSTRAINTS ON REGIONAL CARBON FLUXES USING CO 2 :CO CORRELATIONS FROM AIRCRAFT DATA P. Suntharalingam, D. J. Jacob, Q. Li, P. Palmer, J. A. Logan,

Spatial and temporal patterns of CH 4 and N 2 O fluxes from North America as estimated by process-based ecosystem model Hanqin Tian, Xiaofeng Xu and other.

Kaitlyn Steele Bryan Duncan, NASA-GSFC Juying Warner, UMBC-JCET Eric Nielsen, NASA-GSFC Research and Discover 2010 Surface [CH 4 ] in NASA GEOS-5 CCM.

Modeling Modes of Variability in Carbon Exchange Between High Latitude Ecosystems and the Atmosphere Dave McGuire (UAF), Joy Clein (UAF), and Qianlai.

C. Sweeney 1, A. Karion, D.W.Guenther 1, S. E. Wolter 1, D. Neff 1, P.M. Lang 2, M.J. Heller 1, T. Conway 2, E.J. Dlugokencky 2, P. Novelli 2, L. Bruhwiler.

Methane Emission from Natural Wetlands in Northern Mid and High Latitudes since 1980s Xiaofeng Xu 1, Hanqin Tian 1, Vivienne Payne 2, Janusz Eluszkiewicz.

Source vs. Sink Contributions to Atmospheric Methane Trends:

HYMN Hydrogen, Methane and Nitrous oxide: Trend variability, budgets and interactions with the biosphere GOCE-CT TM4 Year 2004 and sensitivity.

Global trends in CH 4 and N 2 O Matt Rigby, Jin Huang, Ron Prinn, Paul Fraser, Peter Simmonds, Ray Langenfelds, Derek Cunnold, Paul Steele, Paul Krummel,

Regional CO 2 Flux Estimates for North America through data assimilation of NOAA CMDL trace gas observations Wouter Peters Lori Bruhwiler John B. Miller.

HYMN Hydrogen, Methane and Nitrous oxide: Trend variability, budgets and interactions with the biosphere GOCE-CT WP5 activities Michiel van.

Satellite data constraints on the seasonal methane budget. A.Anthony Bloom 1*, Kevin Bowman 1, Meemong Lee 1, John Worden 1, Alex Turner 2, Daniel Jacobs.

Land cover & fire at high latitudes: model-data comparison and model modification NCEO Land Science Meeting, February 2012, Sheffield, UK E.Kantzas,

Figure 1: Global time series plots of CH 4 and δ 13 C of CH 4 from The recent rise in CH 4 is concurrent with a decrease in δ 13 C of CH 4.

Quantifying the decrease in anthropogenic methane emissions in Europe and Siberia using modeling and atmospheric measurements of carbon dioxide and methane.

10-11 October 2006HYMN kick-off TM3/4/5 Modeling at KNMI HYMN Hydrogen, Methane and Nitrous oxide: Trend variability, budgets and interactions with the.

Stratospheric Methane Steve Rieck. Introduction CH 4 is emitted from natural and anthropogenic sources Has a long lifetime (8.6 years) Relatively important.

1 UIUC ATMOS 397G Biogeochemical Cycles and Global Change Lecture 14: Methane and CO Don Wuebbles Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois,

Dylan Millet Harvard University with D. Jacob (Harvard), D. Blake (UCI), T. Custer and J. Williams (MPI), J. de Gouw, C. Warneke, and J. Holloway (NOAA),

Climatic implications of changes in O 3 Loretta J. Mickley, Daniel J. Jacob Harvard University David Rind Goddard Institute for Space Studies How well.

Observational Constraints on the Global Methane Budget Ed Dlugokencky NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Global Monitoring Division Boulder, Colorado.

Fundamental Dynamics of the Permafrost Carbon Feedback Schaefer, Kevin 1, Tingjun Zhang 1, Lori Bruhwiler 2, and Andrew Barrett 1 1 National Snow and Ice.

Quantifying methane emissions from North America Daniel Jacob with Alex Turner, Bram Maasakkers, Jianxiong Sheng, Melissa Sulprizio.

AN ATMOSPHERIC CHEMIST’S VIEW OF THE WORLD FiresLand biosphere Human activity Lightning Ocean physics chemistry biology.

The Double Dividend of Methane Control Arlene M. Fiore IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria January 28, 2003 ANIMALS 90 LANDFILLS 50 GAS 60 COAL 40 RICE 85 TERMITES.

Fires and Variability in the Global Carbon Cycle Jim Randerson Department of Earth System Science University of California Collaborators: Guido van der.

What have we learned from three decades of atmospheric CH 4 measurements? E. Dlugokencky 1, M. Crotwell 1,2, A. Crotwell 1,2, P.M. Lang 1, K.A. Masarie.

Climate Change Overview: Key Concepts. Climate vs. Weather What is weather? – Conditions of the atmosphere over a short period of time (e.g. day- to-day).

ESF workshop on methane, April 10-12, years of methane : from global to regional P. Bousquet, S. Kirschke, M. Saunois, P. Ciais, P. Peylin, R.

PKU-LSCE winter shool, 14 October 2014 Global methane budget : The period Philippe Bousquet 1, Robin Locatelli 1, Shushi Peng 1, and Marielle.

HYMN: Hydrogen, Methane and Nitrous oxide: Trend variability, budgets and interactions with the biosphere GOCE-CT TM4 model evaluations

27-28/10/2005IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop Inverse Modeling of CO Emissions Results for Biomass Burning Gabrielle Pétron National Center.

Increasing Levels of Atmospheric Methane Jordan Simpkins EAS 4803 Spring 2009.

CH19: Carbon Sinks and Sources

GLOBAL BUDGET OF ATMOSPHERIC ACETONE

CH19: Carbon Sinks and Sources

The Double Dividend of Methane Control

Climatic implications of changes in O3

Presentation transcript:

1 The Evolution of the Recent Atmospheric Methane Budget Lori Bruhwiler, Ed Dlugokencky, Steve Montzka, Pieter Tans Earth System Research Laboratory Boulder, Colorado Elaine Matthews NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies New York, NY

2 CarbonTracker - CH 4

3 CarbonTracker-CO 2

4 Fluxes We Estimate: Terrestrial Biosphere Oceans Fluxes We “Know”: Fossil Fuels Photochemistry: None Measurement Sites ~100 Coal Production, Oil/Gas Leaks Animals, Waste, Rice,Wetlands Termites, Oceans,Soils, Others None Reaction with OH (and Cl) <100

5 Co-Located Distributed and Point Sources (Natl. Geographic, June 08)

6 Observed Global Growth Rate Methane could be approaching steady state (Dlugokencky et al., GRL, 2003) even though it is suspected that some sources are increasing. Why is growth slowing? What causes variability? What happened in 2007?

7 Optimized 2001 Emissions: 526Tg/yr (Bergamaschi,2002) Coal30 (TgCH4/yr) Oil/Gas50 Enteric Fermentation/Manure100 Rice59 Biomass Burning32 Waste74 Wetlands174 Wild Animals5 Termites19 Soil-38 Oceans17 Coal30 (TgCH4/yr) Oil/Gas50 Enteric Fermentation/Manure100 Rice59 Biomass Burning32 Waste74 Wetlands174 Wild Animals5 Termites19 Soil-38 Oceans17

88 Interannual Variability From Emission Processes

9 WetlandsWetlands ~175 Tg/yr

10 WetlandsWetlands Area: 5.6x10 6 km 2 (4% Global Land Surface) Boreal Wetlands: 50% of global wetland area, 25% CH 4 global wetland emission Temperature-Regulated Seasonal (Freeze, Thaw) High Organic Matter (Peat) Tropical/Subtropical Wetlands: 40% of global wetland area, 65% CH 4 wetland emission Precipitation-Regulated Seasonal (Flooding, Water Table Rise)

11 Regression calculation used in TM5 :  Flux =   T +   P (  T - GISS Surface Temperature Analysis ) (  P - GPCC Global Precipitation) How well will it agree with atmospheric observations?

12 FireFire ~30Tg/yr

13 Biomass Burning Emissions: Global Fire Emissions Database (GFEDv2) Burned area/fire locations obtained from MODIS Vegetation and soil biomass obtained using the CASA Biosphere model Giglio et al., 2006 Transport the Emissions with TM5

14 Observed CH 4 Growth Rate (ppb/yr) (Figure by K. Masarie)

15 Observed CO Growth Rate (ppb/yr) (data: P. Novelli)

16

17

18 OCOC August 2007 mm/month Wetland Emission Module

19 Tg CH Wetland Emissions(Annual Total) Eurasia: 8Tg N America: 3Tg

20 Modeled and Observed CH 4 Anomalies Wetlands+Biomass Burning

21 PermafrostDegradation?

22

2323 Interannual Variability From Chemical Loss Processes

24

25

26 But 2% is still ~10Tg! (Source: S. Montzka, ESRL)

2727 Long-Term Trends

28 Where Did It All Go?

29 Coal Production (Source: BP)

30 Simulated Methane from Coal Production

31 Methane Gradients from Changes in Coal Emissions

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39 Prototype CarbonTracker-CH 4 : Priors Bergamaschi et al. (2002) sources Large region inversion using network obs. Coal, Oil/Gas Enteric Fermentation, Wild Animals, Termites Rice, Wetlands, Biomass Burning Waste Soil Uptake, Oceans Photochemical Loss Repeating Seasonal Cycle, Optimized Using CH 3 CCl 3

40 Prototype CarbonTracker-CH 4 : Inverse 121 parameters (Scalar Multipliers of Fluxes) Land:12 regions x 10 processes Ocean:1 regions Prior Uncertainty75% Sites83 Active sites 57 Surface sites 24 Aircraft profile locations 2 Observatories

41 Coal Wetlands Waste

4242 MLO Obs. Posterior ppb

43 ConclusionsConclusions 1) We need to track the sources/sinks of atmospheric methane because we don’t understand its budget! 2) A prototype of CarbonTracker-CH 4 exists and is being evaluated. 3) Work is proceeding on developing/identifying improved models for prior fluxes. 4) CarbonTracker-CH4 could provide an early indication of methane release from destabilizing Arctic permafrost.