MAR 2011MEGAMORPHOSIS II - MUMBAI. CORE ISSUES & FUTURE GROWTH.

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Presentation transcript:

MAR 2011MEGAMORPHOSIS II - MUMBAI

CORE ISSUES & FUTURE GROWTH

VISION & CONCEPT OPTIONS

THE REGIONAL CONCEPT PLAN

PROJECT MILESTONE Phase 0 Investigation Phase 1 Planning Strategy & Structure Development Phase 2 Draft Regional Plan Phase 3 Final Regional Plan Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Phase 4 Local Plan & Urban Design Mar 2010 Sep 2010 Project Duration of 66 weeks From March 2010 to July 2011 Phase 5 Implementation Strategy Phase 6 Final Submission Steering Committee / Stakeholders Meetings Draft/ Final Report Submission Apr 2010 Nov 2010 Apr 2011 Current Project Status

Vibrancy & Density Efficient but not sufficient public transport Magnificent but untapped heritage Slums & super luxury properties National Park, mangroves & polluted air Scenic waterfront & polluted water Resilient & Innovative The exciting Mumbai

EXPANDING ECONOMY & POPULATION Overall Demographic Profile: Expanding population from 25mil in 2008 to between 38 mil and 44 mil by 2052 Labour market rising to between 20.4 mil and 23.2 mil Growth Rate & Centre: CAGR-basis projection => GDP growth taken for entire block of years up to 2052 Anticipated faster growth rate in RoMMR than GM Increasing contribution to MMR GDP from RoMMR with more new developments GDP per capita rising to Rs 1mil by 2052 ScenariosGDP Growth RateGM to MMR Ratio MMRGMRoMMR Moderated Case 7%6.3%7.7% Base Case7.4%7%7.9% Stretched Case 9%8%10%

RISING DEMAND FOR WORK SPACES Sector Composition: Moving towards a more services led economy with high emphasis on skilled human capital => mirrored high rate of growth of 15% over past 7 years in the Business Services => consistent with Government’s initiatives to grow the IT/ITES, retail, financial services SOURCE: MTSU/ McKinsey 71% 27% 2% 75% 24.5% 0.5% 75.5% 24.3% 0.2% Projected Sectoral Composition of MMR’s GDP Labour Market Profile: Significant increase in tertiary employment by more than 3 times Secondary Sector increase by double Informal Sector reducing in size but still remaining Pointing to a consistent and high demand for commercial office and retail spaces in future

MORE AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEEDED Note: All rates are in Rs/ sq. ft. Rise in property rates is based on a high growth assumption for MMR

NEED FOR COMPREHENSIVE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM Public transport mode remains high at 78% Total trips in future will be almost 1.7 times to 2 times of the trip volume recorded in 2005 Hence, much more comprehensive road & rail networks are expected Domestic air travel demand could increase to 35mil passengers

PRESSING IMPROVEMENT TO INFRASTRUCTURE Estimated Water Demand (Basic hygiene)13,140 MLD15,523 MLD Estimated Water Demand (Best-in-class)15,372 MLD19,308 MLD 5,049 MLD (Commercial) 10,323 MLD (Residential) 7,241 MLD (Commercial) 12,068 MLD (Residential) Existing & Planned Water Supply9,902 MLD (by 2021) Water recycling for non-potable use 1,515 MLD (30% of commercial demand) 2,896 MLD (40% of commercial demand) Rainwater harvesting & gray water reuse 769 MLD (5% of overall demand) 1,545 MLD (8% of overall demand) Reduction in demand through water-saving device 1,537 MLD (10% of overall demand) 2,317 MLD (12% of overall demand) Reduction in demand through active leakage control & metering in the supply system 1,537 MLD (10% of overall demand) 1,931 MLD (10% of overall demand) Additional Water Supply Required112 MLD (1.1% of ext’g & planned supply) 605 MLD (6.1% of ext’g & planned supply) 1 extra Vihar Lake 5.5 times of Vihar Lake

PRESSING IMPROVEMENT TO INFRASTRUCTURE Sewerage Solid Waste

OVERALL BROAD LAND AREA REQUIREMENTS Existing Remarks Forest/wetland & water body 31% 1,350 sqkm 31% Forest, wetland and water body to be retained Agriculture/ waste /scrubland 54% 2,350 sqkm 39%29% Urbanized area (%) Area Density (ppl/sqkm) 15% 650 sqkm 40,000 <30% 1300 sqkm 27,000 <40% 1734 sqkm 23,000Shanghai City : 24,000 Housing & facilities40% 520 sqkm 40% 694 sqkm Industries, Logistics, Commercial & mix use space 20% 260 sqkm 20% 346 sqkm European cities: 30% US cities: 10% Singapore : 19% (future goal) Parkland (main recreational parks) 10% 130 sqkm 12% 208 sqkm Singapore : 20% (future goal) Infra/ utilities 25% 325 sqkm 23% 399 sqkm European cities: 18 % US cities: 36 % Singapore :22% (future goal) Special use (military & other special uses) 5 % 65 sqkm 5 % 87 sqkm

EVOLVING VISIONS Vision Mumbai by Bombay First and McKinsey Date of Publication: Sept ‘03 Region: Greater Mumbai Projection Year: 2013 Transforming Mumbai into a world class city Transforming Mumbai into a World Class City, by Chief Ministers’ Task Force, GoM Date of Publication: Feb ‘04 Region: Greater Mumbai Projection Year: 2013 Transforming Mumbai into a world class city with a vibrant economy and globally comparable quality of life for its citizens Business Plan for MMR by MMRDA and LEA Associates Date of Publication: Aug ‘07 Region: MMR Projection Year: 2032 Transforming MMR into a world class metropolis with a vibrant economy and globally comparable quality of life for all its citizens VISION FOR MMR 2032 Transforming MMR into a “World Class Metropolis” with a vibrant economy, a globally comparable quality of life and a healthy and attractive environment for all its residents VISION FOR MMR 2052 To promote MMR as a “Global City” which capitalizes on its unique identity; and is an international business hub, a leading technological innovator, a melting pot of local and cosmopolitan cultures and a centre of excellence for urban environmental management. VISION FOR MMR 2032 MMR a “World Class Metropolis” VISION FOR MMR 2052 MMR a “Global City”

* The Concept Plan for Mumbai Metropolitan Region is Voluminous. For Further Information Contact Bombay First Contact: /71