SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010 Sea Surface Temperature in the Coral Triangle Scott F. Heron, NOAA Coral Reef Watch presenting the work of many others Sea Surface Temperature in the Coral Triangle Scott F. Heron, NOAA Coral Reef Watch presenting the work of many others

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010 ERSST (2° grid ) HadISST (1° grid) Eakin et al. (2009) Long-term SST, >100km scale, monthly Heron et al. (2008)

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010 Regional trend (9 sites) ± °C/dec Global trend (50 sites) ± °C/dec (Eakin et al. 2009) Recent SST, ~50km scale, twice-weekly SST trend Peñaflor et al % reef pixels DHW > 0DHW ≥ 4 Peñaflor et al # stress events

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010 CT regions – SST, fish, combined Green and Mous 2008 Peñaflor et al. 2009

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010 New SST capacity, 11km scale, daily

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010 Recent SST, 4km scale, retrospective Strong et al Selig et al CoRTAD TSA

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May °C 3.48 °C Recent SST, 1km scale, daily imos.org.au

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010 Currents + Sea-level  connectivity  residence time  search and rescue  tidal variation  thermal capacitance MPA Modelling, 250m scale - Palau TC Low High  SST High Low

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010 MPA Modelling, 30m scale – Heron Island Regional Intermediate Local

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010 Climate Modelling, 30m downscaling – Heron Island Same spatial patterns Temperature increase (per climate model)

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010 Low chronic Low acute High chronic Low acute Low chronic High acute High chronic High acute acute stress chronic stress MPA design – satellite history Maximum of the Monthly Means Anomaly during bleaching Mumby et al., in review

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010 Low chronic Low acute Low chronic High acute High chronic High acute acute stress chronic stress MPA design – satellite history

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010 Low chronic Low acute Low chronic High acute acute stress chronic stress MPA design – satellite history

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010 Low chronic High acute acute stress chronic stress MPA design – satellite history

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010 acute stress chronic stress MPA design – satellite history

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010 chronic stress acute stress chronic acute MPA design – satellite history

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010 Thermal history for each site was determined Montastraea and gorgonian reefs were identified from the national habitat map 286 polygons were created containing these sites chronic acute MPA design – satellite history, Bahamas

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010 chronic acute 945 km Cowen R.K., et al. (2006) MPA design – satellite history + connectivity

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010 Ganachaud et al AR4 streamfunction changes A2 in 2090, Sverdrups

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010 Pacific Sea Level Anomalies C. Steinberg, pers. comm.

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010 Acknowledgements Craig Steinberg, AIMS Al Strong, NOAA CRW Mark Eakin, NOAA CRW