TEMPER survey design: Challenges and tools Inma Serrano Amparo González-Ferrer International Workshop on Methodological Challenges for the Study of Return and Circular Migration Madrid, January 2015

TEMPER survey Survey at origin (to be complemented with existing data at destination) Argentina, Romania, Senegal and Ukraine N = 1000 each aprox Will capture temporary migration (by definition), with possibility to capture some repeated/circular migrants Individuals in households with migrant experience Returnees Current migrants by proxy Leftbehinds (non-migrants)

Survey(s) in broader context Register Quantify flows & stocks -> patterns of circulation Characterize them (basic info) Less flexible, “imperfect” definitions Survey (Ideally using register data as sampling frames) More complex profiles & patterns of circulation Mechanisms: causes (selection, determinants…) & effect (impact, integration/ reintegration) Qualit (Ideally in dialogue with above) Target specific & hard to find profiles (e.g. seasonal) Describe in detail complex patterns of circulation Nuances of motivations, aspirations, rationales & assessment of experience

Objectives of TEMPER survey 1.Analyze selection into return (and circulation) Comparisons between: 1.current migrants & returnees 2.different types of returnees (timing, conditions of return...) 2.Analyze impact of return (net of migration) Comparisons: 1.returnees & current migrants 2.left-behinds of returnees & current migrants 3.returnees & (current migrants) & non-migrants 4.returnees & leftbehinds

Comparisons need multiple target subpopulations 1)Subpop1: returnees ---- repeated/circular 2)Subpop2: current migrants 3)Subpop3: left-behinds 4)Subpop4: non-migrants How to sample them? Identifiable only with information about/from other HH members

Minimal requirements for sampling 4 Subpops Question like... have you ever migrated abroad? a) No--- Non-migrant b) Yes--- 1.Returnee 2.Someone in HH has ever migrated? a) No “Pure” non-migrant b) Yes Non-migrant but Left-Behind 2. current migrants by proxy 3. More than once? a) 1st time returnee b) Repeated migrant-returnee 4. To the same country /which countries? Non-circular Circular

Limitations for proper sampling of the 4 Subpops Argentina CENSUS EPH survey (2013) Romania CENSUS 2010 Senegal CENSUS 2013 Ukraine LMS survey (2008) Individual migratory experience (all 4 Subpops) C/EPH: “In another country” 5 years ago / currently -Persons currently living abroad - Residents who ever resided abroad Place of residence 10, 5 and 1 years ago -Persons currently living abroad -Persons who were abroad in period Plural migratory experiences -> repeated mig XXPlace of residence 10, 5 and 1 years ago Amount of trips in the period Destinations of repeated migrations -> circular XCountry (1) other than Romania where person has ever/last resided Place of residence 10, 5 and 1 years ago Country of 1st and last migration in period HH members migratory experience (current migrants, left- behinds, non-mig) C/EPH: “In another country” 5 years ago / currently -Persons currently living abroad - Residents who ever resided abroad Place of residence 10, 5 and 1 years ago -Persons currently living abroad -Persons who were abroad in period

Other limitations Argentina CENSUS EPH survey (2013) Romania CENSUS 2010 Senegal CENSUS 2013 Ukraine LMS survey (2008) [Census cancelled] Date(s) of migration / return XMig: X Ret: Year when last settled in Romania - only to a sub- group* XMig: Year of last trip in period Ret: Year + duration of last trip in period Destination of last/captured migration C: X EPH: Where lived 5 years ago Country other than Romania where person has ever/last resided Place of residence 10, 5 and 1 years ago Country of 1st and last migration in period Access to dataAggregate data on geographical* distribution of returnees (no country) Aggregate data on geographical* distribution of returnees by country Microdata might be made available Aggregate data / Latest 2012 round still not available Most recent data (2015 as reference) 5 years / 2 years5 years2 years7 years / 3 years

Questionnaire Design 1)Meet survey objectives: selection + impact a.Topics of interest b.Subpops for comparison 2)Comparability a.Other return/relevant surveys b.Datasets at destination(to be matched – current migrants) c.Datasets at origin (to be matched – non-migrants) Returnees, left-behinds, current migrants by proxy Non-migrants, current migrants

Bank of questions / questionnaires comparison

Topic1 Item1Item2Item3 CRIS/MIREM MED-HIMS TOPIC

Bank of questions / questionnaires comparison Civil/partners hip status Date of marriage/ start union End of marriage/unio n Status at bio- time x CRIS/MIREM MED-HIMS FAMILY

Bank of questions / questionnaires comparison Civil/partners hip status Date of marriage/ start union End of marriage/unio n Status at bio- time x CRIS/MIREMT 1 T 2 MED-HIMST 3 T 4 FAMILY 3) Temporal dimension: when to measure things and why?

Time points for comparisons SELECTION (1 move) OriginMigrationReturnSURVEY Returnee(s) Current migrants OriginMigrationSURVEY E.g. Activity status at time1, time2…

Time points for comparisons SELECTION (various moves) Mig3Mig2Mig1 Returnee(s) OriginReturn2SURVEYReturn1 Mig3 Current migrants Mig2Mig1OriginSURVEYReturn1 E.g. Activity status at time1, time2…

Time points for comparisons IMPACT (1 move) OriginMigrationReturnSURVEY Returnee(s) Non- migrants OriginSURVEY Current migrants OriginMigrationSURVEYOriginMigrationReturnSURVEY Left-behind (s)

Time points for comparisons IMPACT (various moves) Mig3 B Mig2 B Mig1 A Returnee(s) OriginReturn2SURVEYReturn1 Mig3 Current migrants Mig2Mig1OriginSURVEYReturn1Mig3 Non- migrants Mig2Mig1OriginSURVEYReturn1 Mig1 Left- behind(s) OriginReturn2SURVEYReturn1Mig3 B

Relevant time points to consider (just returnees) Before migration (BM) – First migration (M 1 ) – First migration to country of interest, M 1DC – Last migration to country of interest, LM DC During migration (DM) & right before return (BR) – Last migration/return (LM / LR) – First migration to country of interest, M 1DC After migration/return (AR) – Last migration/return (LM / LR)

Pre-existing return surveys & datasets at destination Activity status BM 1 BLM DC DLM / BLRDM 1CD ALR MED-HIMS BM 1 (ref period) ALR (currently/ever) CRIS/MIREM BM x ETS ALRALR ENAMIR BLM BLRALR (currently/ever) LMS BLMBLM MAFE Complete history

Thank you! NEVER LOSE YOUR TEMPER