Multicomponent Nowcasting/Forecasting System of the Black Sea State G.K. Korotaev S.G. Demyshev, V.V. Fomin, A.I. Kubryakov,V.L. Dorofeev Yu.B. Ratner, M.V. Ivanchik, T.M. Bayankina, A.L. Holod, E.V. Plotnikov, M.V. Martinov S.V. Stanichny, V.M.Burdugov, S.V. Borodin, D.M.Solovyov, E.I. Kalinin, E.V. Davidova Marine Hydrophysical Institut NASU

Surface z = 0 Bottom : Rivers & straits, Valls Boundary conditions Governing equations BLACK SEA CIRCULATION MODEL

NStep=NStep+1 Temperature & salinity calculation NOAA-satellite SST assimilation Advective & diffusive terms of the current velocities calculation Sea level, current velocities horisontal components & energy calculations NStep=NStepF Atmospheric heat and water fluxes NOAA-satellite SST Wind stress S T O P Calculations results output Temperature, salinity, current velocity and sea level fields Management data input Model parameters and climatic data input Current velocity vertical component calculation Altimetric data assimilation Satellite altimetry Model initialization BLACK SEA CIRCULATION MODEL FLOW CHART

INPUT DATA AND IT’S QUALITY CONTROL

EXAMPLES OF SATELLITE AND METEOROLOGICAL DATA USED FOR BLACK SEA FIELDS NOWCASTING/FORECASTING Satellite altimeters tracks over Black Sea for 35 day period

METEOROLOGICAL DATA PREPARING SUBSYSTEM FLOW CHART Wind speed according to NCEP reanalysis data Wind stress calculation Data interpolation on model horizontal grid Wind speed according to QuikSCAT-satellite Meteorological data according to NMA & MHI nowcasting/forecasting Instantaneous fluxes calculations Data units conversions Climatic heat & water fluxes Wind stress Heat & water fluxes Data unpacking and format conversion Wind velocity Heat & water fluxes Data unpacking and format conversion Data unpacking and format conversion

WIND DATA INTERCOMPARISON QuikSCAT-NCEP wind module differences statistics W t (days) W N - W S WNWN WSWS NCEP-Chernomoeskoe meteostation wind module comparison NMA-NCEP wind stress differences statistics NMA

PREPARING OF THE SATELLITE ALTIMETRY DATA FLOW CHART Black Sea level anomaly data base supplementation Sea level calculation Water exchanging effects correction Dynamical Black Sea level reconstruction Interpolation of the dynamical sea level onto model grid Dynamical level of the Black Sea Black Sea dynamical level according to climatic data Sea level anomalies from AVISO-center (France)

CROSS TRACK SATELLITE ALTIMETRY SEA LEVEL ANOMALIES COMPARISONS

NOAA-satellite data received and prepared on MHI data receiving center Clouds filtering Temporal & spatial averaging Overhetting filtering Averaged SST PREPARING OF THE NOAA SATELLITE SST FLOW CHART

EXAMPLES OF THE NOAA SST DATA AND IT’S QUALITY CONTROL

MODEL OUTPUT & IT’S COMPARISON WITH IN SITU DATA DRIFTERS PALACE CTD-ZONDS

EXAMPLES OF THE BASIN BLACK SEA CIRCULATION & WAM MODELS OUTPUT

EXAMPLES OF THE REGIONAL BLACK SEA CIRCULATION MODEL OUTPUT Bulgarian-Bosporus region North-West shelf region Near coastal region of Russia South coastal of Crimea region

Anomaly errors VALIDATION OF THE MODEL SST

VALIDATION OF THE CURRENT VELOCITIES ON SEA SURFACE BY MEANS OF DRIFTERS DATA Zonal Meridional

VERTICAL PROFILES OF THE TEMPERATURE, SALINITY AND CURRENT VELOCITIES ON THREE HORISONTS TIME SERIES IN COMPARISONS WITH PALACE BYOUS AND CTD-ZONDS DATA 1600 м 750 м 200 м

INSTRUMENTAL TOOLS FOR COMPOSING, MANAGEMENT AND EXECUTING OF THE NOWCASTING/FORECASTING CALCULATIONS PROCEDURES PROJECT DEVELOPER STUDIO Group editor dialog window Subgroup editor dialog window Tools structureTools possibilities CalcMan – project developer studio TaskComposer – tool for task creating and editing CmEnjne – tasks executor tool TaskEngine – autonomous tasks debugger/executing tool External tools – additional utilities for different data obtaining and calculation management operations executing Tasks developing and structuring More comfortable tasks design Tasks debugging & logging Very flexible management of the calculations procedures with anyone sequence of interactive and automatic regimes combinations

TASK COMPOSER TOOL Task composer main window Comment editor window Command editor window Task viewer window Container composer window Container editor window

TASK EXECUTING TOOL CALC MANAGER TOOL Calc Man Engine main window Task debugger window Task executor window Task engine window EXTERNAL TOOLS 1.Task tuning tools kit (TuneTask.exe, TuneContainer.exe) 2.Internet data transferring tools kit (GetInetFiles.exe, PutInetFiles.exe) 3.Common Service tools kit (DecimateList.exe, SetContPath.exe, GenNames.exeClearLogs.ts6, …) 4.Projects Service tools kit (TuneAssim.exe, TuneDataDir.exe, TuneMapMesh.exe, TuneOut.exe, TuneTSUBC.exe, TuneNPCCalc.exe, TuneNPCHydro, TuneNPCRegion, …)

NOWCASTING/FORECASTING MANAGEMENT SUBSYSTEM Subgroup ALTIMETRY Subgroup NOAASST Subgroup METEO Task group DownLoads Task group WaveBasWAM Task group CircBasMHI Subgroup DualCoupling Subgroup OperativeStress Subgroup OperativeMeteo Archiving subgroup Plotting subgroup Task group OUTPUT Uploading subgroup Subgroup ALTIMETRY Subgroup NOAASST Subgroup METEO Task group PREPARE Task group CircNestPom Subgroup GeReM Subgroup RuReM Subgroup NoWesReM Subgroup BuBoReM Subgroup SCoCReM Subgroup FreeReM Subgroup ForwardCoupling Input management subsystem Circulation forecastings management subsystem Wave forecastings management subsystem Output management subsystem Validation management subsystem Sediments transport forecastings management subsystem Ecological forecastings management subsystem

CIRCULATION FORECASTING MANAGEMENT SUBSYSTEM TuneMeteo tasks TuneStress tasks CircPredict Tune model tasks Tune model tasks Subgroup OperativeMeteo Subgroup OperativeStress Prepared Input Data Archive Operative Input Data Archive Prediction Results Exchanging Archive TuneRegion TuneHydro Subgroup SCoCReM CircPredict Tune model tasks TuneRegion TuneHydro Subgroup NoWesReM NestPrep Tune model tasks SCoCReM Prediction Results Operative Archive Predict.bat NoWesReM Prediction Results Operative Archive BASIN MANAGEMENT SUBSYSTEMLOCAL MANAGEMENT SUBSYSTEM FTP-server

CONCLUSIONS System was tested during MHI scientific projects working such as «Techenie-MHI», «Operative Oceangraphy», EU projects – «ARENA», «ASCABOS», «ECOOP». Results of the modeling are showed real possibilities of the Black Sea mesoscale processes reproduction. Now the system is working in operative regime. Results of the surface temperatures and current velocities nowcasting/forecasting are presented on