New Directions in Seismic Hazard Assessment through Focused Earth Observation in the MARmara SuperSITE Work programme topics addressed: ENV Long-term monitoring experiment in geologically active regions of Europe prone to natural hazards: the Supersite concept16 - FP7-ENV-2012-two- stage. Project Coordinator: Prof. Dr. Nurcan Meral Özel Project acronym: MarSite

B) The seismicity of the Marmara Region from combined catalogues of KOERI and TUBITAK ( , M≥2.5). A ) The occurrence years and possible locations of historical earthquakes. Instrumental observation infrastructure of Marmara

The MARsite project proposes to identify the Marmara region as a ‘Supersite’ within European initiatives to aggregate on-shore, off-shore and space-based observations, comprehensive geophysical monitoring, improved hazard and risk assessments encompassed in an integrated set of activities to respond to all priorities identified in the ENV call.

OBJECTİVES MARsite aims to: 1) harmonize geological, geophysical, geodetic and geochemical observations to provide a better view of the post-seismic deformation of the 1999 Izmit earthquake (in addition to the post-seismic signature of previous earthquakes), 2) investigate loading of submarine and inland active fault segments and transient pre- earthquake signals, related to stress loading with different tectonic properties in and around Marmara Sea. 3) explore earthquake/landslide triggering mechanisms and tsunami hazard modelling. 4) obtain rapid source-mechanism solutions and slip models, 5) develop new algorithms for early warning and rapid-response studies, 6) establish a risk management cycle with the creation of a link between the scientific community and end users. 7) to develop novel geo-hazard monitoring instruments including high-resolution displacement meters, novel borehole instrumentation and sea-bottom gas emission and heat-flow measurement systems, in association with the relevant industrial sectors and SMEs.

Participant no. * Participant organisation nameCountry 1 (Coordinator) KOERI (Bogazici University, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute) Turkey 2 GFZ (Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum) Germany 3 TUBITAK (The Scientific & Technological Research Council of Turkey) Turkey 4 IFREMER (Research Institute for Exploration of the Sea )) France 5 INGV (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Italy 6 IU (Istanbul University) Turkey 7 KOU (Kocaeli University) Turkey 8 ITU (Istanbul Technical University) Turkey 9 CNR (The National Research Council) Italy 10 BRGM (Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières) France 11 Eucentre (European Centre for Training and Research in Earthquake Engineering) Italy 12 CNRS (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) France 13 INERIS (French National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks) France 14 AMRA (Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk) Italy 15 EMSC (European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre) France 16 ESA (European Space Agency) Netherland 17 Univ. of Pavia Italy 18 IFSTTAR (French Institute of Science and Technology devoted to Transport, Planning and Networks) France 19 GURALP Systems Ltd UK 20 DAIMAR s.r.l. Italy 21 SARMAP s.a. Switzerland

MARsite WPs 7 JICA-JST Meeting, 26 June 2012

MARsite will use the power of -dense seismological, geochemical and GPS networks -experts on PSInSAR and SBAS analysis -combination of the remote-sensing and ground-based data -developing and demonstration of new systems -Integration of different data sources, uses of data etc. -early warning and rapid response system for Istanbul -Real-time data provision during crisis period (e.g. aftershocks) MARSite The monitoring of the 'Supersites' should be conducted through a fully integrated conceptual approach based on collaboration with existing monitoring networks and international initiatives, developing new instrumentation such as in-situ sensors, and aggregating space and ground-based observations (including from subsurface), and geophysical monitoring. The project(s) will develop and demonstrate the next generation of geo-hazards monitoring/observing systems, and contribute to establishing comprehensive natural hazards observatories through a cross-cutting approach.

MARSite The projects will establish a chain from observations to end users. The outcomes will be applied to the phases of the risk management cycle relevant for this region. Geological Geophysical Models Hazard estimation.Collection of Multidisiplinary Data from avaliable networks.Developing of new systems.Contribution of SMEs Collobrative efforts in the frame of the Marsite EVENT Optimization of Risk Cycle under this project Risk Studies&Vulnerability Estimation Links to end users &Risk Mitigation Harmonzation&Re- evaluation of the avaliable data

WP1 WP1 Coordination and Project Management WP leader: N. M. Özel (KOERI) months Work Packages Coordinaton and link to other projects Data from available networks, Satellite data/Harmonization and modeling for hazard studies WP2 WP2 Land based Long-term multi-disciplinary continuous monitoring. WP months WP3 WP3 Long-term Continuous Geodetic Monitoring of Crustal Deformation months To develop new technologies and methodologies WP4 WP4 Establishment of Borehole Observation System And High Resolution Seismic Studies in the Marmara Sea months

To study the triggering between natural hazards, experiences from 1999 eq. (Avcilar) WP6 WP6 Earthquake-Induced Landslide Hazard in Marmara months To create a link to end-users WP7 WP7 Re-evaluation of the Seismo-tectonics of the Marmara Region months To understand the Marmara tectonics and upgrade the avaliable models WP8 Monitoring fluid activity and seismicity at the seafloor using existing autonomous instrumentation months Work Packages WP5 WP5 Real- and quasi-real-time Earthquake & Tsunami hazard monitoring) 0– 36 months To estimate real time hazard

Work Packages WP9 WP9 Early Warning and Development of the Real-time shake and loss information 0– 36 months WP10 WP10 Data Integration and Dissemination months WP11 WP11 Dissemination months

the locations of borehole (red star) earthquake recording stations (triangles are permanent KOERI stations; rectangles are TUBITAK temporary stations and red circles are the surface array stations, which will be installed in the frame of this project)

Establishment of Borehole Observation System and High Resolution Seismic Studies in the Western part of the main Marmara Fault in the frame of a EU-FP7 project titled as MARSITE

MARsite will adopt Advancing GEOSS Data Sharing Principles MARsite will adopt Advancing GEOSS Data Sharing Principles and will incorporate related GEOSS strategic targets defined as “Provide a shared, easily accessible, timely, sustained stream of comprehensive data of documented quality, as well as metadata and information products, for informed decision making….” in GEOSS Strategic Targets - Document 12 (Rev,1), page 8. The high level Data Sharing Principles represents on of the foundations for GEOSS, and their effective yet flexible implementation remains a major challenge. MARSite will be a good chance to experiment their application. The 10-year implementation plan sets out the GEOSS Data Sharing Principles: There will be full and open exchange of data, metadata and products shared within GEOSS, recognizing relevant international instruments and national policies and legislation –MARSite partners will actively share their data among themselves, through suitable tools such as the shared repository on the project web site, and will experiment and tune the data sharing models and interfaces that will potentially be used for data sharing at large within the GEO Supersite iniziative

Outcomes of the MARsite project:. Geodetic monitoring of 4D deformations in order to understand earthquake cycle processes, to develop probabilistic earthquake forecasting models and to constrain the seismic hazard models in the Marmara region; High resolution data acquired by a new generation deep multidisciplinary complete digital borehole seismic station; Rapid and quantitative ShakeMap scheme by implementing finite-source descriptions and calibrating with multiple geodetic/seismic data; Characterization of activated and reactivated Deep-seated Gravitational Slope Deformations (DGSD) determined through the integration of geological and geomorphological analyses with high-resolution DInSAR; Knowledge on the distribution of active structures in the Marmara Region and the amount of motion they localize; Geophysical, seismological, physical and geochemical data from automatic sea-floor devices (e.g. OBS, Piezometers, acoustic station and multidisciplinary SN4-type observatory) including data from periodical cruises for water column sampling and laboratory analyses, for seafloor degassing measurements; and Results on earthquake early-warning (EW) and rapid-response systems in the Marmara Region (Istanbul) with the addition of a pilot landslide monitoring and EW system and introduction of new space technologies for monitoring and assessment of vulnerabilities. Therefore, MARsite will surely have an important impact on the regional response for seismic risk prevention, but also plays a scientific/technical significant role as a European supersite.

JICA-JST Project (Japan-Turkey) Theme 1: Seafloor Observations for Earthquake Source Models in the Marmara Sea Region Subgroup 1.1: Long-term sea-bottom seismic observation 1.1.a Micro-Earthquake activity 1.1.b Stress field evaluation 1.1.c Seismic tomography Subgroup 1.2: Electromagnetic observation Subgroup 1.3: GPS-acoustic observation Subgroup 1.4: Geo chemical studies (water chemistry, radon, temperature, gas exhalations, current etc. Theme 2: Estimation of Strong Ground Motion for Earthquake Source Models Subgroup 2.1: Micro-tremor observation and subsoil structure Subgroup 2.2: Observation of strong ground motion Subgroup 2.3: Theoretical estimation of ground motion Theme 3: Experimental Study of Building Response to Strong Ground Motion Theme 4: Forecasts of Earthquake and Tsunami Occurrences in the Marmara Sea Region Subgroup 4.1: Incorporation of seafloor seismic data into Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) Subgroup 4.2: Simulation of large earthquake occurrence along the North Anatolian Fault beneath the Marmara Sea and estimation of possible rupture parameters Subgroup 4.3: Tsunami simulations and hazard assessment. Subgroup 4.4: Tsunami monitoring Theme 5: Understanding of historical large earthquakes at on-land branches of the western part of the North Anatolian Fault Subgroup 5.1: Trenching studies Subgroup 5.2: InSAR studies Theme 6: Effective Dissemination of Earthquake Hazard Information Subgroup 6.1: Earthquake monitoring in the Yalova-Izmit-Bursa-Sakarya area Subgroup 6.2: Rapid information with collaboration of mass-media Subgroup 6.3: Hazard and risk assessment with collaboration of administration Subgroup 6.4: Disaster Education Program

1. Earthquake Source Model 2. Tsunami prediction based on earthquake scenarios 4. Disaster education using research result visuals Istanbul & Local regions around Marmara Sea ⇒ Nationwide in Turkey Objective of JST Project JST superiority object Estimation of the source region Proposing a Disaster Prevention Plan against Marmara Earthquake on the basis of scientific research analyses 3. Seismic characterization and damage prediction Evaluation of linkage of the anticipated Marmara earthquake based on the estimated source region Disaster education program and organizing the Content Implementing the proposed disaster prevention plan by Turkish Government Development and enlargement of the numerical simulation Analysis of the anticipated Marmara earthquake and tsunami generation process Improvement of hazard maps and visualizations Seismic assessment: Seismic evaluation considering retrofitting and seismic isolation Creating reference materials for disaster education and for disaster prevention countermeasures Visualization Japan-Turkey Joint seafloor observatory Numerical modeling of the active Faults beneath the Sea of Marmara based on the existing observational data ・ Prediction of building Vibration ・ Evaluation of existing structures Integration of land and sea data: ・ Shape of fault and bathymetry ・ Friction characteristics ・ Plate motion velocity ・ Historical seismic activity Theoretical prediction of strong ground motion of the anticipated Marmara earthquake Estimation of fault shapes and fault brunches beneath the Sea of Marmara based on integrated data 20 % 0%0% 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 % Integration of the data observed in (sea bottom) and around (land) the Sea of Marmara Identification of the vibration characteristics of buildings based on design documents and experimental study On the ground surface (around the building) Microtremor and earthquake observation in and around the existing buildings (schools, hospitals, etc.) Estimation of subsurface structure In the building 1 st Floor and Top Floor source region of the anticipated Marmara earthquake Numerical modellingVisualization Preliminary numerical simulation Of tsunami and earthquake cycle ⇒ extraction of lack of data Determine each regions needs and problems Sharing experiences of earthquake – tsunami victims from Japan and Turkey Extraction of necessary information from rapid analysis Development of rapid analysis process Regional disaster prevention community Disaster management symposium Information dissemination Study Committee Broadcasting the preliminary information through mass-media, telecommunication and internet ⇒ Rapid response in the case of a disaster Disaster experience. Reflect the regional issues Awareness training and disaster prevention plan against Marmara Earthquake

Thank you yThank you Boğaziçi University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute