07/26/2010 National Petroleum Council Future Transportation Fuels Study - Task Group/Subgroup Overview September CSC Meeting Engines-Vehicles Subgroup draft

07/26/ Engines-Vehicles Subgruop – Final Framing Questions Supply, Volume and Mix/Portfolio  What constraints are there on vehicle/engine technology implementation, including volume, ramp-up, …?  What scenarios of propulsion mixes in the vehicle parc are able to meet the energy and emissions goals of the study? (Integration Effort ; Demand team)  What assumptions and drivers underlie different projections? (see also question 1 above)  How do the propulsion options compare in ability to meet transportation needs of consumers? (Integration Effort)  What is the potential impact of changes in driver behavior, such as reduced speed limits, on energy consumption and emissions?  How will vehicles/engine types phase in and out to enable greater usage of vehicles/engine types which utilize low-carbon fuels? (Integration Effort) Technologies, Barriers and Pathways  What technologies are needed for transitioning to vehicles and engine types that utilize low-carbon fuels?  What are potential vehicle increases in fuel efficiency over the period of the study?  What technology options will be combined in the portfolio to achieve this fuel efficiency?  What impact will fuel efficiency improvement have on vehicle cost?  Which fuel /engine synergies generate the greatest efficiency gains in 2050? (Integration Effort)  What are the development pathways for these technologies? Environmental Considerations  How do each of the vehicle options compare in potential for zero or near-zero tailpipe emissions? (Integration Effort)  Of the scenarios that meet the energy and emissions goals which has the lowest criteria emissions? (Integration Effort) Infrastructure Considerations  Of the scenarios that meet the energy and emissions goals: (Integration Effort)  which provides the lowest total well-to-wheels cost of transportation?  which requires the lowest investment (fuel infrastructure plus vehicle cost)?  How should gaps between the current state and future state be addressed? (Integration Effort)  What fuels or energy carriers are required to enable the greatest fuel efficiency increases?  What are the investment and financing requirements for the future state of engines and vehicle types?  What are the incremental costs of producing the new portfolio of engines and vehicles? Policy: What are the state and regional implications of the 2050 future state of engine and vehicle types? Security: Are there security implications? What could disrupt the supply chain /infrastructure and what mitigations could be in place, for eg, supply of raw materials, nationalization? Any infrastructure vulnerabilities (Assume rare earth metal subject handled by electrical subgroup) DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE For NPC Study Discussion Only

07/26/ Engines-Vehicles Subgroup – Final Scope Final Scope Engines/Vehicles Subgroup - Scope The focus of the Engines/Vehicles Subgroup will be to analyze and summarize studies assessing the fuel consumption benefits and costs for a range of engine and vehicle technologies. Included are: a range of spark ignition and compression ignition engine technologies; improved transmissions; reduced accessory loads; vehicle enablers such as low rolling resistance tires, improved aerodynamics, and mass reduction; and a range of hybridization options. Also included will be an investigation of how alternative fuels, such as ethanol, or changes in fuel properties, such as increased octane and cetane, can enable improved vehicle efficiency and how alternative fuels impact driving range and refueling time. Alternative combustion technologies, such as turbine and Stirling engines will be discussed briefly along with impacts of changes in driving behavior and Smart vehicles that can avoid congestion. Finally, the subgroup will establish a common vehicle baseline for evaluating vehicle technologies across the subgroups to ensure equitable treatment and evaluation of all the vehicle and propulsion system technologies included in this study. Technologies that are out of scope because they are covered by other teams include engines operating on gaseous fuels, plug-in electric vehicles, fuel cells, free-piston engines.. DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE For NPC Study Discussion Only

07/26/2010 Engines-Vehicles – Membership Core Team Alan Taub/Britta GrossChairGeneral Motors Norman BrinkmanAssistantGeneral Motors Clay PhillipsGeneral Motors Gary OshnockChrysler Jeff Jetter Honda Bill ReinertToyota Eric KoehlerFEV Mike LeisterMarathon Dominic DiCiccoFord Stuart JohnsonVolkswagen Charlie SchleyerExxon-Mobil DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE For NPC Study Discussion Only

07/26/ Engines-Vehicles- 60 Day Timeline Task DescriptionActual Date Finalize Draft Scope and Framing Questions30 August 2010 Core Team Bi-weekly Meetings Launched3 September 2010 Complete database of literature matched to scope30 September 2010 Complete outline of report15 October 2010 Compile first draft of findings for fuel economy and incremental cost30 October 2010

07/26/2010 Compare NRC study and EIA AEO2010 – Small Cars

07/26/2010 Compare NRC study and EIA AEO2010 – Large Cars

07/26/2010 Compare NRC study and EIA AEO2010 – Large Trucks

07/26/2010 Alignment required with Electric, Natural Gas, Hydrogen, and Demand on granularity of the light-duty vehicle fleet: small car, large car, large truck, etc. Need input on liquid fuel prices and greenhouse gas footprint from Hydrocarbon liquids subgroup for gasoline, diesel including impacts of octane/cetane increases and desulfurization Biofuel subgroup for various biofuels Interaction with multiple groups required to complete framing questions involve interactions with other subgroups and task groups 9 Barriers/Pinch Points/Dependencies

07/26/ Technology Lead Requirements / Recruiting Status Tier 3 - Stakeholders or Focus Group Members (tent.) Joan Ogden (UC Davis) Dennis Assanis (UM) Sandia: Jay Keller/Art Pontau (basic combustion) Oak Ridge: Ron Graves (applied combustion) Argonne: Larry Johnson (WTW, veh sim, hybrid) Tier 2 - Specialized Team members/ Contributors: EIA: John Maples CAR: Brett Smith EPA: Bill Charmley

07/26/ Current List of Reference Documents