The Hidden Dangers of ETFs November 10, 2012 - Not For Duplication Or Redistribution -

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Presentation transcript:

The Hidden Dangers of ETFs November 10, Not For Duplication Or Redistribution -

2 Reason #1 to Own Emerging Markets Market2011 GDP Growth GDP/CapitaPublic Debt/GDP 2012 GDP Growth (Est.) 2013 GDP Growth (Est.) USA1.7%$48, %3.3%3.8% EU1.6%$34, %-3.0%3.1% China9.2%$5, %9.6%10.0% India7.2%$1, %5.9%11.1% Brazil2.7%$12, %-2.0%3.3% Mexico4.0%$14, %4.3%6.7% Indonesia6.5%$3, %9.8%14.2% Source: CIA World Factbook and IMF.

3 Reason #2 to Own Emerging Markets MarketOctober 2009 P/E October 2010 P/E Recent P/E USA China Source: Motley Fool research.

4 Reason #3 to Own Emerging Markets

5 Reason #4 to Own Emerging Markets

6 The Problem with Emerging Market ETFs

7 The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Fund has 2 flaws: It’s BIG* and it’s DUMB** *37 billion of AUM as of 9/28/12 **It’s market-cap weighted, it thinks Korea is an emerging market, it considers businesses based on where they are HQ’d not on where they do business, etc.

8 Variant Views on Emerging Markets Exposure EEM Top 5 Markets (9/28/12) China (16.7%) South Korea (15.5%) Brazil (12.6%) Taiwan (11.1%) South Africa (7.9%)

9 Variant Views on Emerging Markets Exposure EEM Top 5 Industries (9/28/12) Financials (24.3%) InfoTech (13.9%) Energy (13.1%) Materials (11.8%) Consumer Staples (8.6%)

10 Variant Views on Emerging Markets Exposure EEM Top 10 Stocks (9/28/12) Samsung Electronics (Korea/InfoTech) Taiwan Semiconductor (Taiwan/InfoTech) China Mobile (China/Telecom) Gazprom (Russia/Energy) America Movil (Mexico/Telecom) China Construction Bank (China/Financials) Petrobras (Brazil/Energy) ICBC (China/Financials) CNOOC (China/Financials) Hyundai Motor (Korea/Industrials)

11 This report is provided for informational and educational purposes and is not intended to provide tax, legal, or investment advice. Nothing in the report should be construed as investment advice, an offer to buy or sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation regarding any security by Motley Fool Asset Management, LLC (“MFAM”), or anybody else. MFAM does not guarantee the suitability or potential value of any particular investment or information source. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. In particular, investing in emerging market countries involves risks in addition to and greater than those generally associated with investing in more developed foreign markets, potentially including inadequate governmental regulation and smaller, less liquid, and more volatile securities markets. Readers are responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy is appropriate or suitable for them and should consider their own particular situation before making any investment decision. MFAM, its employees, and its agents will not be liable for any investment decision made, or action taken, by anyone based upon any material published in this report. MFAM has made no determination that any recommendation, investment, or strategy mentioned herein is suitable or appropriate for individual readers based on their investment objectives and financial situation. Mentions of securities in the report reflect individual analysts’ opinions and are not recommendations of MFAM. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice and do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual readers. Forward-looking statements are subject to uncertainties that could cause actual developments and results to differ materially from the expectations expressed. Neither Tim Hanson, Bill Mann, nor MFAM holds a position in any security mentioned in this report.